Science Blog retweeted
Congratulations to all the Democrat victors tonight, and to all the lazy, worthless Republicans who let it happen.
How to cheat in an election 101/1010.
"I have no idea why ballots aren't fitting in our scanners"
Set the expectations low. Act extremely dumb and then follow it up with extreme incompetence to hide the election fraud.
👍
Everything is going according to plan.
Science Blog retweeted
In two days, nearly 1/2 million people have already seen the news about our latest paper, between the attached post and other quote posts on X!
Clearly, we've hit a NERVE.
A TRUTH NERVE.
The Climatistas are GOING CRAZY!
Pass this along to every man, woman, and child that you know.
The rise in atmospheric CO2 is from NATURAL SOURCES.
Net Zero is a TOTAL FRAUD.
You have been LIED TO.
CHEATED.
BILKED.
FOOLED.
DECEIVED.
BRAINWASHED.
BOMBSHELL
Fossil Fuels Did NOT Cause the CO2 Rise.
New peer-reviewed paper just dropped. 500 years of data. The verdict is in.
Fossil carbon's contribution to rising CO2:
effectively ZERO.
The entire IPCC/NASA/NOAA/EPA climate narrative rests on a claim that just got mathematically falsified.
Read it.
Share it.
The cover-up is over.
The full peer-reviewed paper:
papers.jcohler.com/keeling
Science Blog retweeted
Replying to @ScienceBlog3 @jimdtweet @rln_nelson @Kenneth72712993 @pauladamsalber1 @HavanaM10 @Willard1951 @priscian @aSinister @FChecker76 @FredHikes @DaleGribble_666 @karleastlondon @balls95652097 @B_Bolshevik100 @NewNormality20 @TWTThisIsNow @caseymurph1 @BubbasRanch @BrianvLowe @connolly_s @RogerCoppock @DanCady @jgorman2424 @badmoonrising11 @Robin_Hagues @fergy1999 @ladyspat1 @SpurglyD @stevenmosher @kuhn_reinhard @Over400ppm @turpinator929 @MystickTheater @claude_roumain @Voight_Kampff_3 @JimFish56837379 @Setophaga9 @CalvinZod @freddreise @FriendsOScience @DMDent @HuygensWill
I can't be the first person to teach you about ice core data right?
The REAL reason we are skeptical of ice core proxies is because of how they form.
Air “bubbles” in polar ice cores are not bubbles that form quickly like in a drink. They are pockets of air that become sealed off as snow slowly densifies into ice (firn densification).
Snow falls, gets buried, and is gradually compressed. Open pores between ice grains stay connected to the atmosphere until the density reaches roughly 0.82–0.84 g/cm³ (about 830 kg/m³). At that point the pores close, trapping the air.
High-accumulation sites (coastal Antarctica or parts of Greenland, e.g., Law Dome DE08): close-off happens in ~30–40 years. The transition zone itself can be only a few to ~10 years wide. This is why Law Dome gas records overlap modern instrumental CO2 measurements.
From 2000 - 2026 (present), shown below, there is a direct relationship between absorbed solar short wave radiation and changes in albedo.
Science Blog retweeted
BOMBSHELL
Fossil Fuels Did NOT Cause the CO2 Rise.
New peer-reviewed paper just dropped. 500 years of data. The verdict is in.
Fossil carbon's contribution to rising CO2:
effectively ZERO.
The entire IPCC/NASA/NOAA/EPA climate narrative rests on a claim that just got mathematically falsified.
Read it.
Share it.
The cover-up is over.
The full peer-reviewed paper:
papers.jcohler.com/keeling
Science Blog retweeted
Flooding on Oak Creek near Sedona, Arizona
facebook.com/reel/1616393593…
Science Blog retweeted
The Judge figured out that the state officials were lying to take someone’s children away from them. Committed Perjury. The State Attorney doesn’t seem to care. I wonder how many lose their Children to these people.
Paleoclimate Biases Matter
Do we really know as much about the past climate as we think we do?
Recently, I started a project playing with proxy bias settings to see how they effect CO2 over the last 2000 years.
It has another name. Marxism. Marxists are always at war with the wrong enemy, because they are actually the people who want to control you.
True.
