Spare account for @samfr in case it gets hacked again.
Joined December 2022
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New election briefing just out
A bumper edition of seat previews covering Hampshire and Kent. Previously almost entirely blue. Not this time.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p…
Going to write a proper piece on this in a few weeks but fwiw I don't think this is true (about the 75 MPs).
The Tory Party is fighting an election on the surface and a submarine battle for its future direction if, as expected, they lose on July 4.
“The party lurches to the right if we hit the magic number of 75 MPs”
My latest column for @theipaper
inews.co.uk/opinion/there-sp…
Sam Freedman retweeted
This, is as always, good from @Samfr, we don’t always agree on stuff, but on the tory southern discomfort we do
fwiw I think, see my thread on Kent seats, he is still slightly behind on a couple of seats but read his substack and make your own mind up
New election briefing just out
A bumper edition of seat previews covering Hampshire and Kent. Previously almost entirely blue. Not this time.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p…
Without their house adjustments this would be:
Labour 43%
Con 22%
Reform 14%
LD 10%
Green 5%
Similar to average.
JLP show same movement to Reform as others. This is the first fully post D-Day poll and doesn't show too big a drop for the Tories (though is the methodology that helps them most and they're on 24%).
NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, 7th-9th June
*Labour lead at 17 points*
Change on last week in brackets
LAB: 41% (-2)
CON: 24% (-2)
REF: 15% (+3)
LDEM: 11% (-)
GRN: 5% (+2)
Tables: jlpartners.co.uk/polling-res…
Sam Freedman retweeted
Sam's Newsletter is good value normally. However, the bumper content during this election
means the bang for your buck is so ludicrous, they're likely to be critiqued by the IFS.
New election briefing just out
A bumper edition of seat previews covering Hampshire and Kent. Previously almost entirely blue. Not this time.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p…
Sam Freedman retweeted
Apropos of nothing, which pollsters initially prompt for Reform UK?
Summary of how many parties are included in each pollster's initial voting intention prompt below.
Sunak may have left the D-Day event early but at least he thinks the right side won.
🚨 NEW: A ReformUK candidate has claimed the UK should have ‘taken Hitler up on his offer of neutrality’ instead of fighting the Nazis
[@bbclaurak]
Sam Freedman retweeted
Sunak was visiting Horsham to campaign today
Conservative majority 21,127
It’s 68th on the Lib Dem target list
NEW - Rishi Sunak vows to ‘fight on’ until last day of election campaign.
PM hits the campaign trail again this morning and says “don’t write me off” theguardian.com/politics/art…
How far do we have to get through the 21st century before the "21st century skills" guff stops? (This is from the Lib Dem manifesto).
Anyway who thinks Brexit is just going to disappear as an issue after the election isn't paying attention.
It may not have high salience any more for the general public but it does for people who are engaged in politics.
NEW
Liberal Democrat manifesto pledges to take the UK back into the EU single market
"these measures will help to restore the British economy... and are also essential steps on the road to EU membership, which remains our longer-term objective"
@LBC
One of the sub-plots of the upcoming Tory leadership battle is Braverman and Priti Patel fighting for the backing of the right of the party.
Patel said she would welcome Farage so Braverman does too.
Exclusive from @matt_dathan
Suella Braverman urges Conservatives to embrace Nigel Farage
‘We need to, in the future, to find some way to work together because there shouldn’t be big differences between us
‘I would welcome Nigel into the Conservative party. There’s not much difference really between him and many of the policies that we stand for
‘We are a broad church, we should be a welcoming party and an inclusive party and if someone is supportive of the party, that’s a precondition and they want Conservatives to get elected then they should be welcomed’
thetimes.co.uk/article/e61b6…
So @JAHeale notes that while it has been reported Patel would welcome Farage she has not said so directly, unlike Braverman. Agree that this is different, though I still think this element of the leadership race is why Braverman did go on the record.
I will not be joining the Reform Party.
Here’s why 🧵
1. I am a true conservative. True conservatives shouldn’t leave the Conservative Party.
2. I won’t betray the trust of those who’ve given time & resources to campaign for me as a Conservative. 1/5
express.co.uk/news/politics/…
If you're enjoying the briefings and seat previews, I would really appreciate some help giving this a push today, given that I'm still locked out of my main account.
New election briefing just out
A bumper edition of seat previews covering Hampshire and Kent. Previously almost entirely blue. Not this time.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p…