Prof @IIES_Sthlm, Prof @cemfinews, Fmr Editor @RevEconStudies, PhD @Penn, @MarshallAlums @UVA macro research @iza_bonn @cepr_org 🌈🇩🇪🇸🇪🇺🇸

Stockholm, Sweden
Joined September 2012
Have falling labor market barriers to women led to a change in selection of high-skilled women away from education, leading to a decline in the quality of teachers, and human capital production? See my co-author Kieran present our paper at NBER SI youtube.com/live/mQbLtpkXUH0…
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Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
You can list to some 1965 lectures by Isaiah Berlin on "the Roots of Romanticism" as podcasts. Very good. In a nutshell he's saying that in the late 18th century, after thousands of years, Western thought finally hit the ceiling of rational inquiry. The Romantic movement is just the sound of European intellectuals banging their heads against that ceiling. He says that there came across Europe a general and explicit realization that the jigsaw has no solution; the mess cannot be untangled; the shards do not form a whole. There is no rational reconstruction of religion, morality, aesthetics, justice, social order. There is no transcendent form which human things approximate. There is no higher truth about who is right or wrong. There is no deeper principle which can reconcile two conflicting imperatives. The manifestation of this realization, Berlin says, is the Romantic mindset: a sudden drying up of the appetite for earnest inquiry. There is no buried treasure so put down your spade. A turn towards nature, art, irrationalism, authenticity, commitment to a cause (whatever the cause may be), primitive and ancient things, the sublime. This also gives an interpretation of subsequent intellectual history. There were additional attempts to systematize and make sense of human ends (Utilitarianism, Marxism, Logical Positivism, Modernism, Welfare Economics, Rationalism), but they tend to be adopted only by the less clear-sighted, and attempts to make them intellectually rigorous fizzle out. The mainstream position has instead been either to avoid talking about fundamental ends at all or to adopt some kind of explicit irrationalism (Existentialism, Postmodernism, Pragmatism). Isaiah Berlin himself is famous as an advocate of muddling-through: he says somewhere else that all the problems of the 20th century came from taking abstract ideas too seriously.
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Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
This misdiagnoses things in a few different ways - let me try to unpack. (1) A lot of the 10x new economists of AI are empirical. Truly empirical econ is modest and backward-looking. (2) What you want is new theory - that's where big new approaches will live/come from. 1/
Few years ago, there was just a handful of economists seriously thinking about AI (@akorinek,@pawtrammell,@erikbryn,Carl Shulman & few of their collaborators) and I was like 'this is insane, there should be 10x as many'. Now it's ~10x-30x more and frankly it is disappointing so far. Majority of the new economists bring a mindset and frames which are something between unhelpful to directly harmful for understanding AGI - not taking AGI seriously / "AI as a normal technology" - merchants of cope dynamic (in high demand by the labs) - labour/capital mindset - people were wrong about risks of tech transitions in the past and by induction they are again etc... coupled with epistemic arrogance. Sorry for being very blunt, by my impression is part of the problem is economists are often used to be in the broader context of humanities where they are the most quantitative and in some ways the smartest lot in various rooms, and others disagree with them for bad reasons. But this is _not_ the case relative to AI safety a few years ago!
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The best book I've read so far this year. You think there's nothing left to read on this topic, but this was a totally new perspective for me. A total brainfuck, if you will.
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I'm thrilled to be launching Econvitals today. It's been the main way in which I have been tracking and understanding the economy over the last several months. And I decided I might as well share it with all of you--for free. Has a combo of website, email lists & social media.