Replying to @jimdtweet @ScienceBlog3 @rln_nelson @BubbasRanch @jgorman2424 @SmokeamHQ @ladyspat1 @pauladamsalber1 @HavanaM10 @Willard1951 @priscian @aSinister @FChecker76 @FredHikes @DaleGribble_666 @karleastlondon @balls95652097 @B_Bolshevik100 @NewNormality20 @TWTThisIsNow @caseymurph1 @BrianvLowe @connolly_s @RogerCoppock @DanCady @badmoonrising11 @Robin_Hagues @fergy1999 @SpurglyD @stevenmosher @kuhn_reinhard @Over400ppm @turpinator929 @MystickTheater @claude_roumain @Voight_Kampff_3 @JimFish56837379 @Setophaga9 @CalvinZod @freddreise @FriendsOScience @DMDent @HuygensWill
"You are denying that the warming is due to the extra CO2 we added."
I cannot "deny" that the 0.0011°C/yr of ocean warming is 100% due to CO2 forcing when it has never even been shown or observed that ocean water warming is caused by increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
The idea that the minuscule human addition of CO₂, a fraction of a fraction of a fraction, controls the climate is pure arrogance.
Climate models that claim they can override natural evaporation and the atmosphere’s resistance to radiative forcing are effectively perpetual-motion machines.
All while the primary greenhouse gas, water vapor, increases at roughly 1% per decade.
All models are build around models. Climate change is a foundation built without a solid foundation in circular modeled logic.
Models need constant adjustment to maintain continuity with climate observations and we have political policies that are directly effecting human survival, not because of the magical thermodynamics of climate change but on the fear propaganda and morons who give government more power and thereby steal personal freedoms as a result.
At the current pace, this insanity will lead to dictatorships, socialism and a complete breakdown of society within the next 5 to 10 years.
Climate activism, is unsustainable and damaging to the environment. And if they really wanted to solve the supposed energy crisis, they would build nuclear energy plants everywhere.
There's no such thing as clean energy.
It's just that there are cheaper ways to get it and solar and wind aren't it.
In the end, green technology is unreliable and the backup systems have to compensate. Same expense.
And that's just not the way to achieve energy independence.
A new way to think about atmospheric warming is to look at the absorbed solar energy, rather that looking so much at the exhaust or implied sensitivity by following the Top of Atmosphere (TOA) imbalance.
Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) alone is a ripple (R² 0.10); albedo-driven ASR carries the trend for the last 26 years using observational satellite and ground station data.
In some ways, it's a model forward approach instead of a model backward guess.
In GHG theory only 47.7% of the surface flux change arrives at TOA as longwave (TEFAC). The rest is adiabatic attenuation with height (a change in geometry) a pressure-atmosphere effect, not photons stored by CO2. That missing longwave is then booked as “radiative forcing.”
Based on this, I think there are two very strong arguments that TSI has increased since 1910, with a short leveling off from 1944 to around 1970, followed by an increase. The biggest change to the atmosphere has not been the added CO2, but the addition of approximately 1% more water vapor (WV) per decade. In fact, this is what ground station data actually reads, and the public generally confuses this with back radiation from CO2. Most of the back radiation is from WV.
Two CERES-era reconstructions have now confirmed record-low 2023 Bond albedo and remains as the best explanation for the current warming trend.
(Note: I have reproduced all their work and updated the data to July of 2026 and will continue to update my labs over time.)
I get asked, "what causes low bond albedo"; and the answer is that we simply don't know what causes changes in albedo or rather why there are less low-level clouds appearing over the oceans. But, it isn't for a lack of WV and likely has something to do with space radiation, primarily galactic cosmic rays (high-energy charged particles from outside the solar system) and solar energetic particles which then interacts with Earth's atmosphere in ways that can influence cloud formation and properties.
Replying to @ladyspat1 @SmokeamHQ @BubbasRanch @jimdtweet @rln_nelson @pauladamsalber1 @Kenneth72712993 @HavanaM10 @Willard1951 @priscian @aSinister @FChecker76 @FredHikes @DaleGribble_666 @karleastlondon @balls95652097 @B_Bolshevik100 @NewNormality20 @TWTThisIsNow @caseymurph1 @BrianvLowe @connolly_s @RogerCoppock @DanCady @jgorman2424 @badmoonrising11 @Robin_Hagues @fergy1999 @SpurglyD @stevenmosher @kuhn_reinhard @Over400ppm @turpinator929 @MystickTheater @claude_roumain @Voight_Kampff_3 @JimFish56837379 @Setophaga9 @CalvinZod @freddreise @FriendsOScience @DMDent @HuygensWill
Yes, kinetic thermodynamic transfers are a very important part involving collisions are essentially moving heat to GHG molecules which can then transfer the energy to space.
