ReshapeTech (@ReshapeTech) header
ReshapeTech (@ReshapeTech) profile picture

xTradFi 15yrs - Investing journal for small hedge fund. Current bets: Biotech, Critical Commodities, Robotics.

Joined December 2021
Photo by ReshapeTech (@ReshapeTech)Photo by ReshapeTech (@ReshapeTech)Photo by ReshapeTech (@ReshapeTech)Photo by ReshapeTech (@ReshapeTech)Photo by ReshapeTech (@ReshapeTech)Photo by ReshapeTech (@ReshapeTech)Photo by ReshapeTech (@ReshapeTech)Photo by ReshapeTech (@ReshapeTech)Photo by ReshapeTech (@ReshapeTech)Photo by ReshapeTech (@ReshapeTech)
Replying to @yq_acc
The single biggest problem with crypto: Devs got used to easy funding & aren't competitive with web2 startups For yrs crypto gave no need to deliver - useful products - sustainable revenue ..& yet multi Billion valuations Reality has arrived: create real value or leave
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if this is not 90% of ur ai portfolio for the next few years, weighted by how close they sit to potus/vpotus, u r doing it wrong
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Life is chosen suffering - that's all it is, we have to pick the suffering that gives us the most meaning in exchange. IF we do not pick, we are assigned a form of suffering; e.g. mediocrity in your career is a form of suffering. Being obese and unfit is a form of suffering. To live is to suffer, but being able to pick your choice of suffering is a form of bliss.
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you can't afford to not understand this
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Crypto sitting on 5 year support lines Great risk/reward But if it breaks down then its over for a while: new market structure ethereum:native
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Most asymmetric sectors to invest in rn: - Biotec - Robotics - Space (before SpaceX ipo) - Cash (to buy inevitable pullbacks)
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This hand-drawn chart is over 90 years old. Jesse Livermore sketched it in the 1930s to show his students how every speculative stock moves through the same numbered phases: – Points 1–4: Accumulation cylinder, smart money quietly buying – Points 5–7: The all-important action, breakout, volume, the rally begins – Points 8–13: The test before selling short, final euphoric peak, lower high – After 13: Distribution and collapse Look at where we are right now. Micron, SanDisk, the DRAM ETF, Oracle, SMCI, AppLovin, Nvidia – all sitting somewhere between points 8 and 10. Vertical moves. Record volumes. Headlines turning euphoric. Palantir is further along. Maybe 12 or 13. The phase Livermore literally circled and labeled "test before selling short." This is where the most money is made in the shortest time in any market cycle. Bull markets are won in this zone. Life-changing returns are compounded here. But it is also exactly the phase where Livermore lost three fortunes. Because the same energy that drives a stock from point 8 to point 13 quietly pushes it past 13. The setups today are real. The opportunities are real. The money being made is real. The sell rules still apply. – Trim into strength, not weakness – Take partial profits at the 20–25% mark – Cut losses at 7–8%, no exceptions – Watch for the climax run signature Make money on the way up. Just don't give it all back on the way down. Livermore wrote the rulebook on this. He still ended up broke. The chart never changes. Because the chart isn't drawing the stock. It's drawing the people who own it.
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Trump is telling us what to buy Here's a summary of all US Gov investments $MP $LAC $TMQ
President Trump is undefeated in the stock market. On May 8th, President Trump told everyone to "go out and buy a Dell." 19 days later, on May 27th, Dell was awarded a $9.7B contract with the US Pentagon. Today, Dell, $DELL, reported stronger than expected earnings and the stock surged +30%. Dell's stock is now up +80% since May 8th, adding +$120 BILLION in market cap. Truly unprecedented.
