Seth Horwitz (@Seth_Horwitz) header
Seth Horwitz (@Seth_Horwitz) profile picture

Did Wall St. Made widgets in Fantasy Land. Sold the widget company to a PE firm. A bit bored, now. Have an itchy mute finger. עַם יִשְׂרָאֵל חַי

Joined September 2013
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I’m not sure what I did, but I’m pretty proud of myself whatever it may have been. I feel honored, Jim. Thank you.
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Seth Horwitz retweeted
The Washington Post is trying to make a scandal out of Secretary Rubio traveling to attend his son's football games. They admit he's required to travel by government plane and that his trips all comply with federal rules, but they published the story anyway to suggest impropriety. Most parents do whatever they can to see their children compete, but the Washington Post tries to paint that as bad judgment. Completely absurd article.
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Can someone tell me the benefit of enabling a bet on the performance of BTC over a 15 minute span? How does any state classify this as anything but gambling? Shut it all down, or (my less preferable choice) tax the hell out of Kalshi like states who take half the rake.
Trade BTC 15-min markets on Kalshi. Live across the U.S.
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Seth Horwitz retweeted
Egypt also borders Gaza. Egypt also blockades Gaza. Egypt also built a wall and flooded the tunnels. How many anti-Egypt protests have you seen?
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Seems like Gibney has a really strong understanding of our election reporting systems, networking including encryption, and a whole lot of other things if he believes these statements. That, or he’s a nut case. There’s plenty to dislike Musk for. No need to wishcast new ones.
“Musk” director Alex Gibney says he doesn’t believe Elon Musk “switched votes” in the 2024 presidential election, but suggests Musk used Starlink to intercept election reporting signals “to intercept signals of reporting from ballot places” to learn the results early: “It puts in your mind this idea that Starlink is not just a means of communication; it’s a means of surveillance and control.” In the doc, Gibney highlights a text chain between Musk and Ashley St. Clair where Musk appeared confident about Trump’s victory before the results were known: “I found an anomaly in the matrix, and I have 10,000 space lasers that help me understand this.” variety.com/2026/film/news/a…
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I can’t say that I’ve ever heard of someone having to give back all of their compensation for work already completed … but I’m also not sure that I’ve ever seen anyone like Fishback. Well deserved.
Greenlight has won all litigation with James Fishback. @jamesfishback has been ordered to return every penny of salary and bonus that we ever paid him, to repay the money we lent him, to pay most of our legal fees, and to stop claiming titles, roles and responsibilities he never had. No, Fishback was not the “Head of Macro.” Rather, as the arbitrator found, he was a “faithless servant.” That’s a fancy legal way of saying that Fishback was so disloyal during his employment that he was ordered to refund to us his entire compensation during his tenure at Greenlight. Ordinarily, my style would be to let this decisive ruling speak for itself. However, Fishback has made himself a public figure. He publicly requested appointments to be a governor of the Federal Reserve and a U.S. Senator. He unsuccessfully ran for Florida Governor and has hinted that he intends to run for President in the next election. I therefore feel a civic duty to share additional details and thoughts about Fishback’s character and why he should never be placed in a position of trust. For more than three years, Fishback engaged in a scheme to harass Greenlight Capital and me. While he made a series of false allegations against us, I generally chose to remain silent and allow the legal process to run its course. It has now done so. The result of the final arbitration is that every single claim Fishback ever made about us was either withdrawn or was legally found to be untrue. The conclusion of the arbitration represents the end of all litigation between Greenlight and Fishback, with Greenlight winning a clean sweep and being awarded over $4 million of damages against Fishback due to his tortious actions, false statements and baseless allegations. Fishback has accused us of lawfare. Let’s set the record straight: it can’t be lawfare when he started the litigation. We simply defended ourselves and made now proved counterclaims. This all began with Fishback demanding a $5 million pay-off to spare us the reputational harm and legal costs of defending frivolous accusations of religious discrimination, age discrimination, a politically hostile work environment and defamation. After filing his lawsuit, Fishback told Jack Farley on the Forward Guidance podcast that “discovery is going to be fun” and would vindicate his story. Farley asked how frequently Greenlight employees referred to him as ‘Head of Macro’ and what written evidence supported his claims. Fishback answered “Well, I don’t have access to my company email. If I did, we could produce them up the wazoo.” Well, discovery came and went and not a single piece of evidence supported any of Fishback’s bogus claims. A company-wide email search revealed that the only additional Greenlight emails calling him “Head of Macro” were those where he gave the title to himself in his signature block while sending external emails where nobody from Greenlight was copied. Instead, discovery uncovered some outrageous conduct by Fishback. For example, Fishback and his father concocted a scheme to use a fake reference check to create his fraudulent defamation claim against us. In September of 2023, after his employment ended, Fishback texted his father a draft of a fake reference check email that included an