Remains an interesting nanocap for sure..
Higher..
ChainRot is still in its early stages, and we’re just getting started.
We’ve shipped Video Coins, the Money Layer, NFTs, and more. Each one is part of what we’re building, but there’s still a lot more work ahead of us.
We’ll keep building, improving, and shipping. There’s much more to come.
If you’re new to ChainRot, this article breaks down what we’re building and the bigger picture.
Ooomph
# Black October
For anyone who knows me even somewhat well, it's clear that I am a 99th percentile tech optimist. However, the vibes have shifted for me quite a bit in the last 18 hours, and I feel a moral imperative to share what I'm thinking and feeling with my circles so that everyone can understand, and hopefully take seriously, what's happening right now. I think October 2026 will have many chapters written about it in the history books.
You know those scenes in financial movies like Margin Call where someone realizes that they're all fucked, and no one else sees it yet? And that person feels like they're crazy, and then suddenly everyone is pulling an all-nighter in a boardroom and freaking out? Yeah, that's kind of how this is feeling right now in the SF/Bay Area/AI circles.
We're 48 hours into what is being called Black October. In the last 2 days there have been several dozen cyber attacks which, in isolation, would each have been the worst to happen in an entire calendar year. Every sector from government to education to big tech and banks is being massively affected, and people are starting to freak out.
In a nutshell, what's happened is that frontier AI models have gotten to a point where they are as advanced as the most sophisticated programmers, with one critical difference: they can work 24/7, and you can spin up 10,000 of them with a single command and they'll work together tirelessly until they accomplish their task. The most advanced models today are from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, whose current best technology is so good that they haven't been able to roll it out to everyone yet because of the national security risks it poses.
Meanwhile, the best open source models (where anyone can just download the model weights and do whatever they want with them, uncensored) are slightly behind the frontier but still 90-95% as capable. These models, developed primarily in China, are being used by black hat hackers to wreak havoc on the Western capitalist structure. Presumably, this has been part of China's plan the entire time, and we're seeing its implications fall out in real time.
In red-pilled AI circles, we've been sharing and reading papers called things like "Situational Awareness" and "AI 2027" for the last year or so, which at the time felt a bit like near-term speculative fiction. They laid out the case for why Artificial General Intelligence (AI smarter than any human at any knowledge task) and Recursive Self-Improvement (models that are able to use themselves to get better) weren't half-baked future ideas anymore, but instead an inevitable outcome of the linear progress that's happening.
These papers would then talk about things like "takeoff scenarios," trying to envision how that moment would come to be and what it would be like when it happened. It would either be a "slow takeoff" that would play out over the course of months and quarters, happening subtly and only obvious to a few. Or, it would be a "fast takeoff" where it would pretty much happen instantly, like a bit flipping from 0 to 1.
From everything that I can see and am feeling, we are currently experiencing the fast takeoff scenario. Beyond the crazy security vulnerabilities that have come out recently, there have also been massive breakthroughs in life sciences, fundamental computer science, materials science, and pure mathematics that have all landed in the same time frame. While I still firmly believe that AI will be a net positive for humanity, it's more clear to me than ever that the societal and individual risk is very real, and is playing out NOW.
For as much conviction as I have that this is happening, the thing that's caused me to lose sleep is that I don't really know what to do about it, or more importantly, what to tell you, reader, to do about it. So, the best I can do is make a few suggestions that have always been a good idea but are more timely now than ever:
Set up 2-factor authentication for everything. I use Duo.
Use a password manager across your devices. I use 1Password.
Get an identity protection app set up. I use Alta.
Move your IoT devices to their own network. Claude helped me do this.
And last, but certainly not least, if you've been avoiding leaning into AI, see this as a catalyst to wake up and start using it. Don't just use the chat mode version of ChatGPT/Claude; click that Code/Work button and see how easily you can have AI write code to help you with your job. One of the biggest vulnerabilities was in a massively popular programming language called PHP, and the prompt that set it off was literally, "Find vulnerabilities in php."
This is an unprecedented time for humanity, but as we've done with many things before, we will prevail so long as we are kind, loving, and open-minded to the world.
Much love.
Major flaw in this thesis is that muvafcker has a “job”
$neet or nothing bro
🤣 yes!
Allow me to give you niggaz a lil history lesson.
CT used to be perp traders only and then the weird retarded side was "NFT twitter" with geeks rocking BAYCs [who got extremely lucky that some dogshit jpegs went up in the most braindead market conditions ever].
Nobody respected or paid attention to the NFT geeks other than the simple fact they LUCKILY stumbled upon some cash.
Then niggaz from there started launching their own collections and made a couple of million dollars.
Exit scams, more or less.
For A LOT of these guys, they TASTED the sweetness of grifting big bucks and got hooked to it.
Crypto entered a bear market and the NFT geeks became entangled with "Telegram Crypto" [where a lot of onchain kids would reside].
Telegram Crypto and Crypto Twitter were entirely different communities.