The basic thermodynamics of convection, conduction and radiation are appliecd in the thermodynamic processes (adiabatic, isothermal, isobaric and isochoric).
Adiabatic processes dominate vertical motions and convection in the free atmosphere; isobaric heating/cooling is important near the surface and in horizontal transport; pure isothermal and isochoric processes are secondary or local approximations.
Radiation, convection (including latent heat), and conduction govern the overall energy budget, with radiation setting the top-of-atmosphere balance.
I've recently shifted the way I think about energy budgets from looking at the exhaust and then modeling backwards to look first at the absorbed shortwave energy and then modeling forward toward the exhaust.
I think this is a fundamental reorganization of how we look at climate.
A forcing theory needs temperature to follow the top of atmosphere (TOA) imbalance.
I've recently started to track the absorbed shortwave instead. TSI alone is a ripple (R² 0.10); albedo-driven ASR carries the trend. Surface σT⁴ changes more than TOA longwave.
TEFAC = 0.477: only 47.7% of the surface flux change arrives at TOA as OLR. The rest is adiabatic attenuation with height. Calling that remainder “radiative forcing” or “trapped heat” is I believe a category and methodology error.
In textbook warming, when the surface warms, outgoing longwave should rise as σT⁴ until the TOA imbalance closes. Any shortfall in OLR is infrared trapped by greenhouse gases.
Only 47.7% of the surface flux change arrives at TOA as longwave (TEFAC). The rest is adiabatic attenuation with height; a pressure-atmosphere effect, not photons stored by CO2. That missing longwave is then booked as “radiative forcing.”
Outgoing longwave at TOA is ~47.7% of the surface energy-flux change (TEFAC). The leftover looks like EEI rather than TOA. I think this is going to be a fundamental change in atmospheric physics over time. (graph image 1)
TOA EEI explains far less GSAT variance than absorbed sunlight. The paper treats EEI as an artifact, not a GHG heat trap. And this seems to explain why the correlation is off (graph image 2)
Science Blog retweeted
I've said it many times before: When it comes to fighting climate change, the cure is often worse than the disease.
Now a government-commissioned study finds that conventional plastic straws had a lower environmental impact in 10 of 16 categories than their supposedly “green” alternatives, including climate change impacts.
Paper straws even had 6.3 times the modeled carcinogenic impact across their life cycle.
We replaced a cheap, functional product with an inferior alternative, congratulated ourselves for saving the planet, and potentially made things worse.
How many more examples do we need before admitting that doing nothing is often better than poorly conceived environmental intervention?
This is what happens when activism drives policy instead of science.
nypost.com/2026/10/26/lifest…
Science Blog retweeted
Replying to @chraiders @bennyjohnson
Keep making up shit, maybe one day you might get something right. I'm a scientist and a very good researcher.
The voter fraud is absolutely real. Even democrats are now admitting this. Don't believe a word a democrat or the left wing media says.
This is just some of the research. I have a lot more.
