
Prof of Risk Analysis @UMich, Prof II @UniStavanger. Dad, runner, cyclist, cycle commuting advocate, backpacker. Opinions mine. he/him/his. 🇺🇦🏳️⚧️
Far too often on Zoom
Joined April 2020
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Quite the contrast. Woke up in a tent covered in frost at 28F this morning while camping with @boyscouts. Tonight? @INFORMS conference in Seattle. Two hours at home to hang the gear to dry and head to the airport. Never a dull moment. And I wouldn't change any of it.
New paper studying pre and post even evacuation is out. Happy to be part of this exciting collaboration. doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2…. @PamMurrayTuite
Managing risk to achieve system resilience. So critical. Yet the Crowdstrike/Microsoft failure has laid bare just how fragile many of our critical systems are in the face of IT failures. Recovery mode? Struggling, just like Windows at ORD this morning. @united @Microsoft
Training AI/ML under uncertainty? Try proper scores rules to get better predictive distributions. doi.org/10.1080/00401706.202…. Great to be part of this new Technometrics paper led by Dr. Shashaani. Uncertainty matters. Don't ignore it! @RiskScienceInfo @umichioe @NCStateISE @UM_CEE.
This is the nicest after-security waiting area I've seen at an airport. Greenville-Spartanburg Airport, SC. @GSPAirport
Our paper on AI for risk analysis has been published! doi.org/10.1111/risa.14307. Assessment of the use of AI for risk analysis and what its potential - and risks - are for use in risk analysis. Dealing with uncertainty is key, and AI currently does this poorly @UM_CEE @umichioe
Registration now for the Symposium on Risk Analysis, AI, and Autonomous Systems hosted by @UMich RAIDE. Open to industry, faculty, postdocs, and PhD students. April 15-16, in-person only. RSVP at craide.engin.umich.edu/event…
@UM_MICDE, @um_midas, @UM_CEE, @umichioe, @UMengineering
Kudos to @OspreyPacks, providing a lifetime guarantee on packs. Just had a second pack repaired (for free) after many years of cycle commuting use. Standing behind products and repairing them greatly reduces waste going to landfills. Avoid the throw-away culture!
Relaunching the web site for the Center for Risk Analysis Informed Decision Engineering at @UMich today: craide.engin.umich.edu. Kudos to @katekusiak for all of the work on this!
@umichioe @UM_CEE @UMengineering
Happy to see a paper with @Elnazkabir and Steven Quiring come out in Risk Analysis today - Adaptive Bayesian ensemble learning. doi.org/10.1111/risa.14211 @umichioe @UM_CEE @tamuetid
Flying through @Dulles_Airport ? Leave lots of extra time. Just experienced the slowest, most disorganized @TSA security screen process I've experienced in a long time. Zero line entering security and it still took 40+ minutes to get through!
Winter bike commuting in Michigan. Invigorating way to start the day. Of course it would help if the county, city, and university would work on treating the roads, bike lanes, and bike paths.
Ice storm. Local schools: closed. Government offices: Closed or delayed opening. @UMich? Open. Outlying roads are an ice slick. Risky drive in for faculty, staff, and students in outlying areas. Sidewalks on campus not fully salted. Good risk management decision @UMichPrezOno?
Otterpilot bots in your Zoom meetings? They can be set to log into all meetings in a person's calendar, transcribe the meeting, and send this to everyone invited, all without the user even attending. Zoom offers no sound way to block it. Great privacy policy @Zoom .
Seth Guikema retweeted
We had a very lively panel discussion on Risk science and Politics at the SRA Annual meeting in Washington, D.C. 11 December, see introduction slides by the panelists @SDGuikema, @RiskWilson, Felicia Wu, Marja Ylönen and Terje Aven:
drive.google.com/file/d/1Kpv…
Here are some main conclusions from the discussion, as seen from my perspective:
1) Should SRA take positions on public policy issues?
“SRA leadership has always declined to do so, believing that it would be impossible—and unfair—to try to represent the diversity of opinions within our membership in such situations.” Gail Charnley, SRA Past President (SRA Newsletter 2000(1)
This has not changed.
2) Risk science is mainly about developing knowledge. There is a fundamental difference between practices aiming at developing the best knowledge (science) and support of specific policies aiming at changing society (politics)
3) Risk science is engaged in policy analysis (e.g. analyzing strengths and weaknesses of alternative policies)
4) Risk science and SRA need to be much better on science translation: There is a strong need for suitable material and processes that can guide policy makers, decision-makers, politicians, … on issues related to risk and risk analysis. Currently such material and processes are only available to a limited degree.
5) Every individual has the right to endorse, support, vote for, etc. whatever policies they wish to
6) Members of for example a scientific committee (such as on food), will mainly act as scientists, but also make recommendations on what is acceptable risk, which is political
Seth Guikema retweeted
Thought-provoking talk by professor Roger Flage on the concept of ‘real risk’ in risk analysis (risk science) contexts at the SRA Annual meeting in Washington, D.C. 10-14 December.
His main conclusion was that we better avoid the term real risk as it ambiguous and can be replaced by more precise risk science terminology, reflecting for example that you would like to express that the risk is considered large, or that the judged probability for the relevant undesirable events is not negligible and the knowledge supporting this statement is relatively strong. As noted among several among the audience, it could also be that when using the term ‘real risk’ it just means that the risk is judged to be important or noteworthy.
Very exciting outreach and education program that three of the grad students I'm advising are involved in. Great to see coding being brought to high schoolers in Detroit!
che.engin.umich.edu/2023/12/…









