Emerging tech analyst, AI News, Techno-realist, future tech enthusiast. Space-Tech, datacenters, quantum, defense and semiconductors. In 🇹🇼 From 🇨🇦
Joined May 2024
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Very grateful to have support for my coverage of AI and emerging technologies. One of the top Canadians covering the sector on my flagship Newsletter AI Supremacy.
How well can we hold $ASTS to these new Blacklift promises?
I mean, what's the track record?
There's a reason this stock has lost more than half of its value so far YTD in 2026.
1) Operational execution delays
2) Growing competitive pressures
3) Cash burn
4) Dilution risks
The 2021 SPAC is not flying high these days. History is not on their side unfortunately.
AST has struggled to maintain its planned launch schedule for its next-generation BlueBird commercial satellite constellation.
Deploying a global low-Earth orbit satellite network requires immense upfront capital. Now they want to build a rocket in 2 years? Ridiculous track-record says it's not possible.
Michael Spencer retweeted
This atrocious, fraud-adjacent execution track record has been my primary bear thesis for $ASTS
It was obviously sped up by macro/basket conditions.
TA helped generate my targets and refute Spacemob delusions.
The takeaway: NEVER invest in a company you cannot trust.
🤖 Made with AI
El CEO de $ASTS NUNCA cumplió sus objetivos propuestos.
Una locura.
Siempre me gusta ver este historial en las compañías, un robo👇🏽
NASA unveiled a suite of major contract awards, program expansions, and specific mission deployments, etc.. No surprises really.
@blueorigin
@FireflySpace
@Int_Machines
@ispace_inc
@LunarOutpostInc
@Astrolab_Space
@voyagertech
and some Defense primes.
Examples of contract sizes:
>Astrobotic: $297.9 Million (covering two surface deliveries)
>Intuitive Machines: $148.3 Million (one delivery)
>Firefly Aerospace: $144.2 Million (one delivery)
Michael Spencer retweeted
BIG @NASA Moon Base Update
New Missions:
- CAPSTONE2 on a @QuantumSpace_US tug on a @SpaceX Falcon 9
- @Int_Machines Comms sats on an @GoToImpulse tug on a @SpaceX Falcon 9
- @NASAJPL Moonfall drones on a @FireflySpace Elytra tug on a @BlueOrigin New Glenn
- Comms sats on a @BlueOrigin Blue Ring on a New Glenn
- @GoToImpulse lander with TBA payload on their Helios tug on a @RelativitySpace Terran R
- Lunar @Starlink on a @SpaceX Starship
Commercial Lunar Payload Services 2.0 Contractors:
- @blueorigin
- @FireflySpace
- @Int_Machines
- @ispace_inc-U.S.
- @LMSpace
- @northropgrumman
- @SpaceX
- @voyagertech_ (formerly @astrobotic)
Also, PROMISE (pictured) will fly to the moon! It will land on a @BlueOrigin Blue Moon MK1, SN5.
This is/was an Earth-bound twin of Curiosity, the Mars rover, used to test things on the ground before sending commands to the red planet.
Minicast will allow lunar infrastructure to communicate with each other. The contractors for this are:
- @HB_Robotics
- @Redwire
- @YankTech
For example, rovers could communicate with solar towers to direct themselves for re-charging.
📷 @NASA
Good breakdown of how to visualize this: teapawt.net/dpoddolphinpro/status/…
BIG @NASA Moon Base Update
New Missions:
- CAPSTONE2 on a @QuantumSpace_US tug on a @SpaceX Falcon 9
- @Int_Machines Comms sats on an @GoToImpulse tug on a @SpaceX Falcon 9
- @NASAJPL Moonfall drones on a @FireflySpace Elytra tug on a @BlueOrigin New Glenn
- Comms sats on a @BlueOrigin Blue Ring on a New Glenn
- @GoToImpulse lander with TBA payload on their Helios tug on a @RelativitySpace Terran R
- Lunar @Starlink on a @SpaceX Starship
Commercial Lunar Payload Services 2.0 Contractors:
- @blueorigin
- @FireflySpace
- @Int_Machines
- @ispace_inc-U.S.
- @LMSpace
- @northropgrumman
- @SpaceX
- @voyagertech_ (formerly @astrobotic)
Also, PROMISE (pictured) will fly to the moon! It will land on a @BlueOrigin Blue Moon MK1, SN5.
This is/was an Earth-bound twin of Curiosity, the Mars rover, used to test things on the ground before sending commands to the red planet.
Minicast will allow lunar infrastructure to communicate with each other. The contractors for this are:
- @HB_Robotics
- @Redwire
- @YankTech
For example, rovers could communicate with solar towers to direct themselves for re-charging.
📷 @NASA
Read the latest Update: nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-a…
Michael Spencer retweeted
Let the good times roll...to the Moon!
Firefly was selected as a vendor for NASA's $10 billion Commercial Lunar Payload Services 2 initiative, enabling us to bid on larger, more complex lunar missions in support of the agency's Moon Base program.
In this next phase, we’ll scale up our flight-proven Blue Ghost lander to deliver heavier cargo and science payloads to the Moon, a big step towards reaching the common goal of establishing a permanent presence on the lunar surface.
We’re excited to continue working alongside @NASA for the next era of lunar exploration.
fireflyspace.com/news/firefl…
Michael Spencer retweeted
***BREAKING***
Firefly just secured a spot on NASA's $10B CLPS 2 lunar delivery program.
It can now compete for task orders over a 10-year ordering period, focused on larger cargo landers and Moon Base infrastructure.
Firefly now has a seat at the table for the next decade of NASA lunar deliveries.