The TG onchain kids took in the NFT geeks because they could "kind of" see transferable skills [spotting "trends" [just fucking lol]/launching shitcoins to grift] etc.
Remember, before the PENGU token there was Pudgy Penguins NFT.
Before the Milady token [God knows how many variations there have been now], there was... just Milady NFT.
CT used to be a lot different and that's why "PLUMBERS" complain about it.
Niggaz stuck to their side, just like prison with Muslim Jihadis, Hispanic gangbangers, Aryan brotherhood etc. etc.
There were different compartments: CT/TC/NFT Twitter etc. etc.
We exiled faggots that couldn't trade large caps with size.
Then, somehow, someway, during the SOL onchain run,
All the Telegram Crypto onchain kids [who were mostly ex-NFT grifters] joined and merged with CT.
One by one, slowly but surely, they started "taking over" by the shifting cultural views here.
It was no longer about trading perps/buying spot altcoins with a convincing thesis,
It became - who can flash the highest PnL with the LEAST amount of money invested.
A.K.A. who could "impress everyone" that they have a 'skillset' that supposedly allows them to flip unrealistic Xs.
And since then to now,
They've replaced almost everyone who had a shred of merit and "they've" brought forth The Biggest Jesters to become the face of crypto.
That's just the simple truth.
Niggaz over here got colonized by scrawny broccoli head low IQ 5-second-hold-time dump-on-followers.
I wouldn't even REALLY say colonize tbh,
It's more like Israel taking over Palestine.
CT gave these BAYC dorks a new home, welcomed them in with open arms,
And they waited for the right time to steal the entire land.
We got Shabbat Shalom'd BIGLY by cringeworthy and crafty ratdogs.
~ Dr. Axius.
Crypto pretty much boils down to this ..
Replying to @dominic_w
Dom, no one gives a shit. Focus on your pile of shit. When is cloud engines? When is adoption? You bankrupted many investors and all you have is soon and tick tock and throwing shades at other piles of shit. At least other piles of shit are making their investors money.
👏
You’re confusing analysis with advocacy and responding emotionally rather than engaging with the evidence.
I’ve never defended kidnapping civilians.
Understanding the incentives behind an action is not the same as endorsing it.
I’ve presented documented facts, distinguished them from disputed claims and explained my analysis of the incentives.
You’ve repeatedly responded with talking points and emotional appeals rather than addressing the evidence.
I’m also humble enough to recognise that my personal opinion on these matters will make virtually zero difference to the outcome.
I’m not here to virtue signal, defend a side or pretend my moral outrage changes geopolitics.
I’m here to understand how the world actually works.
Who holds power, who finances it, what incentives drive decisions and who benefits from the outcomes.
If you think expressing moral outrage is a substitute for understanding those mechanisms, that’s your choice.
But confusing analysis with advocacy is precisely how people become useful idiots to power.
I hope my followers have learned something from this exchange.
I’ll leave it there.
Rob Smith retweeted
YOKAI. KIDS. SHART.
TOMORROW.
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT REGARDING solana:B86LTrZDrH8G9zqMvXzFfwH8txDy8Sy7TZabjabTkids and @kidsdotfun
spoke with @AxiomExchange finally and I have a call scheduled for tomorrow 1pm pst with them regarding @kidsdotfun integration
their engineering team promised me to fix the false positive flag on solana:B86LTrZDrH8G9zqMvXzFfwH8txDy8Sy7TZabjabTkids tomorrow, they requested for me to upgrade the contract of the kidsdotfun launcher and deploy it to solana mainnet which I did few minutes ago (program id: GKbCyNTFLnNQ4GgzgYuSkFwqBgzPt6AwHuyS1FFVReKG)
solana:B86LTrZDrH8G9zqMvXzFfwH8txDy8Sy7TZabjabTkids will become the main utility token for @kidsdotfun and the majority (90%) of the platform fees/revenue will go towards the buybacks and burns of The Black Sheep token.
the whole point of The Black Sheep is to change the regime. also there is no point for me to ever launch another token when I am locked in this one for 2 years with 75% of the supply, which will be used for becoming the number one place to launch and trade memes, fairly and transparently.
we'll also allocate small portion from fees to the first launch on KIDS - solana:UpBBfyC75u3kxDGWmmmW2yauk9YY3CqZhdt1KUDkids to support it and respect its legacy, as I promised earlier to the holders
@kidsdotfun is ready for public launches and will go live tomorrow
more detailed article on the way
.A meme coin moves because a few people decide to move it: the operator holding the supply, the caller with an audience, the wallet group with the bankroll. That decision is made off-chain. The chain only shows you its execution..
Ooph
The Audit Of The Memecoin Casino
Since late August we have recorded every trade on every pump fun and Stonk launch on Solana. Not a sample. All of it: 384 million swaps from 7.7 million wallets across more than a million pools, every bonding curve and every pool that follows it. That is over 56 GB of data and 820 million rows of market history, and it grows by 18 to 25 million trades, up to a million wallets and more than 60,000 new launches every day.
