Indonesia’s stock market is trading like a rugpulled memecoin.

You might be wondering why MSCI is so important to Indonesia. Basically, MSCI sorts the world's stock markets into certain lists. And essentially, "Emerging" is the category that trillions of index dollars buy into. Now, if you get demoted down to "Standalone", well, the index dollars won't have to buy you. Which is where they want to send Indonesia's market. Since 1997 only three markets have been demoted straight from Emerging to Standalone (skipping the mid tier). Those three were Venezuela (2006, capital controls), Argentina (2021, capital controls), Russia (2022, war). And historically, they don't come back for a while. So Indonesia is that proposed fourth. Do you know what Prabowo's response to that was? Indonesia "is not afraid of anyone and will not be intimidated." Well Prabowo should probably heed MSCI's warning (h/t FT). When you look at those three countries that got demoted, you might be asking what they had in common with Indonesia. Well, Indonesia is slowly building the infrastructure for capital control. Let us look at the facts: - this month they forced exporters to keep dollars in state banks - they gave a state company the sole right to sell coal and palm oil abroad from January - they cut Singapore's gas When MSCI decides next June, they will take this into account. Act accordingly.

Holy shit. Indonesia's stock exchange voted today... The committee needed to decide which stocks count as "highly concentrated," to kick out. They've chosen 80 NAMES which will now INCLUDE independent parties. Basically until now its members were officials from the capital market authorities, and the 'independents' are Indonesian academics, and F. Champman Taylor, a former partner at Capital Group who "is currently an adviser to Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund, Danantara." He was the representative of foreign investors btw. Basically what is happening is this: Danantara is Indonesia's poor attempt of a sovereign wealth fund, they hold company stakes. And the 80 names are shells where a crime syndicate owns almost EVERYTHING (which is what MSCI doesn't like). The committee then decides WHICH COMPANIES are shells - and the foreign investors' independent voice on this also works for the biggest shareholder in the market. Essentially, from November the exchange will investigate suspected coordinated trading and can FREEZE investor accounts at will. THEN buybacks without shareholder votes will continue to June 2027. In plain english: the state's adviser will help pick the list, then the exchange can freeze whomever they think is a culprit, and boards can buyback without asking. This is quite literally just a scheme to hold the index up. Do you seriously think MSCI is that naive? Nothing will save Indonesia until they rid the corruption.

They're calling it "Freak the fuck out and panic sell everything" chart.

Incredible. When Trump left for Florida this friday he asked: "Do we want to finish Iran off or just want to let it wither?" And: "We are getting everything we want." THEN, on Saturday after voting in Florida Trump was asked how far he was from attacking Iran. What was his answer? "We're thinking about doing it, and maybe tomorrow." Then: "Do you really think I'm going to tell you if I'm going to do it?" That's Trump's whole strategy in a nutshell. A simple information obfuscator. It really doesn't take much to realise he will just say anything to anyone whenever. But when you look at what Iran is saying, you see a little more structure. This weekend they were blaming USA for June's interim deal collapsing. In fact, Iranian officials call reports of a Strait offer through Pakistan "a lie and fabrication." The facts are simple. Today the IRGC shot down a US drone over Bandar Abbas (SoH main port). To put it plainly, Iran denies offering a deal, shoots at drones, and plans to hit American staff. And Trump thinks he's sly enough to say "wither" on Friday. Well this week will have key events. Israel votes on Tuesday and the Fed meets on Tuesday. Whoever you want to believe, NOBODY here is negotiating. Act accordingly.

Wow. Outlets are absolutely grilling Indonesia's president Prabowo. Let's look at the facts. - The Indonesian market is down 40% this year - The Rupiah is at its WEAKEST in 2 decades. The Economist attributes this to Prabowo's "erratic rule," and a labour market that's "worse on his watch". To be fair, you can't exactly disagree when there's been a structural falling of middle-class real wages and graduate unemployment. Something that I found crazy was the claim that "party bosses are considering moves against him." And that Prabowo won the elections "thanks only to the endorsement of his predecessor." I have to agree with @Kathleen_Tyson_ on this one... The attack on the rupiah & the stock market does seem to be a preliminary to a regime change operation. We looked into this quite extensively. Everything points to destability. The plantation seizures, Danantara swallowing state companies, 2% patriot bonds, single state exporter from January. And before you call out someone for this, I'll tell you now: None of it was done by MSCI, Temasek or the CIA. This was simply done by decree, in Jakarta, on the record. But tbh I'd be weary of the whole 'regime change' narrative as it's easy to assume the selling stops when office changes. But honestly, the selling will only stop when the decrees do. Read this post if you want to know about Indonesia. tscsw.substack.com/p/indones…

