Pathfinders in Policy and Practice
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Sahan Research retweeted
BREAKING: #Somalia’s former NISA chief, Abdullahi Mohamed Ali “Sanbalolshe,” has returned to Baladweyne via the Ethiopian border, amid plans to establish an administration in Hiran region independent of the Federal Government.
Sahan Research retweeted
#BREAKING
What a week !
Somalia now in severest full-blown constitutional crisis in decades.
A timeline:
💠 11 October: Opposition leader Sheikh Sharif lodges petition with Supreme Court challenging incumbent President's unilateral constitutional changes, electoral model and term extension.
💠 4 November: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) dismisses Supreme Court Chief Justice Bashe Yusuf Ahmed via Facebook announcement, appoints ally and ruling party JSP member to pre-empt adverse ruling on the opposition petition by the Supreme Court - a gross violation of the rules which give Bashe security of tenure, protects him from outright dismissal by the chief executive.
💠 5 November: A five-member Supreme Court panel of judges (minus Bashe) goes ahead and rules that HSM is in office unlawfully, that his term ended in May 2026, that the Parliament's own mandate ended in April 2026, and further directed that all political parties engage to agree a new electoral framework, before organising fresh elections in 90 days.
The verdict effectively nullifies HSM's unilateral term extension, invalidates both his electoral model (the so-called OPOV) and the April-May 2027 poll timetable.
Opposition alliance SFC members welcome ruling.
💠 5 November: A defiant HSM vows to press ahead with his electoral scheme. Ruling party and regime hardliners pick the cue and allege Bashe conspiring with 'foreign enemies' to subvert the state and democratic aspiration of the Somali people.
💠 5 November: Security forces reportedly storm Supreme Court; judges who made the ruling manage to escape dragnet, go underground; all airport police and airlines instructed to stop the lawmen from leaving the country...
Sahan Research retweeted
#BREAKING: Somalia’s Supreme Court judges have ruled that constitutional changes adopted in 2026 did not extend the four-year mandates of the current federal institutions. They said Parliament’s and the government’s mandates expired on April 14, 2026, and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s on May 15. The ruling declares decisions taken under their constitutional and legal powers after those dates invalid, while allowing the government to handle routine affairs in a caretaker capacity.
The judges directed political stakeholders to agree on a consensus electoral framework within 30 days and hold elections within 90 days. They accepted former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed’s challenge to mandate extensions but rejected his challenge to the constitutional amendment procedure because he lacked legal standing to bring that part of the case.
A stalled election process, setbacks on the battlefield and troop withdrawals are converging in Somalia.
The Somali Wire examines the implications for dialogue, security and the electoral process.
Read The Somali Wire at sahan.global/issues/the-soma…
Sahan Research retweeted
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has remained remarkably consistent in his commitment not to compromise on his controversial directs elections.
His pet phrase - "loo joojin maayo" (no stopping for anyone) - encapsulates that single-mindedness, determination to prevail, even at the cost of the nation unraveling.
The Somali Wire commentary this week looks at the grim prospects facing Somalia as the escalating political deadlock over elections now converges with mounting instability and violence.
sahan.global/issues/the-soma…
Sahan Research retweeted
It is important to clearly distinguish between the bilateral Ugandan forces and the Ugandan contingent deployed under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). The personnel currently redeploying are primarily bilateral forces operating under separate arrangements between the Governments of Somalia and Uganda. The Ugandan contingent serving under AUSSOM, however, remains in Somalia and continues to discharge its mandate alongside other contributing partner forces and the Somali National Army (SNA). Therefore, the redeployment of bilateral forces should not be misconstrued as a complete withdrawal of Ugandan military personnel from Somalia.
Today, I chaired a Tripartite meeting involving the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), AUSSOM and the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS). During the meeting, we reaffirmed our collective commitment to strengthening the tripartite coordination mechanism as a platform for enhanced cooperation, strategic planning, and effective logistical support to AUSSOM and the Somali National Army.
We also underscored the critical importance of sustained, predictable and adequate international support in advancing Somalia’s security transition, consolidating the gains made through ongoing offensive operations, and strengthening the operational capacity of Somali security forces.
Our collective efforts remain essential to supporting Somalia’s path towards sustainable security, lasting peace and long-term stability.
Sahan Research retweeted
Today in #Mogadishu, @AUSSOM_ Force Commander Lt. Gen. Sam Kavuma and Acting ASG & Head of @UNSOS_, Ms. Qurat-ul-Ain Sadozai, met with Somalia’s National Security Adviser, Amb. Awes Hagi Yusuf Ahmed (@HagiAwesAhmed), at Villa Somalia.