New Jersey
State said thisJuly 21 and August 19, 2026 · Gov. Mikie SherrillOn the roll6,600Ballotsabout 340A Motor Vehicle Commission software error registered people who had answered that they were not citizens. It ran from June 2023 to June 2024. The state later removed about 5,100 who had never separately attested they were eligible, and held another 1,450 for county review.The first public figure was “fewer than 400” ballots. The August count is about 340 people who voted because of the error, plus about 220 who voted but may have been registered another way. That is hundreds of ballots, not thousands. A later federal figure of 35,152 registered noncitizens was not the state’s number, and the governor’s office said it did not know how it was produced. New Jersey Globe, Aug. 19, 2026; Washington Post, July 21, 2026
New Jersey counties
Records fightSeptember 22, 2026 · Republican National Committee, in a lawsuitOn the rollWithheldBallots—After the governor’s admission, the RNC sued the state’s chief election official and election officials in Bergen, Hudson, Middlesex, Somerset, and Union counties. The suit says they produced some papers and kept back records federal law requires to be public, including how the noncitizens got on the list.This is an allegation in a complaint, not a judgment. The registrations themselves are the governor’s figure, above. Fox News, Sept. 22, 2026
Virginia
State recordsJune 2024 – June 2026 · Virginia Department of Elections, via records released to Judicial WatchOn the roll6,531BallotsNot releasedThe department cancelled 6,531 registrations coded “declared noncitizen.” The program matches DMV answers: a person who indicates they are not a citizen is notified and cancelled if they do not confirm citizenship. No voting histories came with those records, so this is not a count of ballots. In October 2024 a federal judge ordered about 1,600 of an earlier purge restored inside the 90-day quiet period. The Supreme Court then allowed those removals to stand. In April 2026 the state settled a separate case by pausing this program for the 90 days before a federal election.Judicial Watch, July 30, 2026; Associated Press, Oct. 25, 2024
Georgia
State auditOctober 23, 2024, and September 1, 2026 · Secretary of State Brad RaffenspergerOn the roll20 confirmed in 2024; about 2,570 potential in the later auditBallots9 earlier; 407 with a voting historyThe 2024 check of 8.2 million registrations found 20 people who were not citizens. Nine had voted in a previous election. None had voted in that November election. The 2026 audit, of about 7.9 million records, found about 2,570 potential noncitizens who had at some point been placed in active or inactive status because of administrative error, mostly at the driver-services office. Raffensperger said the rolls were more than 99.9 percent accurate and that noncitizens are removed when found.“Potential” and “voting history” are not the same as 407 proven illegal ballots in one election. The audit’s own summary was that there was no evidence of widespread fraud.Associated Press, Oct. 23, 2024; WSB-TV, Sept. 1, 2026
Ohio
State referralOctober 28, 2025 · Secretary of State Frank LaRoseOn the roll1,084Ballots167 appear to have votedLaRose referred 1,084 noncitizens on the rolls to the Justice Department. He said 167 appear to have cast a federal ballot across 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024. The same referral included 99 people who appear to have voted in two states in one federal election, 16 who appear to have voted twice in Ohio, and 14 who appear to have voted after a recorded death.“Appear to” is the secretary’s word. The Justice Department later charged 3 noncitizens with voting in Ohio. More than 20 million ballots were cast in the state across those four cycles.Spectrum News, Oct. 29, 2025; Ohio Secretary of State release of Oct. 28, 2025
Iowa
State audit2025 audit of the 2024 election · Secretary of State Paul PateOn the roll277 confirmedBallots35 counted; 5 rejectedAfter a check through the federal SAVE database, the secretary’s office reported 277 confirmed noncitizens on the registration list. Thirty-five had a ballot counted in the 2024 general election. Five attempted ballots were rejected.Confirmed registrations, and a counted-ballot figure, from the state. Not a claim about other elections.Iowa Secretary of State audit notice, as cited by The Daily Signal, Oct. 25, 2026
Maricopa County, Arizona
County investigationFall 2026 · County Attorney Rachel Mitchell; Recorder Justin Heap; Attorney General Kris MayesOn the roll207 referredBallots8 confirmed, of 60 who had votedThe recorder referred 207 registered voters he suspected were not citizens. Of the 60 who had cast a ballot in a past election, the county attorney said 8 were noncitizens. The other 52 in that reviewed group were citizens. As of October 21, 2026, 24 of those citizens were still marked ineligible. Attorney General Kris Mayes threatened to sue to restore them before the November election, including 18 who were on the early-ballot list.AZFamily, Oct. 21, 2026
Hawaii
