Skyline Bets

❗️If you had Western Michigan to win on Kalshi vs Michigan tonight, it appears you may be owed a payout under Kalshi's CFTC filed contract rules. We'll see if this gets corrected in the morning or if I'm missing something. Their settlement also conflicts with precedent set in Padilla vs Mederos QUESTION: If Michigan won after all was said and done, why does this matter? ANSWER: Kalshi's CFTC filed contract rules & consistency. They have operated differently before, picking & choosing a random approach to follow is good for no one and raises a number of other issues. SUBJECT BACKGROUND: Kalshi settled the WMU v Michigan market early when source agencies had the final score listed as a 12-7 WMU win. Post-settlement, 1 second was added back to the game clock and Michigan then won 13-12 on a last second "hail mary". Within the hour, Kalshi decided to claw back WMU payouts and flip the payout to Michigan. However, the rules governing the market appear to prohibit using a "post-expiration revision" to change the "Expiration Value". If Kalshi wants to pay out Michigan bettors, it appears that it should have done so from their own pocket due to closing the market too early. PROBLEM: Even if you think that's dumb (part of being a prediction market is following this operating structure, which is why Prediction Market operators shouldn't be rushing to settle markets so fast), there's another issue here: this settlement was inconsistent with precedent. On April 11, 2026, UFC bout "Padilla vs Mederos" initially was announced as a win for Chris Padilla by majority decision. Kalshi paid out the markets accordingly which was in agreement with the posted result by the UFC at that time (the source agency). However, officials then reviewed the scorecards, found a missing point deduction, and corrected the outcome to majority draw that same night. As seen below, Kalshi kept the original payout of Padilla win instead of switching it to pay out as a draw because under their rules, they cannot unpay a contract that was correct at the time of resolution (only sportsbooks like FanDuel do have this ability). Honoring any "switch of outcome" after resolution would have to come out of Kalshi's own pocket. So the issue here is if Kalshi is going to ignore rules and flip markets to the "final outcome", they are not being consistent in doing so. Failing to pay out Western Michigan bettors would raise additional concerns regarding at what cutoff a Prediction Market operator can reverse a settlement, and that would raise potential conflicts of interest in decision making. This is why it's important that in the morning, Kalshi corrects this issue and pays out WMU bettors, I hope they do so (and they learn a valuable lesson about not resolving markets so fast!) Please let me know if I'm missing something here, I'm not a lawyer but I tried my best to check this the best I could. I'm happy to delete this tweet if I'm missing something here or if I received incorrect source agency timing information in supporting the justification for WMU traders to be paid out.