Crypto Investor & analyst. Not Financial Advice
Joined May 2020
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BRAZIL'S STOCK MARKET IS CRASHING.
$EWZ has fallen -19% tonight as Lula has taken a last minute lead in the polls and is now expected to win the election.
US PCE and core PCE inflation data for September will be released on Thursday.
Core PCE is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, and it has been stuck at 2.5-3.0% for over 2 years now.
US futures markets will open in 1.5 hours.
If you are prepared, there will be a lot of opportunities over the next 5 days.
It's going to be a big week.
Monday:
-Strategy 8-K filing
Wednesday:
-Fed rate decision
-Warsh press conference
-BoC rate decision
-GOOG and MSFT earnings
Thursday:
-US PCE inflation September
-US Q3 GDP growth rate (advanced)
-US personal income/spending September
-ECB rate decision
-AMZN, INTC, SNDK, MSTR, and COIN earnings
Friday:
-BoJ rate decision
$BTC is about to close its 3rd straight red weekly candle for the first time since May.
Where are the bulls?
It's going to be a big week.
Monday:
-Strategy 8-K filing
Wednesday:
-Fed rate decision
-Warsh press conference
-BoC rate decision
-GOOG and MSFT earnings
Thursday:
-US PCE inflation September
-US Q3 GDP growth rate (advanced)
-US personal income/spending September
-ECB rate decision
-AMZN, INTC, SNDK, MSTR, and COIN earnings
Friday:
-BoJ rate decision
With 1 week left in the month, $BTC is on track for its worst October performance since 2018.
If it drops another -0.6%, it will be the worst October since 2014.
These two wallets on hyperlqiuid will each be liquidated for $100M+ if $ETH drops to $2220-$2250.
It is not uncommon for large onchain positions like these to be hunted, especially during illiquid weekend hours, and when the liquidation is only a 3% move away.
Lots of traders are being shaken out of leveraged positions right now.
During just the past 24 hours, over 221,000 positions were liquidated with a total of $700M of longs and $134M of shorts rekt.
Prediction market traders are biased bullish on $BTC through the end of the year with 52% odds for BTC to rise to $90k vs 36% odds that it falls to $70k.
Bitcoin has fallen back down to test $81k as support once again, but crypto sentiment remains neutral.
I guess nobody is worried about a potential move lower?
Global oil prices are pushing even higher today with Brent seeing its highest price since June 2022.
After seeing >$1B of inflows to start the week, US $BTC ETFs just saw huge outflows of -$635.6M on Thursday.
This was the largest single day of outflows since June 25th, and comes as the US spot BTC ETF cost basis of ~$81k is being tested as support.
The US strategic petroleum reserve fell by another -300k barrels last week to its lowest level since October 1982.
Bitcoin is set to close below its 50 day moving average for the first time since mid-August.
Of the 4 other times $BTC fell below its 50D MA this year, 3 were followed by a small bounce and then a large drop of of -10% to -35%.
However, the most recent time BTC lost the 50D MA, it was able to quickly reclaim it and then saw a major new uptrend form.
Silver has fallen to its lowest level since November 2025 after a -6% drop today.
Are you buying this dip?
US-based sell pressure is surging again and is driving the sell-off for $BTC today.
The 30-year US treasury yield has fallen to its lowest level since September 23rd.
This is interesting because inflation appears to be heating back up, but the concerns about a slowdown in growth have become significant enough to outweigh those inflation concerns.