Records withheld2023 request; Ninth Circuit ruling; Supreme Court petition, July 2026 · Chief Election Officer Scott Nago; Public Interest Legal FoundationOn the rollStatewide list refusedBallots—The Public Interest Legal Foundation asked for the statewide voter list under the National Voter Registration Act’s public-disclosure rule. Hawaii refused. A district court dismissed the case, and the Ninth Circuit agreed that the statewide list is not a record the statute forces the state to hand over. The foundation asked the Supreme Court to take the case in July 2026. Judicial Watch filed a brief on August 28, 2026, urging the Court to hear it. No court has ordered the list released. This entry is the concealment fight, not a ballot count.Judicial Watch, Aug. 28, 2026
Maui County, Hawaii
Records produced after a suitSettlement announced October 8, 2026 · County Clerk Moana LuteyOn the rollList-maintenance file, now producedBallots—The clerk did not provide voter-list maintenance records requested under the same federal disclosure rule. A settlement required her to produce them.The settlement is about access to cancellation records. It does not itself say how many ineligible ballots were cast.Public Interest Legal Foundation, Oct. 8, 2026
California
State said the file does not track itRecords responses, August 2026 · Secretary of State Shirley Weber; Attorney General Rob BontaOn the rollNo noncitizen cancellation codeBallots—In a written response to a records request, the secretary of state’s office said the statewide registration system does not contain a cancellation reason for non-citizenship, so it could not say how many noncitizens had been removed. The attorney general’s office said it had no formal policy for investigating a report of illegal voting.That is an admission about the books, reported from the offices’ letters. It is not an admission that any particular number of noncitizens voted.The Federalist, Aug. 17, 2026, quoting the offices’ responses
California
Federal allegationJuly through October 2026 · Homeland Security and the Justice DepartmentOn the roll190,832 potential; about 20,000 reviewedBallotsNo state ballot totalA July letter from Homeland Security said there may be as many as 190,832 noncitizens registered. The department later said that figure is still the list it asked the secretary of state to review. About 20,000 of those names had been through a manual check, which is the subset the Justice Department pressed in October, asking the state to set their mail ballots aside. A sworn filing mentioned a further batch of more than 17,000. On October 19 prosecutors charged 28 people. Public descriptions of the 20,000 shifted among “likely,” “highly likely,” “verified,” and “suspected.” On October 25 the Ninth Circuit, 2–1, sent the department’s request back, saying it lacked jurisdiction.California has not agreed to the list. The secretary asked for the method and cited the federal ban on systematic purges inside 90 days of an election. At a hearing, a sample of the names included people whose registrations were already cancelled. The 20,000 is not a cut of the 190,000. Homeland Security said it is the portion reviewed by hand so far.CNN, Oct. 28, 2026; Courthouse News, Oct. 19, 2026; Democracy Docket, Oct. 22, 2026
Washington
Federal allegationOctober 26, 2026 · Acting U.S. Attorney Neil FloydOn the roll405Ballotsabout 1,500, allegedThe Justice Department told the secretary of state it had identified over 400 noncitizens who are registered and, it said, have voted in multiple elections, including the August 2026 primary. The letter, as reported the same day, put that at 405 people and upward of 1,500 ballots over many years. Some had voted for more than a decade, and one as many as 27 times. Acting U.S. Attorney Neil Floyd called the list “the tip of the iceberg.” The department asked the state to set aside current mail ballots from those names until citizenship was confirmed.Washington has not adopted the count. Secretary Steve Hobbs said the office was reviewing the request against state and federal law, that one of the records dated to 1994, and that fraud cases found in the state are sent to local prosecutors. The secretary’s office has said automatic registration requires proof of citizenship at the license counter, and that the federal matching system often flags citizens.U.S. Attorney’s Office, Oct. 26, 2026; Washington State Standard, Oct. 26, 2026
California, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Nevada
Federal allegationJuly 16, 2026 · Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne MullinOn the rollabout 250,000 potentialBallotsNot a vote countAhead of a presidential speech, Homeland Security said a preliminary review had found on the order of 250,000 potential noncitizens registered across these four states, and sent warning letters to the secretaries of state.That is one national claim, not four state admissions, and it is registrations rather than ballots. The states said they were not shown a method they could check. The pieces that were later named were disputed or cut: Pennsylvania was given 14,576 names and told the match was not high-confidence; Nevada’s 15,903 became 185 and then, the state said, citizens; California’s 190,000 stayed a “potential” list.CNN, Oct. 28, 2026