Michael Spencer retweeted
@NASA CLPS 2.0 is set: 8 companies, 10 years, up to $10B for commercial lunar delivery. Firefly, Intuitive Machines and Voyager are in — alongside Blue Origin, SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and ispace US. $FLY $LUNR $VOYG
nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-a…
Michael Spencer retweeted
BREAKING: NASA has just announced plans to deploy a nuclear-powered Moon rover to explore the lunar South Pole, send lunar drones into areas inaccessible to traditional rovers, and invest billions in lunar transportation infrastructure to support a permanent Moon base.
Lunar Cargo Delivery: Eight companies have been selected to compete for up to $10B in lunar delivery contracts, including Blue Origin, Firefly Aerospace, Intuitive Machines, iSpace US, Lockheed Martin Space, Northrop Grumman, SpaceX, and Voyager Technologies. The companies will develop and operate landers to deliver NASA equipment and infrastructure to the Moon.
Nuclear-Powered Rover: NASA JPL is developing PROMISE, a six-wheeled nuclear-powered rover designed to drill 1 meter below the lunar surface to extract regolith, or lunar dust, and investigate ice deposits and other resources, including in permanently shadowed regions of the lunar South Pole. It will also carry instruments to analyze lunar materials, temperature, and radiation. The rover is targeting a late 2028 launch for an 18-month mission. NASA awarded Blue Origin $94M to deliver PROMISE, with an additional $140M option.
Lunar Transportation: NASA awarded six lunar transportation contracts totaling approximately $1.3B to Arrow Science and Technology, Blue Origin, and Impulse Space. Orbital transfer vehicles will act as freight trucks across space, moving critical cargo toward the Moon, while lunar landers deliver equipment to the surface. The missions will also support the deployment of MoonFall lunar drones.
Lunar Communications: NASA selected SpaceX to launch communications satellites aboard Starship in 2028, testing technologies that could inform the development of a future lunar communications network connecting astronauts, mission control, and Moon bases.
Lunar Power Infrastructure: NASA is developing a Mini-Communications and Solar Tower (miniCAST) to provide power and communications infrastructure on the lunar surface, selecting Honeybee Robotics for energy storage, Redwire for solar power generation, and Yank Technologies for wireless power transfer.
ALT Source: NASA
Michael Spencer retweeted
Proud to help power the Moon Base. 🌙⚡
Redwire was selected to support @NASA's lunar surface power demonstration with our Lunar ROSA, bringing the same proven technology that just completed its final installation on the @Space_Station to the Moon.
Dependable power for a lasting presence on the lunar surface.
New awards. New mission updates. More progress toward a Moon Base.
We're advancing commercial lunar deliveries, a nuclear-powered rover, launch and orbital transfer services, and infrastructure to support a sustained human presence on the Moon: nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-a…
Michael Spencer retweeted
I THINK THE WORST INVESTMENT IN THE SPACE SECTOR IS $ASTS
$ASTS has no moat. It is not in CLPS, and it has no rocket. It depends on others to launch its satellites. Until now, SpaceX (Falcon 9) has handled it. From now on, Falcon 9 will no longer help it, and Starship will not carry its satellites either. Its entire fate depends solely on satellites. It is trying to compete with SpaceX.
Never forget how much the legendary investor Warren Buffett values the moat.
Warren Buffett (April 29, 2000, Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting — Omaha, Nebraska):
"We think in terms of that moat and the ability to keep its width and its impossibility of being crossed as the primary criterion of a great business. And we tell our managers we want the moat widened every year. That doesn't necessarily mean the profit will be more this year than it was last year, because it won't be sometimes. But if the moat is widened every year, the business will do very well. When we see a moat that's very tenuous in any way — it's vulnerable to attack — maybe that castle's going to get taken over and so on."
"We think of all our businesses as castles and we want a moat around them filled with piranhas and alligators to keep competitors away."
Peter Thiel keeps frequently warning his rivals even though his relationship with Elon Musk has been bad for 26 years — doesn’t that scare you?
Peter Thiel (2015 – LAUNCH Festival / This Week in Startups):
“I would never bet against Elon in anything. So, I think that’s sort of hard rule number one.”
Peter Thiel (2018 – Economic Club of New York):
“You should never bet against Elon.”
Peter Thiel (2018 – The Australian Interview):
“I would not bet against him.”
“And I wouldn’t bet against him.”
Peter Thiel (2024 – Piers Morgan Uncensored):
“The alternate view, I would say, is you should never bet against Elon.”
This is not financial advice.
Michael Spencer retweeted
Big @FireflySpace new
Firefly Aerospace $FLY and AST SpaceMobile (@AST_SpaceMobile ) signed a major 3-year rocket engine supply and technology agreement valued at over $1.3 billion.
Firefly will supply 36 rocket engines in total across AST SpaceMobile’s first three planned heavy-lift launch vehicles:
27 Miranda engines (first-stage sea-level propulsion)
9 Vira engines (vacuum-optimized upper-stage propulsion)
The stock is up 29% on the news.
I drill down into the details of why the SpaceMobile deal changes the entire trajectory of $FLY
Maybe the best coverage of this deal on the internet right now.
stockquest.substack.com/p/hu…
Michael Spencer retweeted
My @Stocktwits watch list after the crazy Friday day in space deals. $FLY
A rocket ship for emerging technology.
The most interesting day in space investing of 2026. Next week comes the earnings.
Pay attention to who went up and by how much, it's symbolic. Because it's not going to last.
Michael Spencer retweeted
Dave is one of the most natural YouTubers in the commercial Space sector.
I can overlook his obvious $RKLB evangelism 😂 because his coverage is highly likeable and easy to listen to. @daveginvesting
Alright, at the risk of being run out of town by an angry (space) mob, here's my thoughts on the big $ASTS $FLY announcement.
youtu.be/SFm8WrAa500