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Enhorabuena a Nezih Guner, director del CEMFI, por su elección como Fellow de la Econometric Society, una de las más altas distinciones que otorga la comunidad internacional de economistas a quienes han realizado contribuciones extraordinarias al campo de la economía. 1/2
Nezih Guner has been elected as a Fellow of The Econometric Society cemfi.es/all_news_blog_detai…
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Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
New essay in @ForeignAffairs with James Manyika and @elerianm on steps that can be taken to help AI deliver on its economic promise, drawing on lessons from cooperative game theory as a guide. Most conversations treat AI as a general-purpose technology (GPT), and some compare it to the Industrial Revolution. But we think it is more than that: it is also a method for creating new inventions, like the microscope or the scientific method. Economist Zvi Griliches famously called such discoveries IMIs--inventions of a method of invention. Seen this way, AI carries the potential of the Industrial Revolution and the Enlightenment combined. Yet realizing this potential is a coordination problem. Delivering on the promise of AI requires progress not just on furthering its capabilities, but on building out infrastructure, deep adoption across the economy, and buy-in from many different groups. This is unlikely to happen if people do not feel they have a stake in the upside of the technology. Promises of abstract scientific and medical breakthroughs in the future won't change this when anxieties about near-term disruption are running hot. Rather than treating AI like a zero-sum game, we argue that it is useful to look to cooperative game theory as a guide. Because models, compute, organizational change, and human upskilling are strong complements, AI has the structure of a "convex game": Each group that joins makes everyone else's contributions more valuable. That makes it possible to form stable coalitions of workers, communities, firms, and developers where incentives are aligned and everyone has a stake in the gains. The cooperative approach will of course not be easy, but we will make the case that coalitions can start small and grow as the mutual gains become tangible. We provide concrete examples of how this can be done in practice and at scale. Link to essay here: foreignaffairs.com/guest-pas…
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Delighted to to CEMFI Madrid as Professor of Economics. CEMFI does exactly what I care most about (macro, heterogeneity, inequality, monetary) and has a close connection with the Banco de España. I’ve admired it from a distance for most of my career, so this is a real thrill. 1/3
A warm welcome to CEMFI’s five new faculty members: Carolina Arteaga, Florin Bilbiie, Florencia Hnilo, Alex Osberghaus, and Anatoli Segura. Their arrival enriches our academic community and opens new directions for research and teaching at CEMFI. cemfi.es/all_news_blog_detai…
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Finance research has much to contribute to public life. The exchange works best when it runs in both directions: our evidence can inform decisions, and the questions practitioners and policymakers face can inspire new research. lnkd.in/gxrSqMZr
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Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
Replying to @scaling01
Hey @AnthropicAI employees, would any of you like to put your money where your mouth is and join this bet? Still very much looking for counterparties on the fast-growth (=real GDP growth > 15% by 2033) side benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/
Some real diversity of opinion at Google DeepMind: @alexolegimas joins the bet while his colleague @SamuelAlbanie takes the other side increasing his existing stake! Total size of pot now $425,000! benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/
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My former classmate and Model UN partner is severely under followed
This is my response to ongoing debates about AI in scholarship. Most of the debate bifurcates into two sides: it's the human factor that matters or it's the results that matter. Classic deontology vs. utilitarianism. My response is that neither of these matter ... /1
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Replying to @jmhorp
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One of the best jobs you can get.
Are you on the economics job market this year? The IIES is recruiting a tenure-track Assistant Professor. We welcome applicants from all fields of economics. Apply by Nov 13. #EconTwitter #AcademicJobs More info: su.se/english/divisions/inst…
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Apply to come join us at the institute! A fantastic place to start a career. Join our new five excellent hires that started this fall @RHelensdotter @ReichardtHugo @caterina_vieira @CanishkNaik @KHarmenberg
Are you on the economics job market this year? The IIES is recruiting a tenure-track Assistant Professor. We welcome applicants from all fields of economics. Apply by Nov 13. #EconTwitter #AcademicJobs More info: su.se/english/divisions/inst…
