@SMASIMHO

Current Status: Full Port $NBIS Substack @nebulizerlabs Opinions are biased. Portfolio is undiversified.

 New York / Vancouver
nebius-tracker.vercel.app/
Joined November 2025
  • Tweets7.7K
  • Following191
  • Followers12.5K
1.1KMedia
Somehow quite a few of you decided to follow me recently, so I figured it's time I shared a little more about myself. How did I get so blackpilled that I decided to full port $NBIS? What drove me to that decision? Why am I on X? Here's the insider scoop.

Who is Nebulizer?

Article · @SMASIMHO
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Temporary Olympic medalist status in $NBIS knife catcher Set the limit order during degen hours before bed. Fractional shares for luck (impoverished).
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Filled some $NBIS shares @ $149.49 this morning after setting a “wouldn’t this be funny if it filled” limit buy last night. Honestly, could not believe my eyes when the Fidelity notification popped up. What were all of your lowest buys so far?
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How can you look at this post and not think a bot runs this guys account. Imagine regurgitating risk factors from an S-1.
*Walter Bloomberg
@DeItaone3h
$ANT - ANTHROPIC - DO NOT EXPECT TO PAY ANY DIVIDENDS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
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$PANW CEO saw Elon's neocloud FUD coming months ago. "Neoscalers will survive. Neoclouds won't" "Nebius is going to reach scale, will be called a neoscaler" $NBIS is not a neocloud. Never was. @nikeshgarera ( · ❛ ֊ ❛)
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How this week is going to feel as a $NBIS fighting off armchair analyst FUD courtesy of Elon and Chamath
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Insane that people still don't get it. If Elon's tea leaves are true, this could not be more bullish for $NBIS. 200+ of these neocloud guppies go belly up, compute scarcity gets even worse, right as agents send demand exponential. Even less compute comes online than anyone modeled. And no, Elon isn't hitting 13GW+. He's not buying up neoclouds. Half of what he does bring online is for internal use anyway. Who's left standing when the dust settles? You know my answer. Unlike so many of these other players, $NBIS doesn't have a capital issue for financing 1GW+ of buildout in 2027. This is a bit pointless since $NBIS isn't a neocloud anyways but humor me. 1. Meta Backstop. At 70% LTV this can finance ~175MW of Rubins @JensenHuang's stated 60M/MW buildout cost. 2. Customer advances. 70% of 2027 deals signed in Q2 contained 50-60% prepayment terms. 3. Half of ATM facility remaining. 4. Ability to tap bridge financing similar to Citi facility for short-term GPU procurement for individual site. Delivery → racking → monetization. Then roll into ABF at maturity against $40B backlog of hyperscaler commitments ($25B if you take out $META backstop).
Elon Musk
@elonmusk21h
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue. That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
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Look at all these people quoting @elonmusk writing word salad. You don’t pay for GPUs until your facility is commissioned and you’re ready to rack. GPUs are like 80% of your build costs. You would be annihilating working capital. Not even a proper example of stranded capital.
Margarita G
@Marg_GroismanOct 25
He is right. Look up the 100 MW of ready capacity in Santa Clara sitting unused for years waiting for the power connection to be completed. Everything is in there but nothing is switched on. They can’t be used for much else in the meantime … what a waste.
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How was this not already obvious? Imagine stringing together all those words just to describe $NBIS. "We are building a real company. Real company is measured by earnings. Healthy business is business that generates cash." - Arkady Volozh xitter.cf/ZaStocks/status/211453…
Za
@ZaStocks14h
Whoever can bring the most power and compute online while simultaneously generating earnings is going to win. It’s not just about who can spend the most, but who can also scale the fastest without destroying their economics in the process. This is the race of our time.
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It's quite amusing to see the generalist crowd spin yarn from a couple of remarks from @elonmusk. Headlines saying "neoclouds are cooked" are both right and wrong. Right because anyone with access to capital wants to be a "neocloud" these days. The term has become so bloated it's now used to describe all sorts of junk like $BIRD. Wrong because of the companies they lump together. If you're still calling $NBIS a neocloud, you've clearly been reading headlines instead of studying businesses. I highly encourage you to passively invest in indexes instead. When you've really done the work to underwrite a business fundamentally, you've also equipped yourself to underwrite it emotionally. When this happens generalist slop just rolls off you like water off a duck's back. I sincerely hope everyone gets to experience this at least once in their lives. If anything, for me the current disconnect between narrative and fundamentals is one of those "aha moments". I can clearly see the market's behavior laid bare for what it is. Irrational on the way up, irrational on the way down. The same herd mentality that drives prices to those irrational highs can just as easily drive them to irrational lows. The fundamentals haven't change. Only the narrative has. But you know what good ol' Graham said: In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it's a weighing machine. Narratives are fleeting. Fundamentals compound.
