Scott McCafferty

Netanyahu and his allies have beaten the opposition in the Jewish Israeli vote. That's despite: - Presiding over October 7th - Netanyahu being on trial on charges of bribery and fraud - A cost of living and housing crisis - Attacks on the judiciary - Outrage over shielding ultra-Orthodox Jews from conscription - The Qatargate scandal - The disastrous Iran war - The Israeli establishment rationally believing that Netanyahu was making their state a pariah, and organising to get rid of him - The opposition overwhelmingly also supporting the genocide, occupation and illegal settlements If we include Ofer Winter's party - which pledged to support Netanyahu for prime minister, but hasn't crossed the threshold - then so far 51.5% of the non-Arab list vote went to the Netanyahu bloc. With 84.4% of votes counted, among the non-Arab list bloc, the opposition has only increased its share of the vote by about 1.6 points. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich stood separately this time, but are set to win almost the same combined number of seats as last time. The latter in alliance with Moshe Feiglin, who declared "Every child, every baby in Gaza is an enemy." The only significant shift is the surge in support for the Palestinian-led parties. But most of the opposition is opposed to working with them. Avigdor Lieberman, for example, has taken even more extreme positions towards Palestinians than Netanyahu himself. If they do a pact with the Palestinian-led parties, not only would it not last long, it would produce a huge right-wing backlash. That the opposition could on paper form an arithmetical majority with the support of the Palestinian-led parties - but absolutely will not - trashes the "well if the small minority of Palestinians who remained in Israel after the Nakba can vote, then Israel is a democracy for all its citizens" nonsense. A very likely prospect is that this will pave the way for new elections. The two right-wing parties which didn't cross the threshold would likely not stand again, boosting Netanyahu. The same huge mobilisation of Palestinian citizens of Israel would likely not transpire. Netanyahu and his allies would likely benefit from shock at the unexpected surge in support for the Palestinian-led parties. The opposition would be demoralised by its failure, and Netanyahu strengthened by having come out on top in this election. So it's best to bet on Netanyahu winning a coming election. What does all this mean? Any illusions that change can happen within Israeli society should long ago have been destroyed. The opposition would have continued the genocide, the occupation, apartheid and colonisation. But as Israel's support in the West collapsed, Israel's cheerleaders pushed the position that Netanyahu was the bogeyman, and that a shift in figurehead could allow the state to do a PR relaunch. Netanyahu isn't Israel, we were told. Well that's true in the sense that on many key issues, Israeli society is actually more extreme than Netanyahu. This baseless illusion is now dead and buried. There must now be a much more determined push for a total arms embargo and sweeping sanctions on Israel. Those arguing that Israel is something it plainly is not are now completely and utterly discredited.