Robin Willson

Top Overnight News The U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections, people briefed on the conversations said. WSJ Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal on Sunday to end the war, which Tehran is considering and expected to send a response to by the end of the week, an official briefed on the negotiations says. RTRS A senior Iranian official later said Qatar has not presented a new proposal to end hostilities between Iran and the US and that Tehran's policy of showing no flexibility over the nuclear issue remains unchanged. RTRS The US told ships to avoid unnecessary transits through the Strait of Hormuz. BBG The United Nations nuclear watchdog said it hasn’t detected any efforts by Iran to rebuild nuclear facilities damaged in US and Israeli strikes over the past two years, even as Tehran continues to block inspectors’ access to most of its atomic sites. BBG Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu edged ahead of opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot with more than 70% of the votes counted in the country’s tight election. Neither currently has a clear path to forming a government. The shekel and Israeli equities dropped. BBG Nasdaq futures climbed after SK Hynix’s blowout earnings and plans to return about $45 billion more to shareholders reignited the AI trade. Alphabet and Microsoft results and the Fed are next in focus. BBG The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held interest rates steady Wednesday, surprising financial markets that had priced in a near-certain hike, but signaled that further increases were likely. WSJ Beijing is rushing to shore up its struggling stock markets as China’s AI trade goes into reverse amid slowing economic momentum and a lack of large-scale fiscal stimulus. The CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks has entered a technical bear market, down 10% year to date and about 20% from a June peak. FT TPG is in talks to acquire UK group Ark Data Centres from Elliott Management at a valuation of about $5bn, in what would be one of the sector’s biggest deals of the year. FT Argentina’s government said Flávio Bolsonaro entered the country on Tuesday evening and then flew to Ecuador, countering media reports he had reached Miami. The US said it will issue entry visas to him and his family. BBG Being a close partner of the US no longer means funding its deficit. Countries and regions most aligned with the US bought the lowest amount of Treasuries in the first eight months of the year since 2021, down more than 60% from 2025. BBG OpenAI intends to buy Google's AI chips, according to a person familiar with the matter; separately, Oracle said Google TPUs will be available through Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. BBG Anthropic has picked JPMorgan to run the US retail leg of its IPO. BBG GE Vernova agreed to acquire Trench Group for $9 billion. BBG The UK bank tax hike is said to be temporary, with the surcharge less than 8%, according to people familiar with Chancellor Healey's plans. BBG UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti issued a thinly-veiled threat to relocate the bank amid Switzerland's plans to make it hold billions of dollars in extra capital. BBG Australia's trimmed mean CPI rose 1.0% q/q in Q3, lifting annual core inflation to 3.7%; a hike is now more than 80% priced for next week's RBA meeting. DB US Senator Warren (D) reportedly raised concerns over risks disclosed in Anthropic's IPO filings and is demanding answers to a series of questions ahead of its planned listing: WSJ US Transportation Secretary Duffy is to announce approval of a licence application for a USD 8.2bln deepwater LNG export port at Port Houston during a visit to Texas on Wednesday: Punchbowl South Korea fined Google (GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL) KRW 63.7bln for requiring in-app payments Goldman expects the Fed to skip in October and hike in December, saying the tightening in financial conditions is "only a bit more than is usually associated with one rate hike." Goldman JPMorgan's Feroli expects a hold with two hawkish dissents from Hammack and Logan, and sees a risk that Kashkari also dissents. JPM