Discussions focused on the latest developments and the transition toward an orderly transfer of security responsibilities based on Somalia's priorities.
They reaffirmed the importance of close coordination and sustained international support, including through the Somali Security Forces Trust Fund, to strengthen logistical support for Somali-led operations, safeguard security gains, and advance Somalia’s long-term stability.
Sahan Research retweeted
#BREAKING
The rapid pace of the Ugandan troop pullout from Somalia has caught everyone by surprise.
@SahanResearch analysts believe the withdrawals are almost certainly ahead of schedule and point to a potential friction or rapture in relations between Mogadishu and Kampala.
"Certainly we are seeing a pullout whose scale and speed has caught many off-guard. Most likely this is pullout that is ahead of schedule," said Matt Bryden, strategic advisor and security expert at Sahan.
The rapid drawdown poses a big security dilemma for the federal government, itself mired in acute electoral and constitutional dispute
A badly-led and demoralised Somali Army will struggle to hold the FOBs being vacated by the UPDF.
Sahan in the media: The New Arab reports on Uganda’s troop withdrawal from Somalia, a drawdown that Uganda says will be completed by the end of 2027.
Read here:
newarab.com/news/uganda-with…
Shifting alliances and new drone capabilities are changing the course of Ethiopia’s conflict.
The Horn Edition examines the regional implications and the case for political accommodation.
Read The Horn Edition at sahan.global/issues/the-horn…
A guest commentary by Somali MP Dr Mursal Khalif examines how political tensions are shaping Somalia's security and state-building prospects.
Read The Somali Wire at sahan.global/issues/the-soma…
Sahan Research retweeted
Thanks to @SahanResearch for again featuring my article as the Editorial for this week’s Somali-Wire!
Desperation Conundrum:
How @HassanSMohamud is unraveling Somalia
“Leaving a fragile state—beset by deep-rooted clan grievances and significant territorial control by transnational terrorist groups—to resolve its complex political disputes under an entrenched, legitimacy-starved regime is a recipe for catastrophe. Ultimately, when HSM vacates office, the profound implications of his cumulative actions may render Somalia entirely ungovernable. Consequently, both regional stability and global security are bound to suffer severely.”
Thanks to The Trust summit for inviting @RAbdiAnalyst and @sahanresearch to participate in this important forum. Well done to the organisers for bringing together many accomplished participants and speakers.
Thanks to Trust Summit for inviting @RAbdiAnalyst and @SahanResearch to participate in this important forum. Well done to the organisers for bringing together many accomplished participants and speakers.
Great panel on peace and conflict at the Nairobi Trust Summit and listening to the sage analysis and wisdom of @RondosForAfrica and @MAWareSO
Grateful to organisers for inviting @SahanResearch along other Kenyan and international think-tanks and civil society.
October has long been one of Somalia's most consequential months, and this year it brings the close of the UN's transitional mission.
The Somali Wire examines the patterns behind the month and what they mean for the weeks ahead.
Read The Somali Wire at sahan.global/issues/the-soma…
Sahan Research retweeted
Somalia update:
Somalia's incumbent admin led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud late Thursday issued a timetable for parliamentary and presidential elections (April-May 2027).
The decision, announced by the electoral commission, was made without any final and binding national agreement between the government and the opposition.
It also comes against the backdrop of stalled national dialogue and negotiations, growing intra-elite, clan, regional divisions and escalating violence in some key pockets of the country.
All major opposition parties have in the last 24 hours criticised the move as unilateral and arbitrary.
Implementing a unilateral electoral process and timeline without the buy-in of the legitimate democratic opposition is risky and could further destabilise Somalia.
Sahan Research retweeted
The Somali Wire this week looks at escalating tensions in Mogadishu and FGS moves to 'disarm' opposition leader Sheikh Sharif.
Commentary, headlined "Using Force Against Sheikh Sharif a Bad Idea", cautions against a unilateral, rushed, heavy-handed disarmament campaign in Mogadishu, warns it could act as the immediate catalyst for armed insurrection.
Tensions are rising in Mogadishu as a disarmament dispute deepens between the federal government and opposition figures.
The Somali Wire examines the implications for dialogue, security and the electoral process.
Read The Somali Wire at sahan.global/issues/the-soma…
Somalia’s Federal Government faces setbacks in Bay and Gedo as political tensions and security challenges deepen.
The Somali Wire examines the implications for federal relations and Somalia’s security transition.
Read the latest Somali Wire at sahan.global/issues/the-soma…
