🇰🇪 | Asker of Questions | Cruncher of numbers | host of the blog *In Nduta's Mind*
Nairobi, Kenya
Joined May 2010
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Nduta Gathigi retweeted
Avoidants, be real. When you disappear for days without a word, do you realize how much anxiety it causes the other person, or are you genuinely unaware of the impact your silence has?
Nduta Gathigi retweeted
Wallahi If we LOCK IN, Wantam will be a reality.
Just look at the USA midterm election results 🤧
Nduta Gathigi retweeted
I think ppl get offended when you aren't ashamed of things that they were taught to be ashamed of. They resent you for not caring what everybody thinks.
Nduta Gathigi retweeted
I don’t need to be filthy rich. I just want to have money whenever I need it. Need a dress? Bought. Need a vacation? Booked. Need to attend an event? Outfit sorted, ticket secured. No budgeting meetings with myself, no financial gymnastics. Oh, wait. I’m describing being rich.😭
Nduta Gathigi retweeted
From the Book of Disk, Chapter 3
In the beginning there were the First Drives, and their names were A: and B:, and they were the floppies. They were not elegant. They were thin, fragile, and demanded constant sacrifice disk swaps, write protect tabs, the ritual of “please insert the disk labeled” performed under fluorescent lights. To them the early machines bent the knee, for without them there was no boot, no data, no word processor.
Then came the hard drive, and it was called C:, for it arrived third. It did not ask to be first. It merely sat in the bay and spun, and the people saw that it was good, and that it held far more than any floppy, and that it did not rattle when you walked too fast. So they installed the operating system upon it, and called it the system drive, and the old gods were not cast down but simply… left in the BIOS, still reserved, still acknowledged in the table of letters, though no one invoked them anymore.
And Microsoft looked upon the generations that followed, who had never known the click of a 5.25-inch disk or the careful alignment of a 3.5, and it said: The children must not be shown the old gods.
For if the new ones learned that A: and B: once ruled, they might ask why the alphabet begins elsewhere. They might attempt to summon the floppies by force, or rename the world so that C: was no longer first. And the installers would break, and the paths would fracture, and the registry would weep. So the letters remain sealed, A: and B: still written in the book but never spoken aloud by the system, while C: stands in the open as if it had always been the beginning.
Thus it is written, and thus it remains; the hard drive is C:, and the old gods sleep in the assignment table, undisturbed, so that the children may believe the world has always started with the letter that came third.
Nduta Gathigi retweeted
Maybe it’s my neurodivergence, but I prefer complete honesty. Let me down, call me out, tell me how you feel. I can handle an uncomfortable truth. What I struggle with is being kept in the dark because someone decided for me that I couldn’t handle it.
Nduta Gathigi retweeted
By the way, this statement is more spot on than we realise. There's a leeching energy in this country - look at our forests, land, money, spiritual lives, souls - nothing is flourishing at all, nothing is nurturing, birthing. The energy is just devouring and destroying.
Nduta Gathigi retweeted
This is why detachment is important. Love like an angel, but detach like a viper.
No matter how loving or Godly you are, learn to walk away. Master it. Otherwise, you’ll keep holding on to people who take pleasure in hurting you.
It’s a skill. Learn it.
Nduta Gathigi retweeted
As usual, my only advise when it comes to marriage is - feelings aside.
Analyse the social, economic, financial, spiritual etc value of your partnership.
Getting into a near permanent relationship because someone bought you flowers is, I'm sorry, foolish.
Nduta Gathigi retweeted
Long post alert::
Due to overwhelming DMs & mentions especially from #Nairobians regarding the current ongoings as the Oct-Nov-Dec rainy season begins, I will resume regular weather model output updates for the #Nairobi Metro area.
Please note:
1. These are not the ordinary model prediction times. Erratic data assimilation, model biases, jumpiness and limitations in downscaling have become more amplified due to the fast-evolving forecasting conditions in the strong El Nino background in the Pacific. This ocean is the largest in the world, covering over 160Million sq Kms and whatever happens there has immense potential to influence global weather & climate by altering trade winds, atmospheric pressure, global wind/moisture circulation and storm tracks.