Pennsylvania
Federal list, low confidenceList described September 9, 2026 · Homeland Security; Secretary of the Commonwealth Al SchmidtOn the roll14,576 potentialBallotsNot statedHomeland Security told the state it had compared the public voter file with immigration records and flagged 14,576 people, using name, date of birth, phone, and address. It did not use Social Security numbers. Schmidt wrote that, on an August call, the department “explained that they did not have high confidence” in the figures. The department said it would send the names. As of September 17 it had not.These are potential registrations, not ballots. The state said it would not remove anyone on data it did not find credible. What was withheld here was the department’s list, not Pennsylvania’s own roll.Spotlight PA, Sept. 17, 2026
Nevada
Number later cut2026, before the midterms · Homeland Security, then state officialsOn the roll15,903, then 185, then noneBallots—Homeland Security first said it had identified 15,903 noncitizens on the rolls. In a follow-up it said manual review had confirmed 185. A state official answered that those 185 were citizens, and that the department had “provided nothing of substance to suggest otherwise.”The thousands did not survive the state’s own check. Reuters reported the revision.CNN, Oct. 28, 2026; Reuters, Oct. 28, 2026
Texas
Number later cutJanuary 2019 and October 2024 · Secretary of State, then Gov. Greg AbbottOn the rollClaimed 95,000, then 6,500BallotsClaimed about 58,000, then nearly 2,000In 2019 the secretary of state said roughly 95,000 registered voters were noncitizens and about 58,000 of them had voted. The office walked the list back after citizens turned up in it. In October 2024 the governor said 6,500 noncitizens had been removed and nearly 2,000 had a voting history. A report the secretary’s office had given him that August, obtained by newsrooms, identified 581 people as noncitizens, not 6,500. Reporters found citizens who had been labeled noncitizens or removed for not answering a letter.These are the cases where “thousands voted” was the official announcement and not the number left after review.Votebeat, Texas Tribune, and ProPublica, Oct. 15, 2024
National, SAVE matches
Federal referral, not a ballot countSince April 2025, as described in October 2026 · Department of Homeland SecurityOn the rollmore than 24,000 potentialBallotsNot statedA department spokesperson said SAVE had flagged more than 24,000 potential noncitizens on voter rolls and referred those cases to Homeland Security Investigations. Separately, after a review of more than 100 million voter records, the department was still describing about 300,000 “potential” noncitizens. As of mid-September that work had produced about 1,620 investigations and about 160 arrests. Over seven weeks ending October 19, prosecutors said they had charged 113 people in 20 states.“Potential” is the department’s word. Arrests and charges are not the same as 24,000 ballots. States that rechecked individual lists, above, often found citizens in them.The Daily Signal, Oct. 25, 2026; CNN, Oct. 28, 2026
Oregon
Inactive list, not votesSettlement, April 29, 2026 · Secretary of State Tobias Read, after a Judicial Watch suitOn the rollabout 800,000 inactiveBallotsNone impliedThe state said it holds about 800,000 inactive registrations, kept off the active list so they are not mailed a ballot. About 160,000 already meet the federal test for cancellation: a confirmation notice, no answer, and no vote in two federal elections. The settlement requires annual reports and access to the registration list.Inactive is not “voted.” Reading 800,000 as illegal ballots is a misreading of the settlement.Judicial Watch, April 29, 2026
Thirty states and the District of Columbia
A different fightSuits since September 2025; scorecard as of October 16, 2026 · Justice Department Civil Rights DivisionOn the rollUnredacted files demandedBallots—The department sued for voter files that include partial Social Security numbers, driver’s-license numbers, and participation history, to compare them with immigration records. ProPublica counted final rulings in 26 cases. Every judge, including eight appointed by President Trump, rejected the demand. One state settled. Four cases were still open.Losing a demand for confidential fields is not the same as a state hiding the public roll. Several of the states above do publish a redacted list and still refused the unredacted one.ProPublica, Oct. 16, 2026
here-is-the-evidence-electio…
Le Chatelier’s principle (Henri Louis Le Chatelier, 1884):
"If the equilibrium of a system is disturbed by a change in one or more of the determining factors (as temperature, pressure, or concentration) the system tends to adjust itself to a new equilibrium by counteracting as far as possible the effect of the change.”
Any change, human or otherwise results in equilibrium. We've never shown, measured or proven that Earth's climate is any different.