Indonesia is no joke. Remember a few days ago when their energy minister said he wouldn't hesitate to block exports to countries that "do not respect Indonesia"? Well, yesterday he did it. Indonesia has disclosed that they have cut 62 million cubic feet a day of gas to Singapore (from SKK Migas, Natuna and Sumatra). If you didn't know the importance of this, let me briefly explain. Singapore makes 95% of its electricity from gas. In 2025 almost HALF arrived by pipeline mostly from Indonesia. Essentially it's the one lever Indonesia has over it's neighbours. So what did Singapore have to say about this? Well they claim that these won't affect energy prices that much in the short term and that the cut is less than 2% of daily demand. Indonesia is attempting something I like to call 'maximum message, minimum leverage'. The thing they don't realise is that their next buyer will learn from this. Good luck.

Glad to see more incredible minds are looking at uranium. We are bullish.

Gold closed under $4,000 on Friday. Yields down, dollar down, gold down… Why? The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday. And with oil at $116, things are looking sticky. Gold does not pay interest, so when the market keeps on hiking, gold loses to the bond. But there’s still some nuances… Central banks bought 79 tonnes in August. And the 3-month average is 85 tonnes. The price is currently a rate bet, with the physical commodity being bought up by governments 4x the old pace. Then how do you make sense of all of this? Well we answered with our latest article. Everything comes down to patience. tscsw.substack.com/p/why-gol…

Lol this is getting ridiculous. Indonesia's fund, Danantara disclosed that they own 53% of BRI (the state bank that makes small loans). And on Thursday, they announced a buyback of Rp1 trillion from 22 October to 21 January. That equates to about 0.20% of its shares. And in the terms, every stock bought goes to MESOP, the employee stock option plan. Then the stock rebounded 14%. So you'd assume it was due to the buyback, right? Wrong, the day before the rebound, Indonesia freed over $10 billion of reserves for the SAME banks. Basically Indonesia pumped the banks with money to keep them artificially high, with the payback being a staff bonus, if anything. Crazy.

Interesting chart on gold

There are some insane accusations floating around Indonesia... According to Indonesia's former trade minister, Temasek and GIC (Singapore's two state funds) have been "working behind the scenes" to get MSCI to downgrade Jakarta. These are massive allegations. Temasek replied affirming that these claims have "no basis", are "patently untrue" and "no one from Temasek has ever reached out to MSCI in order to influence any decisions." GIC dismissed it too. And remember when Indonesia said that they might not renew gas contracts? How neighbouring states shouldn't "come begging"? Well yesterday Singapore asked 10 locally registered firms for information as it widens its probe into the Indonesian fires sending haze over SEA. So basically, Jakarta went from "our market is full of shells" to "Singapore did this" in LESS THAN A WEEK! I think we can agree that blaming a neighbour is what you do when you know you've fucked up. Indonesia has truly failed its people.

You promised yourself you'd buy when it was $5,500. Now you're silent when gold is below $4,000. Make that make sense. This is a generational opportunity.

This is crazy. If MSCI goes through with delisting Indonesia, about $5.6 billion leaves their stocks. That's almost 20 days of normal trading volume (Goldman Sachs). If FTSE follows suit, it's another $2.7 billion. What's interesting is that Jakarta is up 4% in the last few days, and our call on Mandiri is up almost 20%. Why? Basically, Goldman's huge figure is a 2027 event, on MSCI's decision in June. And it looks like the buyers have been the banks themselves. In fact, several listed companies launched buybacks. On top of this, Indonesia's central bank freed over $10 billion of reserves for the same banks to lend. To me this looks like the government is prioritising share price for now. I don't see this ending too well. Act accordingly.