inquiry as to Fishback’s duties as Greenlight’s “Head of Macro.” In the same chain, Fishback texted his father: “We need them to DEFAME us. Which THEY WILL. That’s another $1 MM right there.” Fishback persuaded a friend of a friend who worked at an investment firm to send us the fake reference check. When we responded that Fishback was not the Head of Macro, Fishback promptly sued us, claiming that our response caused the friend’s company to walk away from making a $5 million investment in Fishback’s start-up hedge fund. The friend of the friend testified under oath that he sent the fake reference check as a favor and that his company was never considering investing with Fishback. The friend got fired. It was all a sham to conjure a fake legal claim to extract money from us. There’s more that came out in the litigation: On his final day of employment, Fishback stole Greenlight’s most valuable property, its portfolio of investments, by emailing it to his personal email (in our industry this is a big deal). An even bigger deal is that he and his father were secretly trading positions in Greenlight’s investment portfolio in their personal accounts. Fishback admitted to violating his confidentiality obligations to Greenlight over 60 times, including by sending confidential investment information to third parties. Fishback made numerous statements, including that he ran macro trading at Greenlight and that he was responsible for generating over $100 million of profits – none of which were true. Fishback told various lies about why he left Greenlight, including that he left due to a hostile political environment. In a classic example of “You can’t fire me, I quit,” Fishback resigned right after my assistant scheduled a meeting with him so I could fire him for not doing his job. As for the political environment at Greenlight, Fishback has repeatedly claimed that I am “a Soros aligned hedge fund billionaire.” That’s simply not so. Politically, I am just left of center. I have made large philanthropic contributions to causes supporting bi-partisanship, bridging differences and pluralism. I support centrist Democrat politicians. Some on the far-left have even tried to fight my efforts to have a more civil culture by labeling me a far-right conservative. That isn’t true either. At Greenlight, we discuss politics so infrequently that I was unaware of Fishback’s views during his tenure. And it surprised me when he quoted scripture in his resignation email. His politics have since been made clear to all. We have no view on the sincerity of his religious beliefs but suffice it to say that we’ve been witness to him breaking those Commandments regarding stealing and lying. Fishback campaigned for Florida Governor on an extreme “tough on crime” platform. He threatened homeless people with 15 years in jail for being homeless; he threatened teenagers participating in riots with 5 years in jail, including prosecuting minors as adults; he promised criminal prosecutions of homeowners’ associations; and planned for mass deportations of non-citizens. He even said a black man “should be lynched” for confronting him. And yet, Fishback is a man who believes the laws don’t apply to him. Rules are for other people. During his campaign, Fishback was challenged for living outside of Florida. His testimony that he lived in Florida was certainly news to us. When Fishback worked for Greenlight, he provided his address as being in Washington, D.C. He had us withhold D.C. resident taxes from his payroll. When he visited our New York office, he frequently submitted expense reimbursements for Amtrak trips between D.C. and New York. Before this final arbitration, we had already won verdicts against Fishback to repay the loans that we generously lent to him on favorable terms for what he claimed at the time to be a family emergency (though that’s not what he told Jack Farley). Even with valid court orders of U.S. Federal District Court Judges ordering him to repay us and surrender property to satisfy the judgements, Fishback simply thumbs his nose at the rule of law. He decides on his own that the Judge was a Democrat, or was appointed by a Democrat, or was otherwise politically motivated, rendering the rulings (in his mind) invalid. Fishback was ordered to repay his debt to us: He ignored it. Fishback was ordered to turn over shares in a company and 43 luxury items he owns to us: He ignored it. A company owned by Fishback was ordered to produce documents in discovery: He ignored it. And that is just a partial list. We have little doubt that he will try to ignore the arbitration ruling against him from the arbitration he commenced. Ignoring court orders is a very dangerous way for anyone to behave. But those that do, especially in such a self-serving fashion, should not be put in a position of public trust or have influence in the enforcement of laws against others. It doesn’t matter that I’m a Democrat. What does matter is that we gave a seemingly intelligent college drop-out a chance to achieve what he once said was his dream job. And once he was provided with that opportunity, instead of applying any semblance of a work ethic, he chose to be a “faithless servant”. We have a theory as to why Fishback wishes to continue his political ambitions. We believe that by continuing to seek office, he will find donors to his campaign, PAC and charitable endeavors, and he will use those funds to stay in hotels, rent cars, travel and dine out – all without ever acquiring an asset in his own name that can be used to repay his legitimate creditors, like us. It’s the perfect way for Fishback to continue to grift and continue to avoid paying his debts. It won’t work. James, you owe us over $4 million and interest is ticking. And, when we do collect it, I will in turn donate it to a combination of the National Immigration Forum, The Center for Reproductive Rights, The Florida Rights Restoration Coalition, and The Florida Chapter of the ADL. The best way to fight your hate is to support those you hate.