Happer and van Wijngaarden invoke the same idea in their climate work: a small reduction in outgoing longwave radiation from added CO2 is met by adjustments (temperature, clouds, circulation) that largely offset it. The principle is general to equilibrium systems; the climate application is that the Earth does not simply accumulate the forcing without a restoring response.
Humans add a fraction of a fraction of the increases in GHGs that is already dwarfed by water vapor.
The notion that there is a tipping point, violates the laws of physics and the principles of Earth science due to equilibrium.
Replying to @jgorman2424 @jimdtweet @rln_nelson @pauladamsalber1 @Kenneth72712993 @HavanaM10 @Willard1951 @priscian @aSinister @FChecker76 @FredHikes @DaleGribble_666 @karleastlondon @balls95652097 @B_Bolshevik100 @NewNormality20 @TWTThisIsNow @caseymurph1 @BubbasRanch @BrianvLowe @connolly_s @RogerCoppock @DanCady @badmoonrising11 @Robin_Hagues @fergy1999 @ladyspat1 @SpurglyD @stevenmosher @kuhn_reinhard @Over400ppm @turpinator929 @MystickTheater @claude_roumain @Voight_Kampff_3 @JimFish56837379 @Setophaga9 @CalvinZod @freddreise @FriendsOScience @DMDent @HuygensWill
If we are referring to ocean surface skin temperature, then yes it's measured by satellites, but any claim that an observed change is specifically due to back radiation (downwelling longwave from greenhouse gases) is an attribution step that depends on models, not a direct measurement of that causal component.
The ~3 W/m² figure from Happer and van Wijngaarden (and the conventional ~3.7 W/m² value used in most assessments) is a calculated radiative forcing, not a quantity that will be measured directly as an isolated CO2 delta.
We also would not be able to distinguish whether or not the additional changes were due to CO2 edge band increases or water vapor. Again, this figure assumes WV will increase by 1% per decade. So, in reality, doubling is exaggerated by both skeptics and "believers".
For years, I would try to explain this, and people here would continue to confuse everything, trying to plug in algorithms in, not realizing that this is not a physics problem were the values remain consistent.
All natural systems resist change and the earth pushes back for every change made. In chemistry pH resists change. A warmer surface emits more longwave radiation (the Planck response).
Happer and van Wijngaarden emphasize the same point when they note that a ~3 W/m² clear-sky reduction in flux to space from doubled CO2 is only about 1% of the total outgoing longwave radiation, and that small changes in cloud cover or altitude can compensate for it.
The system does not simply retain the extra energy because we can do math; temperature, water vapor, clouds, and circulation adjust until the top-of-atmosphere budget is restored.
Or as I said, it pushes back in the Le Chatelier’s principle (Henri Louis Le Chatelier, 1884):
"If the equilibrium of a system is disturbed by a change in one or more of the determining factors (as temperature, pressure, or concentration) the system tends to adjust itself to a new equilibrium by counteracting as far as possible the effect of the change.”
A pure greenhouse-gas trapping signal would reduce OLR and thereby increase the imbalance.
That is not what the satellite record shows since 2000.
The longwave term has moved in the opposite direction; the shortwave term has driven the increase in net heat gain.
#ClimateScam
Replying to @RCutler34 @Willard1951 @jimdtweet @rln_nelson @pauladamsalber1 @Kenneth72712993 @HavanaM10 @priscian @aSinister @FChecker76 @FredHikes @DaleGribble_666 @karleastlondon @balls95652097 @B_Bolshevik100 @NewNormality20 @TWTThisIsNow @caseymurph1 @BubbasRanch @BrianvLowe @connolly_s @RogerCoppock @DanCady @jgorman2424 @badmoonrising11 @Robin_Hagues @fergy1999 @ladyspat1 @SpurglyD @stevenmosher @kuhn_reinhard @Over400ppm @turpinator929 @MystickTheater @claude_roumain @Voight_Kampff_3 @JimFish56837379 @Setophaga9 @CalvinZod @freddreise @FriendsOScience @DMDent @HuygensWill
"CO2 is a greenhouse gas - so ..."
Sure, temperatures CO2 are related. But his relationship is backwards. The cart does not pull the horse.
Anyone who has been married understands relationships are never simple.
