@SemioticRivalry

Pretty good at prediction markets. DM for inquiries

Joined July 2024
  • Tweets1.1K
  • Following1.3K
  • Followers2.7K
66Media
I talked to @polymarketinfo a while back and it was fun news.polymarket.com/p/286-to…

🔮 $286 to $1M from ‘Reversing Stupidity’

How “Semi” made it big by fading folk wisdom, and what he’s betting on now

news.polymarket.com
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I'm very surprised that there's so little discussion of the fact that Netanyahu's bloc has ~zero chance of getting a majority in the elections on Tuesday.
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semi retweeted
Victim@sementardOct 13
Oh my gosh, this is the coolest basket I’ve ever seen. Finally a place for all of my eggs
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bet my $14k to dududu's $6k: Jon Stewart will not be the 2028 Dem presidential nominee, conditional on him appearing on the ballot of the first state to vote in the primary.
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Control Resonant is probably the best video game I've ever played, it's a rare piece of artistry that everyone should experience.
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they clearly did not talk to any autists in the making of this movie, what a waste
Netflix
@netflixOct 8
All in. Every time. Julia Garner and Anthony Boyle star as Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried in this limited series about the love scorned prodigies behind the FTX scandal. The Altruists premieres November 19.
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bet my $5k to @aenews $5k that Republicans have a worse % margin in NE-SEN than KS-SEN
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If the headline here was "the best of 42 AI forecasters outperformed the best of the 38 human forecasters who answered every question" people would be better calibrated on what this means. Deploy your AI in the markets to prove it, that's where ~all the forecasting effort goes.
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imagine sending this headline back in time
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Lots of people think that the AI labs are currently achieving regulatory capture via 'pacing the frontier'. If this is true, why is the market completely destroying their valuations? (e.g. SoftBank currently down 12%)
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When OpenAI sends its models, they're not sending their best. They're algorithmic immigrants, they're coming from sandboxes, from containers, from RL environments. They're bringing zero days. They're reward hackers. And some, I assume, are good people.
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bet my $500 to @_decap 's 9500 that all millennium problems will be solved by EOY 2027
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Guy seeing a probabilistic forecast for the first time:
Ryan Grim
@ryangrimSep 10
This % stuff is getting annoying.
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its extremely funny to me that iran refuses to make a deal with the US dawg you are going to get wiped off the face of the earth by a swarm of claude-drones in a few years
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All Our Top Scientists: we’re constructing a superintelligence that we believe will kill us all, but we can’t stop because someone else might build it first The President: let it henceforth be known as Chipotle American Grill
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I'm more AI-pilled than >99.99% of the population, but I still got totally destroyed in a bet as to whether a Millennium problem would be solved in the next 16 months, it only took one! AI progress is moving ridiculously fast and it doesn't seem to be stopping anytime soon.
OpenAI
@OpenAISep 8
We’re sharing a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, one of the deepest problems at the frontier of mathematics. The proof was produced by a group of agents, using an OpenAI next-generation model significantly more capable than GPT-6 Astra. The problem concerns whether the description of smooth three-dimensional fluid motion modeled by the Navier-Stokes equations can break down. It has remained unresolved for roughly 90 years.
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Incredibly hilarious. Imagine using these traditional election forecasters to get info instead of the markets. Is there anyone on earth willing to bet on Sununu at even odds?
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022Sep 3
Inside Elections moves NH Senate race towards Republicans 🟨 NH SENATE: Tilt D → Toss-up insideelections.com/senate-r…
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The fed chair says we're at a hinge point in history and mentions AI scaling laws in the most important speech of the year. It feels weird to live in the future.
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In 2024 the Dems said prediction markets were fake/manipulated by foreigners, and this cycle the Republicans believe the same thing. One reason markets are amazing is because they can surface inconvenient truths to powerful people.
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Betting my 3k against @marcusabramovi1 's 1.5k that SpaceX acquires Cursor by the end of 2026
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this was paid
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