Fridgy

2024 WAS A WEAK BULL MARKET? THE DATA TELLS A VERY DIFFERENT STORY. 👀 I’ve heard plenty of people say the last real crypto bull market was 2021. And I understand why. A lot of altcoins never returned to their previous highs. Plenty of investors watched Bitcoin run while their portfolios barely moved. But here’s something I discovered while researching previous speculative manias. In 2021, the ENTIRE memecoin sector reached a peak market cap of approximately $88 BILLION. Pretty impressive, right? WELL, LOOK AT 2024. The memecoin sector reached $150.6 BILLION. That’s approximately 71% BIGGER than the 2021 peak. And trading activity? Peak daily memecoin volume went from $49.6 BILLION in 2021 to $87.4 BILLION in 2024. Think about that. So where was this supposedly weak market? Here’s what I think happened. THE PARTY GOT BIGGER. BUT SO DID THE GUEST LIST. In 2021, speculative attention was concentrated around a relatively small number of recognizable projects. By 2024, we had an explosion of new tokens, narratives, and launchpads competing for that same attention. How much competition? According to CoinGecko, approximately 5.3 MILLION tokens were launched on Pump.fun in 2024 alone. FIVE POINT THREE MILLION. And suddenly something starts making sense. The market can grow enormously while individual investors experience disappointing returns. Because capital doesn’t distribute itself evenly. It concentrates. Certain narratives capture attention. A handful of projects become enormous winners. And countless others are left fighting for whatever liquidity remains. Now, does this mean diminishing returns aren’t a real concern? Of course not. With millions of projects competing for attention, finding the winners may actually become MORE difficult. But I think there’s an important distinction here. A market experiencing diminishing opportunities for the AVERAGE token isn’t necessarily a market experiencing diminishing speculative appetite. Those are two very different things. And that brings me back to the research I’ve been doing on what another major speculative cycle might look like. Maybe the next mania won’t lift everything. Maybe it’ll become even MORE selective. A handful of projects could capture extraordinary valuations while thousands of others go nowhere. Which makes identifying the right narrative, community, distribution, and execution more important than ever. 2024 wasn’t necessarily the bull market everyone was waiting for. BUT IT WAS ABSOLUTELY A BULL MARKET FOR SOMEONE. And IMO, that distinction could become even more important in the next cycle. THE MONEY DIDN’T DISAPPEAR. IT FOUND DIFFERENT PLACES TO GO.

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