Charts | Macro Flows | Articles | History | Art | Music Not financial advice. Consult certified financial planners for any investment decisions.
Every Bitcoin Transaction
Joined April 2023
- Tweets8.1K
- Following100
- Followers750
- Likes7.8K
Pinned Tweet
The standard Power Law just draws a line. BACK-κ solves for the exact acceleration constant (κ = 2.452). The precise rate at which Bitcoin's adoption curve bends through time.
The B.A.C.K. (Bitcoin Acceleration Constant Kappa) takes the same historical data and instead interprets it as a parabola to take into account the Demand/Supply curve.
Right now BTC sits 38% below BACK-κ fair value — exactly where it sat at every major cycle bottom (2011, 2015, 2018, 2022). Every single time, it launched.
But this cycle has a new variable: the Minsky moment.
Japan is cracking. G7 debt is terminal. If sovereign stress hits while the spring is coiled:
🟡 Japan Soft Minsky → $1.2M
🟠 Carry Trade Unwind → $2.0M
🟢 BOJ QE Infinity → $3.9M
🔴 Full G7 Cascade → $7.2M
🟣 M2 Permanent Shift → $12.7M
The spring is coiled. The fuse is lit. The only question is how big the explosion is.🟠
Bitcoin, Elliott Wave view, 2020 → today.
Mar 2020 → Oct 2025 was a completed 5-wave cycle. The drop to $57.7k landed on the 61.8% retrace of wave V. If that was the low, Sep's rally was wave 1 and this pullback is wave 2.
Line in the sand: $57,718. 🧵👇
Sat Living⚡️ retweeted
TWO SOLO BITCOIN MINERS BEAT 1 IN 10M ODDS 👀
• Tiny Avalon Mini 3, 1 IN 10M ODDS
• Single Bitmain S23 Hyd, 1 IN 1.7M ODDS
• 3.125 BTC for each. Well deserved!
Bitcoin closed Friday at $75,747 — within $323 of four levels at once: the 50-week average ($75,774), short-term holders' cost basis ($75,700), and Strategy's average cost ($75,451). The True Market Mean sits just above at $77,700.
Bitcoin drawdowns keep getting shallower: −83% in 2018, −77% in 2022, −53% at this cycle's low in June — now −39% from the October 2025 top. 396 days past the peak, and still nowhere near a prior bottom.
Sat Living⚡️ retweeted
The Everything Melt Up Is Still ON - This is another opportunity - We will party more like its the late 1990s (A "comeback" Thread)
The market has been nothing short of brutal in H2, so I feel obligated to share some data I’m looking at in regards to the “everything melt up”
1) Firstly, if anyone has ever traded or studied historical melt ups you will know that during these you will see inter cyclical parabolic moves followed by brutal and aggressive pullbacks. This is what we're seeing right now in markets based on the data below (Yes its still the 1990s all over again)
Analog match below is fairly on point and indicates that the pullback we have seen ends fairly soon!
NFA
$SPY $QQQ $BTC $ETH
Sat Living⚡️ retweeted
Watch the next block fill from your phone. Every pending transaction sized by weight, coloured by fee band, updating live.
blockstream.info
What would Ludwig von Mises likely say about Bitcoin?
"Money must serve the market; the market must never be made to serve money created by the state."
"Bitcoin represents an interesting development in the history of money, for it demonstrates once again that money need not be created, directed, or sanctioned by government. Its value does not arise from the decree of a sovereign, nor from the confidence imposed upon citizens by legal tender laws, but from the voluntary judgments of individuals who recognize its usefulness as a medium of exchange. Like gold, Bitcoin cannot be brought into existence merely by political desire. Its limited supply places a restraint upon the arbitrary expansion of the monetary medium, and in this respect it stands in opposition to the inflationary practices of governments and central banks. Money is not a creation of the state; it is a market phenomenon, born of human action and the spontaneous development of exchange."
"One must nevertheless understand that no monetary system is sound merely because its supply is limited. The decisive question is whether individuals freely choose to hold and exchange it, and whether it can sustain its purchasing power through the changing conditions of the market. Bitcoin cannot abolish economic law, eliminate business cycles, or make men immune to errors of judgment. Nor can any monetary technology guarantee prosperity. But if individuals, acting without coercion, increasingly select Bitcoin as a means of preserving and transferring their wealth, the state has no economic justification for preventing them. The ultimate verdict upon money belongs not to governments, politicians, or central bankers, but to the people who use it."
492 bonds. 8 call options. 0 moats.
Jordi Visser’s post-midterm case for why Bitcoin beats stocks for the next 5 years — hedge fund deleveraging, P/E compression, oil down $20, and liquidity headwinds finally reversing. One page. 👇
youtube.com/watch?v=TDOyoS4S…
US jobs rose 165,000 in October vs 65,000 expected; unemployment 4.1%. December Fed hike odds rose to about 78%. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $411.9M in outflows Friday, $1.28B for the week. The US Labor Department sent a proposed rule to the White House that would allow crypto in 401(k) retirement plans, moving alternative assets including cryptocurrencies closer to retirement accounts.
MSTR closed down 9.29% at $129.30 Thursday as the Nasdaq fell 5.52%, its worst day since April 2025. BTC dropped 6% to about $75,600, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $430.2M in outflows. Bitcoin Core developer Cory Fields proposed 'quantum landmines' Nov 4: a quantum attacker would have to post matching collateral from a quantum-safe wallet before moving a vulnerable coin.
