bitcoin:native held the 200 week moving average near $64K and is now retesting the 50 week around $81K.
That zone runs into the May high at $82.8K, so it's the most contested area on the weekly chart.
Weekly closes either side of it are what we're watching.
The Fed holds rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% in a 9 to 3 vote, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a hike. Chair Warsh reaffirms the 2% inflation target and offers no forward guidance
Eric Trump posted an ETH/BTC chart last Friday: "ETH is pumping hard! Crypto is the future."
The Trumps aren't tourists here. This is a family that made $1.4B in crypto last year, more than any US-listed crypto company earned. When they talk, it's not sideline commentary, it's core portfolio positioning:
→ World Liberty Financial, the venture Eric co-founded, holds ~$131M of ETH, its second-largest position
→ Roughly $594M of that $1.4B came from WLF
→ Most importantly is the chart he chose: ETH/BTC (not ETH/USD). That's a rotation call
ETH just went +13% on the week, double BTC's move, with ETF inflows behind it.
Some non-technical indicators that could signal we are nearing ethereum:native's bottom
Interesting data point.
bitcoin:native has bottomed in a midterm year every cycle since 2013:
2014 → -85%,
2018 → -84%,
2022 → -78%,
2026 → -48% so far
Everyone is deep in ETF flows, gamma levels, and funding rates. Meanwhile the pattern that's actually held for 16 yrs is sitting right in front of us.
🚨 BREAKING: US CPI comes in soft across the board
-Core CPI m/m: 0.0% (vs 0.2% forecast, 0.2% prior)
-Core CPI y/y: 2.6% (vs 2.8% forecast, 2.9% prior)
-CPI m/m: -0.4% (vs -0.1% forecast, 0.5% prior)
-CPI y/y: 3.5% (vs 3.8% forecast, 4.2% prior)
Inflation cooling faster than expected
$BTC
10 Macro Thoughts
Markets transitioned from war-trade to rate-trade. The signal is in the bond market, not the headlines. 👇
10/
On-chain: 80% of supply held by long-term holders, fresh high. Over half of supply at a loss, a level seen only near troughs. No bear ends without tagging the 200-week at 62.6K. Cycle location, not a trade signal.
NEXT WEEK: JOLTS, ISM, NFP.
NFP is the print that matters.
The full read is in this week's SDM Market Beat 👇
streamyard.com/watch/esJ6d99…
1/
Your bitcoin:native strategy is probably incomplete.
Buying Bitcoin is the easy part, but most allocators stop managing their position once the trade settles.
Idle #BTC is capital doing nothing.
The same coins can:
→ Generate yield through covered calls
→ Hedge downside through collars
→ Collateralize financing to unlock liquidity
All without selling a single coin.
2/
SDM sat down with @willreeves of @fold_app, one of the only publicly traded Bitcoin fintech companies on Nasdaq, to break down what it takes to build and manage a Bitcoin position at size.
Hosted by @TylerCompiler & @pete_rizzo_ of @BTCtreasuries.
Watch it here: treasuries.sdm.co/?utm_sourc…
3/
Whether you're still accumulating or ready to put what you hold to work, this session breaks down how your BTC can start paying its way and protecting your portfolio against adverse market moves.
Watch it here: treasuries.sdm.co/?utm_sourc…



