Systems Trader & Mechanical Engineer | Navigating trading, markets and life | Girl Dad, Hobbyist Photographer, CU Buffs Alum

Austin, TX
Joined March 2010
My latest vibe-coding project. A tool that allows engineers to configure thermal simulations and heat sink design/selection for a given chip to make sure it is operating within its limits. I just geek out when I can create things. The designer in me loves this new ability.
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What is up with all the propaganda ads on TV from our government? Is this really the best use of taxpayer dollars?
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Don't sleepwalk through your trading journey. Find a trading style that fits your personality, your risk tolerance, and the life you actually want to live based on the screen time you want. The best strategy isn't just one that makes money. It's one you can execute for years.
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I've been using Claude a lot for my backtesting research and helping me to some statistical analysis on my strategies to avoid the path dependency issues you can sometimes see with a single backtest outcome. I asked it to create a motion graphic about how I trade just based on what it knows from my interactions with it and it came up with this. Pretty cool.
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Video shows Flock walking police through how to monitor a No Kings protest in real time. I do not have to agree with a single sign at that protest to say this plainly: Surveillance aimed at your political opponents today will be aimed at you tomorrow.
Ruh roh. Here is a leaked webinar hosted by Flock demonstrating to police how to track individuals in real time involved in the no kings protests. Maybe you’re thinking “so what?! I don’t go to those and don’t agree with those who did.” Let me remind you, a digital dragnet built to target your political opponents today will be used against you tomorrow. Once the surveillance state is turned on, it watches everyone.
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The side of the American people and the constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic. That’s what I raised my right hand and took an oath to do.
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I really have no idea why things move the way they do, and I really don't care. It is fun to speculate, for sure, and sometimes things are obvious. But in the long run I do best staying 100% technical.
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Ryan retweeted
Ro Khanna’s solution to taxing illiquid billionaire founders is so stupid it sounds like satire. Say you founded a private company valued at $5 billion. You do not have $5 billion (surprise). You own shares that might eventually be worth $20 billion, $500 million or zero. Government says congrats, pay up. You say, “Cool, except I don’t have the cash.” Ro’s fix? Pledge the shares to the government and borrow the money to pay the government. This idea is absolutely bonkers. The government decides what your private company is worth, taxes you based on its estimate, lends you money against it, and then takes the money back as taxes. You now have debt against the government for imaginary taxes and if you don't pay you forfeit and the own a share of your company. The government is now an appraiser, bank, creditor, tax collector and shareholder. Maybe we can fund more Learing Centers (I digress). AND...it gets even dumber. Under current federal tax rules, absent some special exemption, handing over collateral to satisfy nonrecourse debt is generally treated as a sale, which means another tax. So California lends you $250M against startup shares so you can pay California its wealth tax. Ten years later the company is toast. You can lose your company, lose your shares and still owe taxes on money you never had. And who exactly is valuing all of this? Professional investors struggle to value private companies when they have data rooms, preferred terms, board access and actual money on the line. Now government is supposed to put an annual mark on founder common and tax it? A $10B preferred financing round does not mean founder common can actually be sold at that valuation. Different share classes exist. Liquidation preferences exist. Dilution exists. Secondary discounts exist. Sometimes there isn’t a buyer at any remotely comparable price. So how do you solve this @RoKhanna? We already know how wrong these marks can be. Roughly 67% of unicorns that IPO’d in 2025 priced below their last private valuation. Yet somehow government is going to know the “correct” value every year. You take the risk. You quit the job. You work for years. You take dilution. Most startups fail and your shares go to zero. Government doesn’t share that downside. Then policymakers look backward at Bezos, Zuckerberg, Musk and Jensen, the handful of guys who actually won, and use them to rewrite the economics for every kid deciding whether to take the same swing. Heads, the company dies and government says “no crying in the casino.” Tails, you actually win and suddenly you’re an evil tech billionaire who owes government 5% of the paper mark every year. GGs. Ro has to defend the moronic economics. Bernie’s job is to make sure you’re too angry to examine them. “Fair share.” “Billionaire class.” “The rich.” Instead of asking whether taxing unrealized ownership makes sense, Bernie changes the question to whether billionaires have too much money. Don’t discuss liquidity. Show the mansion. Don’t discuss valuation or incentives. Show the yacht. That is class warfare. And it matters before the company even exists. Nobody knew Bezos would become Bezos when he started Amazon. Nobody knew Facebook would become Meta. Nobody knew Nvidia would become the most important chip company in the world. Policy written around the winners changes the economics for the next generation of potential founders. You aren’t only taxing Zuckerberg after