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This seems like Obamacare, but at least both those taking free DC bus rides and those paying extra are using the service. An astonishing number of free Obamacare policies go to people who still can’t afford actual healthcare, nothing gained, and everyone is paying for it.
A new report from Washington, D.C., finds "64% of bus riders still do not pay fares," which is threatening the sustainability of the city's public transportation. D.C.'s solution? An 11 percent fare hike for those who do pay.
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1) This is objectively funny. 2) It’s also clearly not real … as Xi didn’t need to send a honeypot to get Musk’s secrets. All he had to do was let Tesla build a factory in Shanghai, then suddenly China’s BEV and aerospace industries got an instant boost. Odd coincidence.
Xi is not happy with Elon Musk.
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Seth Horwitz retweeted
Hegseth didn't negotiate the MOU. Interesting who is trying to blame it on him anyway.
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I’m looking forward to see Lander get primaried in <2 years for someone more left and less Jewish. That’s the recipe he used to take down Dan Goldman. Some consultant can just use the same playbook and cross out the name. I’m not sure why this guy is even unpacking his boxes.
INCOMING DEM REP. BRAD LANDER (NY): "We can impeach Pete Hegseth and show those consequences for violating your oath of office." When asked who else: "I got a big list." Not even sworn in yet. This is what the New Democrat majority has planned.
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Seth Horwitz retweeted
100% of children want ice cream for dinner
66% want Medicare for All 61% want a billionaire wealth tax 57% want a $20/hour minimum wage 63% want a data center moratorium 58% want to end military aid to Israel 73% want to ban super PACs 79% want a 10% credit card interest rate cap No more excuses. Democrats must deliver.
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Seth Horwitz retweeted
Lost them and should never try to get them back. Podcast bros are entertainers, not serious policy people. Worse, they have zero accountability to the truth. No fact checks. No sourcing. No foundational education on the complex matters they discuss on their shows. They aren’t the problem, however. The problem is that too many people use entertainers as their news source. Viewers incentivize increasingly crazy podcast topics. But policy discussions aren’t supposed to be entertaining. They’re supposed to be nuanced, informative, and frankly, boring. When the public starts to incentivize boring intellectual policy discussions instead of click-bait entertainment, our national politics will finally be less like a political version of the Jerry Springer Show, and more like the serious political debates expected of an advanced civilization.
David Sacks reveals how the GOP alienated Joe Rogan and alternative media SACKS: "We lost all the podcast bros. I mean, obviously, it was Tucker Carlson and Joe Rogan and Theo Von and that whole set. Megyn Kelly. So, you know, a house divided against itself cannot stand. I mean, we lost a huge part of our base. And I would say that the Republicans in particular are dependent on the podcast circuit. Let's call it alternative media. Why? Because the mainstream media hates us. Legacy media hates us. They will never give us a fair shot. And they're 90% left. So it is what it is." "Yeah. And I think one of the reasons why Trump produced such a resounding victory in 2024 is he appealed to that whole podcasting circuit. And frankly, we should have done a better job giving them all front row seats in the White House press room. We should have stayed connected to all of them because they are our media." "By the way, they don't work for us. They're willing to defect, obviously. They have their own opinions. But we have to pay attention. I think our side has to pay a lot of attention to them because without them, we don't have any media that supports us. So I think that losing them was a big deal. It fueled the sense. And I think that a lot of those people showed up and then did a protest vote because they wanted to send the message that they want out of this war."
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1) Good for him, I guess? 2) Is “here’s a good business reason not to cheat on your wife” a few steps beyond where we need to be? Don’t cheat on your wives, scumbags. (If you can’t afford to leave, and sleep in the basement to be near your kids, that’s a longer conversation.)
zuck's dedication to his Wife saved him from the Epstein files and getting honeypotted. total wifeguy victory
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I’ve never been wrong for a minute when analyzing this company. It was clear that China would be an EV dog fight, that Musk would lose, before they even built Tesla Shanghai. It’s a shame that the stock price has had no correlation with any underlying reality. So be it.