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Listening to @PierrePoilievre break down monetary policy on Joe Rogan, this is exactly the kind of conviction I stand behind. #cdnpoli
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AI = tech recession But a Renaissance in hard assets Since dotcom, tech got high PE multiples, from asset-light software with high margins AI permanently compresses software premium Hard assets (factories, infra, energy, mining, utilities) are hard to replace Atoms > bits
For 50 yrs we treated the supremacy of asset-light businesses as a permanent economic law But if AI commoditizes asset-light businesses, we’d just be reverting to the historical mean where value accrued to atoms, infrastructure, energy It would be a 50 year blip. An anomaly
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JPY falling = US intervention Trade: long: EM equities (benefit from falling USD) why not long Yen? Too volatile during intervention short: DXY (e.g. short USD/CHF) why not short USD/Gold? (gold sharp rally = pullback risk) Logic → Weak yen = carry unwind pressure (forced yen buying, risk asset selling) → Japan sells USTs to cover/repatriate → US can't afford 3rd largest Treasury holder selling → Japanese voters angry (import inflation) + Feb election = political pressure to act → US incentive: stabilise Treasury market, not defend dollar
Synchronized. A global reacceleration is under way and it is broadening. Details below. dannydayan.substack.com/p/sy…
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Synchronized. A global reacceleration is under way and it is broadening. Details below. dannydayan.substack.com/p/sy…
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Some life alpha: If you are determined, ambitious and hardworking, life will give you a lot of opportunities to succeed by allowing you to find spots in which you can press for an advantage. You can think of your day to day as mostly being uneventful as you press yourself up against the wall of opportunity. Months go by and often nothing happens. One fine day, without warning, a crack on the wall will appear and you will be able to reap what you have been sowing for the past couple of months/years. The time from pushing to reaping is indeterminate, random and extremely frustrating. Most people will give up long before it happens - for 2 reasons: 1) their patience is finite, fragile and thin and 2) they are easily distracted by the things that don't actually matter. (hint: MOST things in life don't actually matter ex-post) When you are chasing an outcome, you will find a hundred distractions in your path and conjure a million reasons on why you should give up. -- But if you are earnest about your goals and have the patience of a monk and the drive and tenacity of a warrior - the wall will break. Reality will crack under your will. Everything else is a distraction.
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the older i get the more i realize how simple a good life really is. wake up early. lift 3x a week. walk 30 minutes a day. eat real food. drink water. sleep well. read. obsess over something that matters. spend time with loved ones. avoid drama. be grateful. you’ll already be healthier and happier than 95% of people.
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Thiel called it
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We often talk about how “detached” financial assets have become from the real economy- how valuations can keep inflating indefinitely so long as the music keeps playing through each cycle. But the music always stops when people are forced to sell assets to fund their living expenses. That’s what triggers every credit crisis- and the catalyst is always the same: job losses. We’re now seeing layoffs at record scale. IBM just joined the list that already includes Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Intel, McKinsey, and Goldman. And ironically these cuts aren’t happening because growth is slowing- they’re happening because the cost of labor has fundamentally changed due to AI. In a strange twist, the very layoffs fueling these “efficiency gains” are what drive the same companies to outperform, boosting their ROE and forcing investors to own the engines of their own displacement. And the Fed knows it. No amount of rate cuts can bring those jobs back. No amount of reserve plumbing will refill those empty offices. No amount of SRF usage will reverse aging demographics. Because this isn’t a cycle. It’s a structural shift. And the inevitable conclusion is always the same: the case for Bitcoin is the case for a new relationship between labor and capital- one that encodes this “digital labor” into a truly scarce asset.
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DeFi sadly looks like Turkey Risk Balancer v2 got hacked for $120m despite: → 11 audits → from 4 top security firms & → 4+ years operating experience teapawt.net/CupOJoseph/status/1985…
Balancer V2 was one of the single most battle tested protocols in Defi. I feel sick
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ETH trade summary: buy (slowly, 50% over next week preCPI) - the flashcrash flushed leverage - most of the marker in fear - MM finished spot sales (rebalancing their exposure) Lower first? CPI on Friday? - volatility going into the CPI numbers this Fri is 'buy the dip' - add 50% pre CPI, then add/reduce if CPI is good/bad Trade levels - invalidate (stop loss) <3800 breakdown - confirm: short momo >4200 (short term trade) - confirm: long mom confirms >5000 daily close (long term trade)
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negative thinking destroys your brain being a silly goose and delusionally optimistic is the ultimate longevity hack
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Top meta's - Neobanks $ETHFi $aave @UR_global $XPL - Tokenised Real Estate $hood - Prediction markets $Flipr $Pcule - Privacy $ZEC $STRK (more new launches coming) - Perp dex #Lighter $Aster
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While every CT Kol is bouncing from bull to bear every week Blackrocks Bitcoin ETF quietly became the most successful ETF in history ..slowly, then all at once
$IBIT a hair away from $100 billion, is now the most profitable ETF for BlackRock by a good amount now based on current aum. Check out the ages of the rest of the Top 10. Absurd.
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