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Get your vote in for Nebulizer's $NBIS Office Hours! So far Sunday is in the lead. Stream starts next week! (⌐■_■)ᡕᠵデᡁ᠊╾━💥 『FUD』 xitter.cf/SMASIMHO/status/211386…
Nebulizer
@SMASIMHOOct 24
Thinking of streaming a Nebulizer's Office Hours where you guys can come ask me anything about $NBIS. Open to doing two sessions! One for Americas, another for friends in EU/Asia. Assume times will be between 7AM - 9PM EST. (I'm based out of NYC)
25%Saturday
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18%Monday
5%Something else
108 votes • 4 days
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Throwback to July 16th 2024. $NBIS says it aims to become a leading European AI infrastructure company. At NVIDIA GTC Pregame: "We want to be one of the largest AI Clouds in the World. We're already the largest in Europe." - Arkady Volozh They grow up so quickly 🥲
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X can be a bit of an echo chamber, but it is a very small echo chamber. This is how a lot of America see’s AI :) Still in the very early stages of enterprise, but even more so, consumer adoption. Maybe personal agentic wave will be the inflection point.
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All the models $NBIS Token Factory onboarded in Q3. Many with Day 0 support, matching that of inference pure plays @FireworksAI_HQ and @togethercompute. And inference is just one piece of what $NBIS is building. $NBIS is simultaneously scaling data center capacity, deploying next-gen GPU infrastructure, and expanding their broader AI Cloud platform. If this were easy, everyone would be doing it. I encourage y'all to see how many open-weight models AWS Bedrock and $CRWV actually support.
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$NBIS Weekly Review 10/19: So much happened this week this took me an 1hr+ to cobble together ( ´ཀ` ) 🏦 $NBIS Secures $3.5B Citi Credit Facility - 1YR bridge facility to finance GPU deployment - Bridge to ABF once eligible collateral is in place - Capital markets remain open for $NBIS 🔌 $NBIS already with 5GW+ reserved - Means 800MW+ of sites remain unannounced 🤯 1 GW+ of Veras in 2027 - Majority of capacity for next year is Vera Rubins - $20-25MM/MW/YR is the pricing floor with blend of GB300s, as Reflection already deploying - 2027 monetization could be materially higher ⚖️ 50/50 Spot & Auction vs. Longer-term contracts - Management now targeting a significantly larger share of capacity for short-duration workloads - Yet another catalyst for 2027 monetization 🔓 $NBIS Removes Spot GPU Price Ceiling - Customers could potentially pay MORE for interruptible GPUs than for non-preemptible ones - Compute scarcity is going absolutely bonkers ♻️ $NBIS Capacity-Rebate Pilot Live - Allows customers to release idle reserved GPUs into the Spot pool - Customers earn rebates while Nebius monetizes otherwise unused capacity - Improves GPU utilization and revenue per MW 🕋 $NVDA Announces DSX Run Pod - Accelerates Vera Rubin deployments - Modular AI data centers built with ecosystem partners - Cuts onsite installation from 6 months → 14 days 🇸🇦 50MW Saudi Datacenter - Located at NEOM's Oxagon industrial hub - Online starting in Q4 2027 🇺🇸 $BE confirms 100MW live soon for Vineland - Fuel cells + 123MW gensets - 200MW live on campus floor by EOY 📊 $NBIS Analyst Price Target Updates - BofA maintains Buy, $310 PT 🏭 @nebiustf onboards two new models - MiniMax M3.1 Flash, DeepSeek V4.1 Flash-1017 - Now ~110 models served ⚡ @nebiustf launches prompt caching for public API - Makes its on-demand inference offering significantly more competitive - Already seeing a massive surge in tokens processed through OpenRouter
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>Sources $NBIS Citi Debt Raise: xitter.cf/mvcinvesting/status/21… Tons of $NBIS Deets: youtube.com/watch?v=ElxZFG9l… $NBIS Spot GPU Price Ceiling: xitter.cf/SMASIMHO/status/211333… $NBIS Spot GPU Capacity Rebate: xitter.cf/romanchernin/status/21… $NVDA DSX Pod: xitter.cf/nvidia/status/21128824… Saudi Datacenter: xitter.cf/EndicottInvests/status… $BE Vineland Progress: xitter.cf/SMASIMHO/status/211360… BofA Price Target Update: xitter.cf/Bearlovesbull/status/2… @nebiustf New Models: xitter.cf/hanrui_w/status/211375… @nebiustf Prompt Caching: xitter.cf/nebiustf/status/211364…
NVIDIA
@nvidiaOct 21
AI builders need computing capacity they can put to work sooner. We introduced DSX POD at NVIDIA GTC Berlin: AI factories integrated and tested before delivery, enabling deployment at prepared sites in as little as 14 days.
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