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Stupid takes like this, as he admits started “at the outset of the war”, led to the self fulfilling prophecy of stalling out with @JDVance whispering this nonsense into @POTUS’s ear, while at the same time STILL being a ridiculous comparison given the fatalities from each war.
The US is in a Vietnam scenario with Iran. I said this at the outset of the war, and it's only clearer nine months or so later.
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Maybe the party shouldn’t have remade itself to cater to the lowest propensity voters in history, some of whom decided to actively campaign for the opposing party to get podcast views. Just a thought … that I had in 2016 when 70-year-old first time voters were in the coalition.
Replying to @lennybronner
Using precinct results from 11 states, we estimate ~75% of Democrats’ net gain came from the turnout gap and ~20% from vote switching. Exit polls imply 35% nationally, but turnout still leads. 8 in 9 Trump voters who didn’t vote GOP stayed home.
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Unlimited demand, secured. That’s why he’s slashing production for another product that nobody wants and Tesla is a SEVERE laggard in the market. (Totally not a fake excuse.) He might as well claim to be winding town to build private jets. A CyberFlop. cnbc.com/2026/11/06/tesla-cy…
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Seth Horwitz retweeted
“Current hysteria to block all projects everywhere is a gift to China.” It’s not a gift if they paid for it.
US industrial capacity has been eroding for decades, and with it the fortunes of our middle class and to an extent, our national security. Data center development and our leadership in AI can reverse that trend, finally. Current hysteria to block all projects everywhere is a gift to China.
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Seth Horwitz retweeted
Mr. Vice-President, Please allow me to present a different perspective. The problem was not the Iran War. It was the cease fire. If you start a war, you need to win it and finish it – otherwise don’t start it. This war should have been over six months ago, with the Strait of Hormuz wide open and oil flowing. The second and third tiers of Iranian leadership should have been destroyed, and we should have supported the pro-western forces who could have taken leadership. We stood on the brink of a new, more peaceful Middle East - and then we blinked. We had a chance not only to deny Iran nuclear weapons, but to get rid of the world’s biggest supporter of terrorism. Instead, we had a cease fire, which was followed by months of will we or won’t we finish the job. Every day was a different message. There still is. Is the war over? Is it about to begin? No one knows. There is confusion and inconsistency. In June 2025, America was not involved. This was an Israel vs Iran issue. No one forced the United States to attack Iran then, or in February of 2026. It was a decision made by President Trump. In my opinion, it was the right decision. Once the decision was made, we should not have stopped until the regime fell. But instead, you negotiated a cease fire that didn’t last, didn’t work and left us in no man’s land, with higher prices and our troops still deployed. Our troops could have been home, the Navy returned to its bases, a peaceful regime in place , new alliances forged, and gas prices below $3.00 a gallon. No, Mr. Vice President. It’s not the war. It’s the so-called cease fire.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
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A solid take, but I disagree that Trump won’t be an issue in 2028. Even if he road off into the retirement sunset and didn’t make a new headline every day and further wade into others’ races, which he won’t, “what about Trump” will be used for a decade.
Democrats are going to make the exact same mistake Republicans made after 2024 if they think they have some broad ideological mandate to move the country to the far left. Voters have been telling us what they want above all else -- low gas prices and economic normalcy. That's it, that's all. It's actually pretty simple. Turning the congress into a 24/7 ideological lawfare circus will work out about as well for Democrats as the war worked out for Trump. Voters are angry at gas prices and the perceived lack of focus on domestic issues. That's really the whole ballgame. The best thing for everyone in both parties is to actually give people what they want and focus on a domestic affordability agenda that includes cheap gas, low-cost energy production, public safety, and job creation. Of course, Democrats were never really interested in any of that, so voters are once again going to get none of what they thought they were promised during campaign season as the left pursues maximum ideological vengeance. It will get very ugly. But in two more years Trump will no longer be available as the unifying hate totem the left has depended upon for solidarity, and all they'll have left is the Communist Manifesto and a total lack of accomplishments in congress or anywhere else. 'But Trump' will cease to be an excuse, and 'But Rubio' doesn't have the same ring to it. Good luck with all that.
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This is nonsense. Correlation is not causation, etc. Tariffs are definitely ONE OF the reasons, but the list is long. Do you think the drubbing of last night would’ve flipped if tariffs were killed a year ago? Of course not.
Republicans got blown out because of the tariffs. People will make a million other excuses, but it was, in fact, the tariffs.
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