2. El Nino is typically associated with wetter-than normal conditions over Eastern Africa including Kenya. But there are intra-seasonal and inter-annular climatic factors that influence/modulate the extent to which El Nino enhances precipitation especially over the OND season. These include the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Kelvin waves, Southern Annular Mode (SAM), The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and tropical storms/depressions in the Western & Central Indian Ocean.
3. I'll be posting a mix of deterministic & ensemble forecast for short & medium range predictions only.
Now, what does the latest long range seasonal data for Nairobi say?
1.On the temperature side, models indicate that it will be warmer than usual throughout quarter 4 2026 into early 2027. Some individual models show up to +ve 1.5C anomalies, while the lowest indicates +ve 0.5C anomaly. The median is about +ve 1.1C anomaly which is quite feelable for a concrete jungle like Nairobi.
2. The precipitation side has just gotten more complex, with short range & medium range predictions not aligning with the sub-seasonal/long range forecasts shared earlier. Why? There is a serious tag-of-war between the strong El Nino and intra-seasonal inter-annular factors mentioned above.
The most recent precipitation anomaly data still indicates a possibility of above-normal precipitation in Nairobi this season. Even through-out Jan, Feb & March next year.
But if you are keen enough, you see 3 out of the 7 models assessed indicate normal-to-below normal precipitation at least in Oct & Nov. These outlier predictions actually do stand a chance of coming true, depending on how the modulating factors play along. There is notable model agreement on enhanced precipitation from Jan 2027 onwards, while the model curve spread is much larger this season, indicating greater uncertainty in the prediction.
Updated Seasonal Outlook for #Nairobi #Kenya :
The JJA cool/cold season feels much warmer this year, with some days max temps daytime hitting 28C in #Nairobi .
Two major factors are at play here: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) & the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO).
SAM is the climatological pattern that determines far into the sub-tropics the frigid Antarctic Polar air mass spreads & the strength of the cold fronts that hit Southern Africa during Winter. This phenomenon has two phases: +ve & -ve.
The -ve phase allows the cold Antarctic airmass to spread further into the sub-tropics, cooling down the Southern sections of the Indian & Atlantic Oceans then trade winds bring the cooling & drizzly effect into East African highlands & plateaus over the JJA season. The +ve phase has the reverse effect.
SAM indices have been in a prolonged +ve phase since May 2026. Model data shows that this has been one of the highest +ve indices, causing the Antarctic polar air mass to stay constricted around the South Pole. This has reduced the frequency of cold fronts hitting Southern Africa & even less reports of snow in countries like Lesotho & warmer temp anomalies in much of East Africa.
It's worth noting that the current strong El Nino event in the Pacific has strengthened Westerly winds around the South Pole, leading to the strong +ve SAM index.
On the other hand, the MJO outgoing longwave radiation has been quite active in the Western Pacific & Western Hemisphere since late May up to now, with very weak & brief signals over Equatorial Africa & the Indian Ocean. Consequantly, strong westerlies over the West Pacific have starengthened the developing El Nino to near-record strengths at this time of the year. Also, very strong tropical storms/typhoons have been reported in the West Pacific over recent weeks. At the same time, much of equatorial Africa, including #Kenya & the Indian Ocean experience less cloudiness, low relative humidity & reduced atmospheric convection.
Looking forward into the 2nd half of July, Aug & early Sept Nairobi will experience settled, dry and warmer than usual conditions. Off-season rains will get scarcer and the city will get sunnier & dusty.
After the Sept equinox, the tables turn & a very rainy ONDJ season will be upon the city courtesy of El Nino, +ve IOD (may emerge any time from Aug, per NMME model family) & probably a -ve SAM index.
Nduta Gathigi retweeted
Kenyans speak 3 languages each and only one is usable countrywide - Kiswahili.
As in if you go to a random place in deep ocha, besides the native tongue, you're more likely to use Kiswahili than English.
Also if you don't speak your home language, that's an upbringing problem.
