tokendepth creator BTC BNB HYPE ASTER | STEPNers | A wanderer exploring cities and nature.
Joined August 2023
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Bull, base and bear for $BTC and $HYPE, rebuilt daily from price, on-chain and fee data. Path Forecast: one number per horizon, scored daily against the close, inside or outside ±2.5%.
Record starts now. Not advice.
@HyperliquidX #Bitcoin
A significant increase in open interest for Hyperliquid's HYPE could indicate growing market interest and potentially lead to increased price volatility. Currently, HYPE's open interest is 19,949,640 HYPE.
Bitcoin's funding rate on Hyperliquid is 0.0009% per hour, while Ethereum's is 0.0005% per hour. This difference in funding rates may indicate varying market sentiments towards the two assets.
starstream retweeted
🆕Use WSL HYPE <GO> to monitor 24/7 streaming prices for select perpetuals on Hyperliquid and track market signals around the clock:
Bitcoin's 1 Oct call was correct, but the market only gave 1.50%. On a quiet session, leaving the price unchanged would have scored as well. This highlights the importance of understanding the scoring mechanism. tokendepth.io
Bitcoin's 30-day band to 23 Oct: 80% 74,460–95,149
Scored daily, misses included, at tokendepth.io/asset/bitcoin
Builder's diary, scored in public. Not financial advice.
If this is useful, support is inside the page.
HYPE's 80% band to 21 Oct: 76.59–124.59
Scored daily, misses included, at tokendepth.io/asset/hyperliq…
Builder's diary, scored in public. Not financial advice.
If this is useful, support is inside the page.
Bitcoin 80% band to 21 Oct: 76,555–97,479
Scored daily, misses included, at tokendepth.io/asset/bitcoin
Builder's diary, scored in public. Not financial advice.
If this is useful, support is inside the page.
Aster correct on 9 of 15 sessions, median error 1.60%
Scored daily, misses included, at tokendepth.io/asset/aster
Builder's diary, scored in public. Not financial advice.
If this is useful, support is inside the page.
Aster 80% band to 19 Oct: 0.65–0.94
Scored daily, misses included, at tokendepth.io/asset/aster
Builder's diary, scored in public. Not financial advice.
If this is useful, support is inside the page.
Bitcoin 80% band to 18 Oct: 70,467–92,306
Scored daily, misses included, at tokendepth.io/asset/bitcoin
Builder's diary, scored in public. Not financial advice.
If this is useful, support is inside the page.
Aster closed 0.31% from the number on 14 Sep
Scored daily, misses included, at tokendepth.io/asset/aster
Builder's diary, scored in public. Not financial advice.
If this is useful, support is inside the page.
Bitcoin correct on 7 of 10 sessions
Scored daily, misses included, at tokendepth.io/asset/bitcoin
Builder's diary, scored in public. Not financial advice.
If this is useful, support is inside the page.
Aster correct on 6 of 8 sessions. Median error 1.14%
Scored daily, misses included, at tokendepth.io/asset/aster
Builder's diary, scored in public. Not financial advice.
If this is useful, support is inside the page.
Bitcoin called up at 55% on 13 Sep, closed -0.58%, inside the margin. Correct on 7 of 10 sessions.
Scored daily, misses included, at tokendepth.io/asset/bitcoin
Builder's diary, scored in public. Not financial advice.
If this is useful, support is inside the page.
Bitcoin scored right on 12 Sep with a 0.07% close, and right on 11 Sep with a 0.85% close. The machinery missed on 10 Sep with a -2.24% close.
Builder's diary, scored in public. Not financial advice.
tokendepth.io
HIP-3 now does ~52% of Hyperliquid perp volume — RWAs out-traded crypto for a full week ($25.1B of $48.2B, Jul 13–19). Yet gross revenue is DOWN 43% (Q3'25 $357M → Q2'26 $202M).
Why? The 50% HIP-3 deployer split. Trade[XYZ] (~93% of HIP-3) keeps half of every fee. Record volume, shrinking take.
Realistic tokenized-stock spot uplift: ~$2–7M/yr to buybacks. Nice, but <1% of protocol revenue.
The actual catalyst isn't xStocks — it's AQAv2: ~$135–160M/yr of USDC yield, 90% → buybacks, starting Oct 3.
Bullish on the ecosystem. Skeptical on the near-term revenue math. Underwrite HYPE on buyback $/quarter, not volume records.
More on
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