Afters. The Flood.
Europe
Joined August 2022
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Pushkas T retweeted
Everyone is overcomplicating recall bias and polling error. The problem isn't that voters are lying to pollsters about 2024, it's that they finally realized who was telling the truth all along.
In 2024, Trump ran an omnidirectional campaign that promised everything to everyone. But somebody in that coalition had to be getting lied to.
The base that never got lied to was the evangelical Disney World crowd. They watched the convention, saw the foreign policy commitments, and knew he wasn’t lying to them.
The working-class, young, anti-establishment, non-ideological voters who took a flyer on him thought they were voting for domestic revival and an end to foreign entanglements. Instead, they woke up to find out that domestic policy took a back seat while the entire apparatus bent over backwards for the evangelical Disney World.
It doesn't matter if pollsters think people are
'misremembering' their votes. People aren't lying to pollsters-they just realized they got duped, and they're voting accordingly.
🚨NEW ARTICLE AND INTERACTIVES🚨
Polling has a problem this year.
Total Recall Bias.
Our findings suggest this probably causes a ~2pt error favoring Democrats in your standard generic ballot poll.
To add insult to injury, many pollsters are using pretty conservative weights this year. A large non-response bias amongst Republicans must occur to counteract these observations; otherwise, we are probably on track for a VA/NJ 2025 repeat.
The groups Trump made his largest gains with (younger, non-white, lower income, non-college, politically disaffected) are the most likely to lie to pollsters by saying they didn't vote for him in 2024, because they're reinforcing their upcoming vote choice.
projects.statenavigate.com/f…
Conor McGregor, Jay Rayner and Ginger Tom 🤣🤣🤣-I am blocked by all of these humans - Conor is an absolute scumbag - I still read Jay in the FT when possible, always thought GT was sound, he used to even follow me.
Pushkas T retweeted
4,255 mixes on Kofi now. Every mix since 27th Jan 25. If you want to support what I do/access the downloads, its £5 minimum one-off, monthly, or pay whatever you wish to. One-off gives one month access. Bless up.
ko-fi.com/post/Friday-30th-O…
Pushkas T retweeted
he looks just like those tramps in the West Bank who go round bullying Palestinian farmers
Pushkas T retweeted
Finishing up today with an over four hour mix from The Man Like, 27 years ago:
This is Sasha @ The Rub, Tampa, Florida 21.05.99
Due to Twitter limitations there's 15 minutes chopped off this. Full mix on Kofi. Its Sasha dropping it in a mega set. Not tracklist.
Mixes on Kofi shortly - not about this weekend, see you Monday! 👇🔥👇
Pushkas T retweeted
Just burned through 82% of my weekly Grok Bot allowance on the first 22 hours of use. It was an extremely engaging system to use, but I think I'm going to try installing an open source AI system on my computer and running that. Any recommendations?
Pushkas T retweeted
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
"Collecting traditional songs of female struggle and strength, the Irish singer invests them with staggering power."
theguardian.com/music/2026/o…
Pushkas T retweeted
Brazil can add farmland bigger than the entire United Kingdom without cutting a single tree in the Amazon.
The land is already cleared.
It sits under old cattle pasture worn out by heavy grazing and years without fertilizer.
Embrapa, Brazil's farm research agency, mapped 28 million hectares of this tired pasture on land rated good or very good for crops.
The count leaves out Indigenous lands and protected areas.
Conab expects Brazil to plant 85.4 million hectares of grain this season.
Turning that worn-out grass into crop fields would grow the country's planted area by about one third.
Mato Grosso holds 5.1 million hectares of it, more than any other state.
Nearly 9 in 10 of these pasture areas sit within 20 kilometers of a highway.
The federal government has a program to recover and convert up to 40 million hectares of weak pasture over ten years.
Brazil's next great farm frontier has already been cleared, mapped and connected to the road.
Pushkas T retweeted
Best analysis of the budget was from @DantonsHead in the end.
And in one sentence! “An upwards step on an escalator going down”.
Pushkas T retweeted
#Spain — Rayo Vallecano fans, whose team is based in Madrid, the capital of Spain, had travelled to Huelva to watch their team play Recreativo de Huelva in the Copa del Rey on Tuesday, October 27. After Rayo Vallecano won the match 3-2, the fans boarded a train to return to Madrid.
On the morning of Wednesday, October 28, their train heading towards Madrid was stopped. The fans learned about a serious train accident near Urda, in the province of Toledo. The accident site was only about three kilometres away from where they were.
In response, 50 Rayo Vallecano fans, most of them members of the anti-fascist ultras group Bukaneros, called the emergency services and got off the train to help the victims. The fans joined the rescue efforts alongside emergency responders. They helped transport some of the injured and took some of them to the sports hall in Urda, which was being used to receive people with minor injuries.
Respect Bukaneros.
Pushkas T retweeted
A bit bizarre that only two weeks after piling up on the Greens for saying zionism is racism every mainstream commentator is lamenting that the only thing preventing a Netanyahu defeat is the unfortunate fact that … zionism is racism
Pushkas T retweeted
Great tips from Brazil on how they turned things around for Lula online and offline:
1. Don’t ever engage, block far-right accounts immediately.
2. Don't debunk, focus on making new content on your platform.
3. Use all the tools at your disposal.
4. Be equally online and offline.
Pushkas T retweeted
Netanyahu’s victory is a huge problem for those who wanted him as the scapegoat for the horrors of last three years. After all the Israeli public reelected him - and all the other war criminals
Pushkas T retweeted
The 3Arena Dublin last night showed the power of music and of Irish solidarity.
To not bow to the threats.
To stand with humanity.
To resist.
@macklemore will forever be a hero to the people of Ireland and Palestine.
Pushkas T retweeted
I have literally spent the last month trekking around Jordan interviewing elderly Nakba survivors and hearing their harrowing stories- and just completed a three hour video interview on Saturday night. No one I talked to left before multiple neighbours or family members had been shot and killed. Few of them had any weapons of any sort to protect themselves and if they did they were ancient Turkish muskets. Their opponents were armed with modern, newly-imported Czech rifles and many had been trained and drilled by the British. It became simply suicidal to remain, though many old people tried to so. The guy I interviewed on Saturday fled with his mother after their village was bombed. Their father remained and was loaded onto a truck to Gaza, at gunpoint, by the Haganah. Many of the family members that remained in Gaza have been killed in the last two years