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With Mike Woodford's Nobel Prize, this has been a week of extreme joy at his well-deserved recognition (and Bob Hall's, of course). Yet, I won't deny it, also a week of some self-reflection and personal crisis. You see, he was my main advisor at Princeton. Now, looking at my other advisors, one cannot help but wonder: What value added could I possibly have contributed to my own research agenda, formulated in the early 2000s at Princeton? As it turned out, the coming years would be eventful for my other three advisors: Krugman (Nobel 2008), Sims (Nobel 2011), Bernanke (Nobel 2022). With this sample of three establishing Granger causality (predictive, not causal, whatever the name suggests; Sims himself did much to bring the concept into macroeconomics), I confidently stated the inevitable conclusion in 2022 on Twitter (now X): considerable money could be won in betting markets by placing a bet on Woodford getting the Nobel Prize in the coming years. I am not a betting man, but I hope somebody made money. Yet, there is a twist to the story. How does one define one's PhD committee? The way I have defined it is the people you worked the most with, who wrote you letters of recommendation when you went on the job market, and who then signed off on your thesis later. At Princeton, there was a rather liberal policy on when the actual formal defense took place. At that time, your main advisor dragged in whoever happened to be around to listen to you talk for 30 minutes or so. I don't remember who was actually around for the formalities, except Mike and, hard to forget, Chris Sims. Characteristically, Chris sent me an email the night before telling me that he thought Markov perfect equilibrium made no sense, which generated a lively exchange. Those who did not know Chris might have thought this was inconsiderate, as if he were trying to block my defense. It was quite the opposite. Chris was just the quintessential scholar. He was reading the thesis and just wanted to talk about it. But back to this week's reflections. I would be remiss not to mention that there was another, perhaps unexpected by those familiar with monetary economics, utility player at Princeton during my time. And this utility player actually happened to be one of the people I spoke the most with, for I was closest to him in age, TA'd his grad classes for him and, memorably, a Money and Banking class where he taught the entire class using a microfounded IS-LM model based upon a two-generation OLG model. I still remember the puzzlement on one of the students' faces as he asked me in a TA class: So prices are fixed for ... 30 years? And he DID write a letter for me (bringing the total of this group to five!). So, fellow economists, prepare your bets. Given my research agenda in monetary economics, he may seem to be coming a bit out of left field. Then again, he is one of those economists who could advise anyone on anything. The utility player was none other than the George J. Stigler Distinguished Service Professor in Economics and the College at the University of Chicago: Robert Shimer. He's much younger than the others, so it may take some time. But you heard it here first: Prepare your bets! PS. Picture taken at a conference in honor of Mark Gertler recently. Paul and Rob added, courtesy of AI, ex post.
🤖 Made with AI
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Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
Data project (AI-able) and exam (paper, no aids) score distribution on the undergraduate Development Economics course I have been teaching at Stockholm University, 2022-2026.
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Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
I was at research@ today and saw Yossi give this talk. Natural disasters like flash floods, wildfires, earthquakes etc destroy thousands of lives and millions of livelihoods every year. The ability to predict disasters ahead of time, giving people time to prepare and move to safety. This is the promise of AI in action.
Replying to @ymatias
We’re expanding early access to new Google Earth AI capabilities, including our experimental Geospatial Reasoning agent & Planetary Prediction Engine. In our new technical report, we show how our agent more than doubles the accuracy on complex spatial problems compared to language models out of the box. Some of our partners have already put the agent to work — like WHO AFRO using it in the DRC to map remote Ebola exposure risks across 48 settlements in minutes. More about our announcements: goo.gle/4i2ZyOE The new technical report: arxiv.org/abs/2610.15750 Experimental Geospatial Reasoning agent: sites.research.google/gr/geo…
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Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
Very timely with Bob Hall's arrival to Sweden to receive the prize, were having a mini-conference on The Micro and Macro of Household Consumption-Savings Decisions in Uppsala on Dec 3-4. Great line-up of exciting talks! Including @leth_soren @joj_como @glviolante @morganemrichard @mboutros_econ @francescofurla8 @heddathorell @RoineVestman @dwschanz @esavoia_econ @SorryToBeKurt @cblandhol, keynote @R_Blundell_UCL, and more!
🤖 Made with AI
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Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
Sharing some more or less random 2am-breastfeeding-musings from a few weeks ago. If you'd like to write your story, send it to us! We'll keep publishing personal ones when we return with Phase 3 of @OneExtraYear!
It’s bonus story day! 6 weeks into OneExtraYear’s maternity leave (which is all you get at many places; see our data website), we hear some postpartum musings by our very own @Ale_M_Peter. While we will move our focus to solutions when we return, we’ll still publish personal stories to keep @OneExtraYear's special touch. So, send us a story if you’d like to share yours! substack.com/home/post/p-220…
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One extra year is back. Check out this bonus story ( where I have a cameo appearance)
It’s bonus story day! 6 weeks into OneExtraYear’s maternity leave (which is all you get at many places; see our data website), we hear some postpartum musings by our very own @Ale_M_Peter. While we will move our focus to solutions when we return, we’ll still publish personal stories to keep @OneExtraYear's special touch. So, send us a story if you’d like to share yours! substack.com/home/post/p-220…
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Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
So over-the-moon-thrilled that Bob Hall won the Nobel Prize in economics today. We have been friends and coauthors for more than 30 years, and I've learned so much from him! A few stories: 1/N
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