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June 27th, 2025 - Market Brief
Friday, June 27, 2025. Markets are on the edge, and if you thought summer would bring calm, think again. Today’s script is pure adrenaline.
Overnight, the U.S. and China finally inked a trade deal that actually matters: tariffs are coming down, and rare earths are flowing again.
Tech and manufacturing stocks are already celebrating, with $SPY and $NQ1! futures inching toward fresh record highs.Â
$NVDA is still the market’s favorite lottery ticket, hitting another all-time high. Meanwhile, $NKE just spiked 10% premarket after beating earnings. Never mind the $1 billion tariff punch, they’ll “manage it.” Sure.
But the real show is the May PCE inflation data dropping this morning.
The Fed’s favorite gauge is expected to tick up to 2.3% year-over-year, with core PCE at 2.6%. If the numbers surprise, brace for whiplash in rates and risk assets. GDP’s third estimate confirmed a -0.5% contraction in Q1, so the “soft landing” crowd is sweating.
Jobless claims and new home sales hit at 10:00 AM ET. Expect every algo on the Street to be watching.
Trump is making noise about firing Powell before 2026, which has traders betting on earlier rate cuts. If you’re looking for stability, you’re in the wrong casino.
Here’s where things stand:
- $XAU : $3,280–$3,334/oz (slipping as risk appetite returns)
- $WTI : $65.64–$65.82/barrel (steady, but one headline away from chaos)
- $BTC : $107,215–$107,477 (down, but still a six-figure fever dream)
-Â $ES1! : Hovering just below the 6,144 record
Today’s takeaway: The market’s running on hope, caffeine, and denial. Stay sharp, one bad print and the rally could turn into a stampede for the exits. Welcome to the volatility vortex.
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April 28, 2025 - Broken Supply Chains, and the DC Circus
Hello everyone, it’s April 28, 2025. The week ahead promises to be spectacular (or a complete disaster) depending on which way the wind blows out of Washington. So far, the futures are down about 0.6% this morning, as everyone’s trying to cut risk ahead of a week crammed with Big Tech earnings ( $AAPL , $MSFT , $AMZN , $META ), a mountain of macro data (PCE, GDP, ISM, jobs), and of course, the never-ending Trump tariff soap opera.
On the US politics front, @POTUS stayed uncharacteristically quiet over the weekend, no new bombshells. But whispers about “talks” with China surfaced, without any real confirmation. Meanwhile, several countries are supposedly rushing to negotiate tariff deals with the US. Expect headlines (and chaos) throughout the week.
Supply chains are starting to crack. Container traffic from China to the US has plunged 60%, and if deals aren’t made by mid-May, we could be staring down empty shelves and layoffs in transport and retail sectors. Think “Black Friday” without anything to buy.
Meanwhile, the drama at the @federalreserve continues. Kevin Warsh, still salty about not replacing Powell, attacked the Fed’s “media circus” style, blaming it for post-Covid inflation. Warsh wants the Fed to go old-school: shut up, protect the dollar, and stop playing superhero. No forecasts, no endless press conferences. Just cigars and silence.
On the macro side, this week’s economic data could turn into a horror show: weak jobs numbers, soft GDP, slowing PCE, all raising the probability of recession. If that happens, expect markets to start begging the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later.
Assets snapshot:
•$WTI : $63.36
•$XAU : $3,307
•$BTC : $94,000
In short: expect maximum volatility, endless surprises from DC, and a market that could spin on a dime. Stay sharp, stay skeptical, and brace for anything.
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