In the ice-core record, CO2 consistently lags Antarctic temperature during glacial-interglacial transitions, typically by centuries. Orbital (Milankovitch) changes initiate the warming; the oceans then outgas CO2 as a positive feedback. Newer analyses have narrowed the lag in some intervals, but they have not reversed the order. CO2 does not start the warming, it is the cart being pulled by the horse (Sun).
If radiative forcing from CO2 is logarithmic. Each successive doubling produces less additional forcing (~3.7–4 W/m²), and would not be a linear increase. The main absorption bands are already heavily saturated near the surface.
He continues to claim that we observe warming due to the presence of a signal, but that's dumb as we only see it in the presence of water vapor. Water vapor, not CO2, accounts for the large majority of the greenhouse effect. The uncertain quantity is climate sensitivity. And this is the real discussion. Is there really even any sensitivity?
Observational energy-budget estimates for the modern period fall in the lower half of the model range (roughly 1.5–2.5 °C for a doubling in several studies), while many climate models run higher. This is an indication that sensitivity is low. This becomes a problem and it's the one every activist I see fails to acknowledge.
The biggest reason is the recent rise in Earth’s energy imbalance (CERES era) has been driven primarily (or possibly entirely) by increased absorbed solar radiation (reduced albedo from clouds, aerosols, and sea ice), only partially offset by higher outgoing longwave radiation. OLR has not fallen.
Yet, OLR not falling does not mean there has been no change in net heat flux. CERES data show that Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI = absorbed solar radiation minus OLR) has roughly doubled since the early 2000s, from about 0.5 W/m² to around 1.0–1.25 W/m² in recent multi-year averages, but as indicated above, it was NOT due to increased CO2. That's a pretty significant change which can't be attributed to CO2.
A pure greenhouse-gas trapping signal would reduce OLR and thereby increase the imbalance. That is not what the satellite record shows over this interval. The longwave term has moved in the opposite direction; the shortwave term has driven the increase in net heat gain.
Activism is a form of delusional circular reasoning. Not science.
Measured downwelling longwave radiation under clear skies, shows only that most of that radiation originates in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere and is dominated by water vapor (WV), not CO₂.
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James has me blocked, so I will answer and you can re-share it to him, since he refuses to have an actual conversation with a real scientist.
"Ground stations measure the downwelling IR radiation from the greenhouse effect every day. Satellites measure the upwelling IR radiation from the greenhouse effect every day." - James William Owens @Willard1951
We measure thermal radiation, and DO NOT isolate or quantify the incremental CO₂ greenhouse effect in the way his statement implies.
Ground stations (pyrgeometers in networks like BSRN and SURFRAD) measure downwelling longwave radiation. Under clear skies, most of that radiation originates in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere and is dominated by water vapor (WV), not CO₂.
And, more than half typically comes from the bottom 100 m (aka WV).
CO₂’s 15 µm band is already heavily saturated near the surface, so additional CO₂ adds little to no extra downwelling flux there.
Observed rises in downwelling longwave are a mixture of higher air temperature, more water vapor, clouds, and a smaller direct greenhouse-gas contributions.
There are also significant instrument calibration differences of several W/m².
Satellites (CERES and others) measure outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Over the CERES record, OLR has increased, not decreased. Meaning, more of the sun's energy is getting absorbed and leaving the atmosphere.
The rise in Earth’s energy imbalance since ~2000 has been driven primarily by increased absorbed solar radiation (lower albedo from clouds, aerosols, and sea ice), only partially offset by higher OLR.
In a pure “more greenhouse gases trap more heat” picture without feedbacks, one would expect OLR to fall.
The observations show the opposite net behavior once the system warms. Both sets of instruments confirm that the atmosphere is not transparent in the infrared and that it radiates according to its temperature and composition. That is NOT an indication that man is somehow making the skies and oceans warmer.
That has been known for a long time and is not in dispute. But the important note here is that it DOES NOT demonstrate that the recent energy imbalance is dominated by CO₂ radiative forcing, nor do they isolate CO₂’s contribution from water vapor, clouds, or albedo changes.
Those distinctions require magical thermodynamic models and attribution studies, not the raw flux measurements themselves.
As usual James, simply makes claims that support his delusional beliefs without fact-checking the statement or qualifying it with scientific facts.
There is NO ELECTION INTEGRITY in California!
California sent 20,000 ballots to non-citizens. Are they going to get away with this?
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