Wow. Earlier in the week the Jakarta exchange met MSCI for some pressing discussions. And by Tuesday they had an answer. Basically, from 2 November, Indonesian stocks with highly concentrated ownership will be REMOVED from the index calculation. This equates to almost 20% of the index's weight. If you don't know yet, MSCI's complaint is that the Indonesian market is FULL of shells where a small syndicate owns nearly everything. This lets these criminals easily manipulate the price. Additionally, ANYONE holding 1% or more of a company must say whether they're affiliated with it. This is "a step in the right direction" many have said. And BCA says that it's "short term pain for potentially longer-term gain." You might be wondering who's left after so many companies go? Well, mostly the banks the state owns. Which is exactly what this video argues. Act accordingly. youtu.be/21-G0C_bXYI?si=zGvA…

Indonesia can't take a break! Investors are now demanding EXTRA INTEREST to hold Indonesian companies’ dollar bonds (h/t Bloomberg). It's now at the WIDEST since 2020, caused largely by MSCI's warning a week ago. You might be asking why a threat to delist Indonesian stocks would affect bonds? But the answer isn’t so difficult. We can take Bloomberg’s answer: the selloff is “fueling deeper-seated concerns about Indonesia's governance”... It's simple really. Questions about governance creates capital risk. And a verdict moves the cost of capital. This now means that every Indonesian company that refinances a dollar bond this year will pay more, simply because their president spent this week telling markets he's "not afraid" instead of fixing the damn issue! We actually looked into this a few days, where we said that the state premium is basically the price, and the state IS THE PROBLEM. The credit market is agreeing. Act accordingly.

Me when the government who shills billions in crypto is exposed for accepting bribes

Holy shit, Indonesia raised it's deposit facility rate by 25 basis points. They then CUT the share of deposits banks must keep at the central bank from 9% to 8% from November 1 and then to 7% from December 1. Do they think this is what's going to fix everything? Let me explain. The deposit rate hike's objective is to stop the rupiah from falling. Essentially, if you pay the banks more to hold rupiah, they presumably won't sell it. Right? But a reserve cut has the opposite effect, it frees about Rp190 trillion (about $10 billion) for banks to lend. If you've caught on, they are basically trying to hold up their currency with their left hand, and then flooding the banks with their right? Governments typically do this when they have two problems and one instrument. Ok, so then if Rp190 trillion frees, who get's it? The banks. And it's the three banks the sate controls. These are the same ones that hold most of the systems deposits. (Mandiri, BRI, BCA.) It doesn't take a genius to see what they're doing: the state squeezes its banks for dividends, the stock crashes, the central bank hands the same banks $10 billion of liquidity, the stock recovers. Talk about stockholm syndrome. Let's see how this develops.

Asia is calling yesterday's sell off "black Thursday". Nearly 1 TRILLION dollars across 6 markets was wiped out. Why did this happen? Well I can point at 2 causes as of now. 1. Overnight, Iran said 7 tankers were hit. That's 7 in 24 hours btw. And since Asia literally buys most of the oil that goes through Hormuz, they received the consequences. 2. AI stocks fell on worries that data center building slows as rates get higher and borrowing gets much more expensive. Considering Korea is the chip index, theirs naturally fell the most. But here's what will annoy some. Jakarta actually closed UP 1.1%. That's the same market that the MSCI is going to through out. Why? On Wednesday, Indonesia's central bank freed about $10 billion for its banks to lend. Our pick is up 18%. JP Morgan says that hedge funds have been selling global equities all month, and that short leverage is at the 99th percentile over 5 years. That basically means investors were waiting for a reason to drive prices lower. Act accordingly.

This is seriously important, and as with anything oil related, it will likely be buried. China has allegedly burned through most of their petrochem glut that they’ve been building over years of overstocking. Simply put, the war has choked the oil they run on. And with no doubt, this will create some squeezes in the markets. It looks like the aromatics chain will be hit the hardest. For those unaware, aromatics are the chemicals from crude that are made into tyres, electrical insulation, resins, plastic bottles, paintings… The list goes on. Prices for a large amount of industrial materials will likely rise (h/t @stuanovo). I mean, China's chemical overcapacity was quite literally the deflation the world has imported since 2022. It's not even an overstatement to say that every plastic chair, tyre and bottle got cheaper because Chinese firms sold surpluses overseas. That surpluse was one of the few things the war didn't have. Until now. I think we all remember in spring China exported their way out of the glut. Well no there's NO MORE. The glut is GONE! And the plants are short of feedstock. That means your dearest deflation is gone too. When we researched the Chinese refiners in September, we said that they can't exactly price a barrel that they can't receive. Well, this is literally the chemical version of that. Let's watch.