Facebook worked. You’re changing the math for the 24 yr old kid deciding whether to spend the next decade trying to build the next one. America works partly because ambitious people from all over the world come here believing the upside is worth the risk. Leave the comfortable job. Start something. Raise money. Fail. Try again. And if it finally works, own a meaningful piece of what you created. If the new deal becomes “you eat all the downside, but if your paper equity gets big enough we start taking 5% every year,” don’t act shocked when some people stop taking the risk or take it somewhere else. Bernie and Ro love showing you the lifestyle and telling you what they deem “excessive” wealth. What they rarely show is everything sitting underneath it. Take Bezos. Show his net worth going up $20B and ask why one guy needs all that money. Alright champ, let’s zoom out. Amazon employs more than 1 million people in the United States. Independent sellers using Amazon support more than 2 million U.S. jobs and paid more than $100B in wages in 2024. So before you even get to Bezos’ personal tax return, millions of people are earning money because this company exists. Those wages generate income taxes and payroll taxes. Amazon’s sales generate sales-tax revenue. Amazon itself pays corporate income taxes, employer payroll taxes and state and local taxes. In 2025 Amazon reported roughly $12.4B of federal income-tax expense, $7.9B of federal employer payroll and other taxes and fees, and $7.5B of state and local taxes. Then there’s another $24.8B collected and remitted on behalf of employees and $33.4B in sales taxes. Roughly $86B moved through those reported tax categories in one year. Did Amazon itself economically bear all $86B? Obviously not. Customers pay sales tax. Employees pay their withholding. That's how this all works. The company created the jobs, wages and transactions that created the tax base. Bernie wants you staring at Bezos’ personal tax return as though none of that exists. The million-plus employees, sellers, suppliers, truck drivers, warehouses, contractors, construction crews, software companies and retirement accounts all disappear. And quick reminder: Bezos getting $10B richer because Amazon had a good day in the market does not mean $10B landed in his bank account. The market repriced stock he already owned. When he actually sells appreciated shares, that generally creates a capital-gains tax bill. Jensen Huang got insanely rich because Nvidia became insanely valuable. Nvidia also employs roughly 42,000 people, around 31,000 in R&D, and paid more than $20 BILLION in cash income taxes in its latest fiscal year. Nearly $17B went to the federal government alone. It also reported roughly $7.9B in taxes tied to employee stock plans. So Jensen got richer. Shareholders got richer. Employees got richer. Government collected billions. All four things can be true at once. Meta spent more than $72B on capex in 2025. That money went into chips, data centers, power, construction, engineers and contractors. Not Zuckerberg’s checking account. A lot of people make money when successful companies make money. That story just sucks for class warfare. It is much easier to show the billionaire’s net worth and pretend his gain was everyone else’s loss. And federally Sanders and Khanna want to do this every year. A 5% annual tax on wealth. So forget the valuation mess for a second and just run the math. Your assets make 8% and government takes 5% of the asset value? That 5% tax just ate 62.5% of your 8% gross return, before income or capital-gains taxes. Make 5%? Your entire nominal return is gone. Make 3%? You’re selling principal to pay the tax. Obviously people react to that. Investors demand more return, founders rethink where they live and capital goes looking for better economics. Which is a bizarre experiment to run when America is already winning on startups and innovation. The U.S. has roughly 950 private unicorns and produced more than half of the world’s new unicorns in the first half of 2026. California attracted roughly $191B of venture investment in 2025, ~60% of the U.S. total. Other countries spend decades trying to manufacture this ecosystem. Startup visas, tax incentives, special programs, anything to attract founders and capital. We already have it. Maybe don’t fuck it up. Bernie calls it “fairness.” Fine. Define fair @BernieSanders The top 1% earned roughly 21% of U.S. adjusted gross income in 2023 and paid roughly 38% of federal individual income taxes, about $823B. Washington spends $6.28T, annually, and already has a $1.8T deficit through July. I don't think you need more money. Before inventing another tax base, maybe explain where the money already goes and what outcomes we're getting for it. California spent nearly $24B on homelessness and nothing got better. Billions lost to medicare fraud. There is reported $200-400B of what we know lost to it each year. Not sure giving the government more money, especially California is a good idea. But taking another dollar out of productive private capital does not magically make that dollar better allocated. Other developed countries have already wrestled with this too. The number of OECD countries with individual net wealth taxes fell from 12 in 1990 to 4 by 2017. Maybe they all got captured by billionaires. Or maybe they learned something. Valuing private assets is messy. Liquidity matters. Capital moves. People move. Incentives matter. Tax income. Tax realized gains. Close actual loopholes. Audit the stuff you already spend. America became the world’s innovation engine because people came here, took huge risks, raised capital, built companies and owned the upside when it worked. You want more people making that bet. Not fewer. Be very careful messing with that machine, especially when the people asking for more of the capital are already almost $40T in debt. “He can afford it” is not economics. “Fair share” means nothing until you define it. And envy is a terrible tax policy.