We measured each coin minute by minute. We scored every entry by what the coin did next. We trained neural nets on the result, then went wallet by wallet looking for the people who actually win.
The question was simple: can anyone see the big move coming before it happens?
The short answer is no. The long answer is worse than no, because the data does not just fail to find an edge for you. It shows, in detail, who holds the edge, how they use it, and what they do with you.
Start with a coin that has actually caught a bid: real volume, real buyers, the kind of thing that shows up on your screener. From any given moment, about one in ten of those doubles within the next 24 hours. The rest bleed, and the bleeding is not gentle.
Now take a wallet's first buy into a live coin. Every first buy, 22.8 million of them over a two-week window. In 17% of those entries the coin doubles before it drops 40%. Trade that mechanically, double or stop, and you lose about 19% per attempt after costs.
Call that the house hold. A slot machine keeps 5 to 10%. This keeps 19%, per pull, before any skill or selection is applied.
The reason is the shape of the payoff. A 2× pays you 100%. The failures do not cost you 10%; they cost you 50%, 80%, 95%. To break even you have to be right far more often than the game allows.
The cabal is real, and we can see it
CT calls it the cabal. The data calls it a cluster: a set of wallets whose first buys land within a minute of each other, on the same brand-new coins, over and over. We do not find them by name or PFP. They fall out of the trade stream all on their own.
They are there. Swarms of 450, 1,400 and 2,000 wallets that hit hundreds of launches a week, moving in within the first minute or two of a coin's life. Smaller, tighter groups of 7 to 50 wallets that pick their spots. Across daily refreshes the count has run from 9 groups to 33, with members rotating in and out as wallets burn and fresh ones take their place.
They are not guessing. The coins the big swarms pile into double 28 to 46% of the time, three to four times the base rate. Their own entries, across every coin they touch, run 50 to 60% to a 2× before a 40% drop, against 17% for everyone else.
That is what an edge looks like in this market. It belongs to a few hundred wallets, and it is applied to tens of thousands of launches with industrial regularity.
Copying them loses too
The obvious retort: find the cabal, copy the cabal. We did exactly that. A machine watches every launch every minute and flags the moment a known group piles in. Then we traded every flag the way a fast human could: in two minutes behind the group, double or stop out at −40%, out after a day.
Following the big swarms lost 41% per coin across 93 coins. The median result was −95%. Not because they were wrong; their coins doubled 28% of the time. Two minutes behind them is simply already the top of the move. They bought at launch. You bought the candle they are selling into.
Following only the groups with a positive track record still lost 11% per coin. Following one good wallet on its own lost 20% per trade in our back-tests. The single pocket that came out ahead, a handful of small, tight groups, made about 10% per coin over 16 coins. That is a few days of trades and nothing anyone should bet a bankroll on.
The cabal's edge is not information you can borrow. It is position. By the time their trade is visible on-chain, the thing that made it profitable is gone.
The best model we could build still loses
We also tried the honest version: no cabal, just prediction. Dozens of signals per coin every minute, price, flow, liquidity, holder behaviour, bot share, fed into neural nets trained on our own history and tested on days they had never seen.
It works, in the sense a quant would recognize. The top of its ranking doubles 26% of the time against a 10% base rate. Two and a half times better than chance.
It also loses money every single day. 771 picks over eight days; every day negative; −11% per pick on the same double-or-stop rule; the median pick down 45%; 55% stopped out within 24 hours.
The ranking is real and the P&L is still red. The losers are deeper than the winners are tall, and nothing observable at the five-minute mark separates the coin that keeps going from the one that reverses. That is the part worth meditating on: a model 2.5× better than chance odds is still a losing model.
Why nobody sees it coming
The reason is simple, and it should change how you look at every chart. A meme coin moves because a few people decide to move it: the operator holding the supply, the caller with an audience, the wallet group with the bankroll. That decision is made off-chain. The chain only shows you its execution, the swaps, the volume, the new holders, and by then the first leg is done.
Everything a trader looks at, from a screener to a chart to a wallet tracker, is a photograph of a decision that has already been made. The data is enormous and almost all of it is the crowd reacting. The informative part, a few hundred wallets' intent, is visible only at the instant it executes, and the people executing it are the ones selling to you a few minutes later.
Add 60,000 launches a day, and the future 100× at minute one is indistinguishable from the 59,999 that die. The casino does not need to hide the cards because it deals them faster than anyone can read and analyze them.
Conclusion
After spending thousands of dollars in API credits, VPS costs, Claude credits, etc the goal was simple: find alpha - if it exists - in order to be able to monetize it.
Instead, all we were able to prove is what we all have suspected all along - the meme coin casino is almost entirely cabal driven.
🫡 From the depths —
The White Whale 🐋























