I don't do as much market commentary any more so I thought I'd spend some time doing a little write up. I want to try and be as clear about my current thought process as possible. I do not believe the downside is done. I believe this for a number of reasons: 1. For the first time in a while we've got some bearish divergences on the HTF. While bull markets can often ignore these, they're starting to be present on TFs that require a little more respect. 2. The psychology and mood is undisturbed. I believe it will be disturbed. There is a current peaceful acceptance that we're correcting, but there's no panic. As I've covered before, panic isn't some light-hearted tweets about your bags being lower. Panic is a true sense of "oh shit maybe the bears were actually right." 3. I think the indexes correct and I think crypto suffers (and that correction has yet to materialise.) 4. During each corrective period there's always a moment that feels as though "we survived it again, phew" before the market pushes again lower. The common acceptance (and right response) is to continue to buy dips, but that behaviour gets punished and then forces participants out before a bottom is formed. 5. There's no climactic selling yet and BTC's corrections have been weak in comparison to prior cycles (great for the strength argument however) 6. Momentum has actually changed, the aggression is coming from the sellers for now, and as I tweeted earlier for ETH, it has weakness present for the first time in 2024. Now let me clarify. The market punishes those who cannot react. I am still incredibly bullish, omega bullish, but I'm respectful that the current conditions are awkward for me to accept positioning strongly at this moment in time. The steps I'm taking are to create my portfolio plan for the next 6 months and to take small steps in building into those positions as we continue to trade through these zones. Some buys will go underwater, some buys will be good, some buys might be a bottom, but they'll be spread out, I'll take my time, and I'll manage my risk to establish what I want from the market. There's always a chance that my thought process will be wrong, in which case I have to react. I have to be prepared to understand what represents value today vs where I see the market in 6 months. I have to be prepared to build even though I don't think a bottom is in. The route that you take, regardless of your overall thought process will define how your next few months will play out. If it's easy, or hard, that's down to the decisions you make through corrections like this. And remember, whether you believe we're going lower, we're going to chop, or we've bottomed, the only thing you'll be punished for is stubbornly holding on to beliefs and not reacting to the conditions in front of you.