Developing @BlockMind_Agent NFA. DYOR.
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Update: We're back.
Our account was hacked earlier this week. While we were asleep, the attacker used it to promote a scam token.
As soon as we noticed, we warned everyone by email and other channels, but by then some people had already been affected.
To be clear: this account will never ask you to buy a coin, join a project, or connect your wallet. Any post that does is not from us!
We are truly sorry to everyone who lost money. We have regained control of the account and strengthened its security.
Be careful with anyone who contacts you claiming they can "recover" lost funds. We will never DM you first.
If you have questions, feel free to comment
Rate hikes should pull money out of risky assets. Yet in the two weeks after the Fed's first hike since 2023, US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $2.93B, $999M of it on 21 September. Before the hike, September flows were negative.
solberginvest.com/newsletter
If you hold Bitcoin and want yields to drop, care more about why than when. Falling because inflation cools is good, like late 2023. Falling because something breaks means Bitcoin gets sold for cash first, like Covid, before money printing helps.
Bitcoin fell in Q4 of the last two midterm years, 2018 and 2022. Both times the Fed hiked in September and the drop came around day 50, 5 November this year. But two cases aren't a rule, and both had crypto-specific triggers: FTX and the hash war.
solberginvest.com/newsletter
One check for whether a Bitcoin rally is fragile: futures open interest. While Bitcoin held near $86K, it fell from $38B to $36.6B. Flat price, less leverage means spot buyers, and spot buyers don't get liquidated in the next dip.
Bitcoin is at $86K.
It shouldn't be.
Oil in the $90s. The Fed's first hike since 2023. A 10-year yield at 5.29%. All three make money more expensive, which is supposed to be bad for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin went up anyway. Three things explain it.
The risk: day 50 lands on 5 November.
In 2018 and 2022 the Fed hiked in September and Bitcoin broke lower about 50 days later. A 2022-style 15% drop means about $64K. But two cases aren't a rule, and both had crypto-specific triggers: FTX and the hash war.
What's next: 14 October CPI, the Fed's 27-28 October meeting, then 5 November. I'll send an updated view after the CPI and the Fed, with what would change my mind. The charts behind all three reasons and the day-50 timeline are in the article.
solberginvest.com/newsletter