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As the Government tries to normalize and celebrate CPI of 3-4%, please understand… ~4% inflation is a disaster. Your purchasing power is cut in HALF every 17 years. You're being brutally robbed.
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On some of my group text threads it’s like “eek people disagree about this political topic, don’t bring it up” (echo chamber culture). On others it’s like “ooh fun disagreement!” (idea lab culture). When you get used to the latter culture, the former seems so juvenile.
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ChatGPT 5.6 Sol basically one-shotted a dashboard for me that looks at all the SPY ETFs to see what is leading/lagging with the ability to drill down into each individual stock. I am completely amazed by these tools these days.
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This is gold
Reframe the word “regret” to a “lesson”. Regret keeps you out of the present, and is irrelevant & creates a negative mindset loop. A lesson you can adapt and learn from and benefit from in the present.
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Most Americans are trapped in the two party mindset. But just wait until 2032 when Social Security and Medicare is insolvent and they start cutting benefits from Americans even though you’ve paid in your entire working life by force. Yes that’s right, SS and Medicare will be bankrupt in just a few years. Congress makes the budget every single year and Congress is responsible for this impending disaster even though it’s the last thing they want to talk about and the last thing they want to fix. They have overspent your tax dollars by trillions and trillions to the point the value of a dollar is going down so rapidly that by the time Social Security and Medicare go bankrupt many of you won’t be able to support yourselves because the dollar will be so weak. The dirty little secret on how they’re going to handle it is this. First, they are going to take Social Security away from the Rich and that won’t bother the majority of Americans, but give it a few more years and they’ll be taking Social Security away from the middle class too because the compounding interest on our national debt is growing so fast and out of control that there’s no real way to fix it. And that’s when Americans will finally be so angry that they’ve had it, but it will also be too late. Most Americans don’t have any real savings for retirement so by that point not only will most Americans not get Social Security checks, but they won’t have any real retirement set up, and the value of the dollar will be so incredibly weak that it will plunge most Americans into poverty. And both political parties are to blame. Both Republicans and Democrats are doing this to Americans while Americans are too busy to notice. Republicans are going to tell you that you have to vote for them because they are the lesser of two evils but really they are both one and the same and operate together. Republican and Democrat voters are just fighting each other to their own demise. But if everyone were to break free from the fake two party system and demand real accountability from the people that they vote for then you might actually save America.
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These AI tools are so nuts. Just used Google Antigravity to port a Python data importing tool I built using Chat GPT that was pretty clunky into a native Windows app that now does these imports lightning fast and looks like it came from Microsoft. You can just build things now.
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One thing I noticed about @FreddyLA7 is that the camera is always looking out. Even in photos of him and his friends, they hide their faces. It’s a POV view of America without the selfish “look at me” vibes of most social media—an absolute masterpiece in engagement because it feels genuine.
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Capitalism honours your personal agency and requires your consent to trade or not. Socialism takes your agency away, replacing it with coercion and force.
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Feels about right
U.S. DOLLAR HAS LOST NEARLY 30% OF ITS BUYING POWER IN JUST SIX YEARS: NYT
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I'm not an electric car guy, but digging the design direction they are going with the M3.
The BMW M Concept Neue Klasse is nearly M's first electric M3. bit.ly/4ut65WP
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