The Signal Foundry

Trump, Powell, and interest rates Today, the price of money is determined by structural factors. Demand for capital is growing: the US government is increasing its debt, financing military programs, and pouring billions into artificial intelligence. Businesses are also borrowing, building data centers, and restructuring supply chains. At the same time, the supply of savings is declining. Boomers, who have been saving for decades, are now spending. China, which used to buy tons of Treasuries, is no longer the “world's bank.” Even oil powers are investing in their own megaprojects rather than US debt Political attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve only exacerbate the picture. Investors do not want to hold an asset that could be devalued if the regulator dances to the president's tune. If confidence in the dollar weakens, long-term loan rates will rise even more The era of cheap money is over. For thirty years, rates fell, Washington could borrow as much as it wanted, the stock market grew, and mortgages were affordable. Now it's the opposite: ten-year bonds are holding steady at around 4.5% and are likely to go higher. Bloomberg predicts that 4.5-5% will become the new normal, with risks leaning toward 6%. For an economy accustomed to cheap financing, this is a painful turnaround Trump hopes that replacing Powell and appointing “his” man will allow him to quickly bring down rates. In the short term, maybe. But in the long term, it will lead to a loss of confidence, capital flight, and rising yields. Demographics, geopolitics, new debt — all of this is pushing up the cost of money. So what kind of deep rate cuts can we talk about now?

Tomorrow we drop a new case on X: How to get rich on alts Straight from the @SignalFoundry vault where the work never stops and the alpha is earned, not guessed Most are busy tweeting vibes We’re mapping the money flows Set your reminders or stay poor #SignalFoundry

Phoenix Group (UAE) has disclosed its crypto reserves. The company's balance sheet: $150 million — 514 $BTC and 630,000 $SOL. Phoenix Group became the first public company on the ADX (Abu Dhabi) exchange to officially include digital assets in its corporate reserves. What Phoenix Group does: - $BTC mining (top 10 global miners, >15 EH/s, 2% of global hash rate). - Data center hosting and equipment distribution (MicroBT, Ledger, CoolWallets). - Investments in Web3 (M2 Exchange, Lyvely, Citadel, partnership with Tether)

🗓 Listings for next week ▪️ July 28 — NERO Chain, DeLab Games ▪️ July 29 — Spheron, Ika, SparkDEX ▪️ July 30 — Naoris Protocol 💰 Largest funding rounds over the past week: 🔹 Mercurity Fintech – $200 million 🔹 Courtyard – $30 million 🔹 Bitzero – $25 million 🔹 xTAO – $22.8 million 🔹 Poseidon – $15 million 🔹 DSRV Labs – $11.6 million 🔹 Gaia – $10 million

This week is a continuous test of the resilience of the soft landing for the US economy and that's why 👇🧵

Trump's GENIUS ACT The GENIUS Act is not just a law about stablecoins. It is the first systemic document in the US where digital money began to be regulated as financial infrastructure rather than as a temporary phenomenon. Signed by Trump on July 18. Passed with almost bipartisan agreement. Almost no one is against it — and that in itself is interesting. What the law does: 🛑Stablecoin issuers are required to hold 100% of reserves in liquid assets (dollars, treasuries) 🛑Public reporting on reserves — every month 🛑Clear rules on advertising and statements (no hints of government support) 🛑In case of default: coin holders first, then everyone else 🛑Unification of regulation: a federal standard, uniform for all states Essentially, this is a “box of rules” for those who want to work with digital dollars in the US. Transparent, understandable, predictable. And that means convenient for institutional investors. And inconvenient for those who built products “in the gray area.” 🔫 How this will affect the market: Stablecoin → Infrastructure If stablecoins used to be like crypto use cases, now they are starting to resemble a sovereign shell of the dollar. GENIUS turns them into an integral part of the payment layer. The market has understood this: the capitalization of the top 3 stablecoins is growing again, and turnover within DeFi is up. Growth in demand for Treasuries GENIUS directly stimulates the purchase of short-term government debt: the higher the turnover of stablecoins, the more dollar reserves are required, which means more liquidity for the Treasury. This is a hidden but important support for the U.S. fiscal pipeline. Defragmentation of jurisdictions Whereas companies used to choose between Wyoming, New York, or offshore, now there is a common field. The jurisdictional arbitration game is over. Risks are decreasing, and market entry is becoming more expensive but safer. Altcoins in focus Generalized trust in stablecoins is increasing interest in other segments: ETH, SOL, L2, infrastructure. If the calculation part has become clear, it is logical to strengthen the logical part — DeFi, loans, derivatives. Regulatory precedent This is the first brick. Next will come the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act, and everything else that goes with it. The entire digital economy will be framed in a legal shell. The US has decided not to fight crypto, but to subject it to the logic of capital. The effect of GENIUS is already priced in. But the consequences will linger for years