X Factor: Win first down. If McCown is in third-and-short all day, Yulman never gets quiet. If the Wave tackles at the point of attack and forces throws into the secondary that just created six turnovers, the numbers can flip. Hall and Russ Callaway cannot fall behind the chains and live on third-and-long. UTSA will take that. They want four snaps, a first down, and another sustained drive. Johnson, does not need 40 throws. He needs to be on schedule, hit Hill, Brown-Stephens, and Lewis when the box loads, and not turn it over. The Memphis version was enough because the defense created short fields. The line is the swing unit. Sacks allowed have been a problem. That cannot happen against a defense that only needs a couple of negative plays to end a drive. If that five stays together and gives Johnson a clean pocket on first and second down, Tulane can run it and hit the shots. Lucas is the explosive. Turner and Daniels have the power and the closers. McClure, if healthy, is the piece they have been missing at times. Lewis is the vertical. Hill already has the explosive gene. UTSA has allowed big chunks on the ground to multiple opponents. South Alabama and others have shown the Wave can move the ball when the line holds. Red zone is the other leak for both sides. Tulane has to finish. Field goals in a possession-limited game are how you lose by 7 at home. Last time these teams were in this building, Tulane won 29-16. Last time they played, UTSA won 48-26 in San Antonio with McCown at his best. Different roster. Same building. Same problem: you have to get the ball and finish. X Factor: Explosives without the empty possessions. One sack-fumble or one red-zone stall and UTSA’s balance and clock do the rest. Three keys for Tulane: 1. Tackle the dive and set the edge. McCown, Henderson, Peterson, High. If the pile moves forward, this is a 30-minute UTSA game and the offense never sees the field. Third-and-6, not third-and-3. Force a throw. Do not let a quarterback who has been efficient all year get comfortable play-action. 2. Get Turner, Lucas, Daniels, and Lewis on the field together and feed them, and finish your drives. UTSA cannot cover all of that if the line gives them a hat. Hill should never leave. Lewis is the shot they have been missing. 3. Win the snaps you get. The line does not have to dominate for 70 plays. It might only get 55. Clean pocket on first and second down, a run that moves the chains, no turnovers. Third-and-long is where Duke and Kansas State got away. Stay ahead of the sticks and the yards-per-play UTSA is allowing becomes the story instead of the clock. Yulman will be loud! Play complementary, tackle, finish in the red zone, and steal the possession game. That is the only way a 3-3 Wave walks out of Yulman with the league leader’s perfect conference mark gone. #RollWave

UTSA Roadrunners: Year 7 of Jeff Traylor. They smashed UTRGV 45-16, won 31-26 at Texas State, lost 6-30 at No. 1 Texas, then ripped Colorado State 59-45. Won 16-14 at Rice, 31-24 over South Florida, and 38-34 over Navy. McCown threw for 359 and three scores against Navy; Will Henderson III and A’Marion Peterson keep the run game alive. McCown is the offense. 1,578 passing, 10 TD, 2 INT, roughly 69.5%. Henderson is at 562 on 94 carries, 6.0 a pop, four scores. Peterson has 303 rushing and more through the air. DJ Allen, Mekhi Anderson, and David Amador are the main targets. The Roadrunners score 32.3 a game and are balanced enough to attack both ways. UTSA is 30th in total offense and 36th in rushing. They are not a pure run team. They will throw it. When McCown is hot, the numbers say the defense can be had if you get them in third-and-long. If you do not, the clock and the balance matter. The defense returned limited production. Opponents are averaging roughly 200 rushing yards a game and 27 points. Navy just put up 477 total yards. Texas State, Colorado State, and others have run it on them. The front seven has been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks and disciplined runs. If Tulane gets the ball and finishes drives, the numbers say the Roadrunners can be had. If they do not, none of it matters. Both teams have issues. Only one of them is 6-1 and 3-0 in the league. Traylor is not going to reinvent Saturday. Spread, tempo, McCown on the mesh or in the pocket, Henderson and High on the ground, Peterson as the home-run option. Third down is where UTSA can grind. They convert around 37%. They do not beat themselves often with turnovers (plus margin on the year). McCown does not have to force it. When he does throw, the ball comes out quickly and on schedule. Do not give him free downs after missed fits.