Steve Fall (@StatsMan) profile picture

Sports analytics, AI, dad, world traveler.

Atlanta, Georgia
Joined January 2009
Photo by Steve Fall (@StatsMan)Photo by Steve Fall (@StatsMan)Photo by Steve Fall (@StatsMan)Photo by Steve Fall (@StatsMan)Photo by Steve Fall (@StatsMan)Photo by Steve Fall (@StatsMan)Photo by Steve Fall (@StatsMan)Photo by Steve Fall (@StatsMan)Photo by Steve Fall (@StatsMan)Photo by Steve Fall (@StatsMan)
Oh my goodness the Bengals' remaining schedule
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world series and super bowl wins by league (or conference)
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If the Rays win the ALCS, it will be the first time since 1980 that two teams that have never before won a World Series would meet in the Fall Classic. Last time before that was 1920
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Three teams left, and all three have bigger-than-average analytics staffs. Brewers: 46 (2nd in MLB) Rays: 39 Guardians: 30 League average: 28.5 The Phillies have the biggest staff in baseball, and they're already home. Like payroll, it's one input. Everything else combined still matters more.
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A win tonight makes the 2026 #Brewers the eighth MLB team to trail in every game they won in a best-of-7+ postseason series yet win said series. Also: -2015 Royals, WS -2004 Cardinals, NLCS -2002 Angels, WS -1997 Marlins, WS -1981 Dodgers, WS -1975 Reds, WS -1925 Pirates, WS
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2026 Postseason (everyone combined): .212/.295/.335 Brewers: .263/.354/.395 Everyone Else: .206/.287/.327
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This is a really great explanation of the expected value of extra points, two-point conversion passes, and two-point conversion runs. The idea "it's too early to go for two" is so silly. Any time win probability increases with point maximization (most of the time, especially early in the game), it's actually "too early" to kick the extra point if you expect roughly a 48% conversion rate or above when going for two. teapawt.net/EaglesXsandOs/status/2…
NFL Coaches Are Getting Two-Point Conversions Completely Wrong
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Through four games, the Cowboys offense ranks fifth in points per drive out of every offense since 2000
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Too many people are concerned with convincing others about "analytics" in baseball. It's just not worth it. Rather, look at the market. Doug Fearing wrote papers for years on process flexibility on logistics management that easily ported over to professional sports. No one seemed to listen, so he wrote this paper that was specifically on the nose. As part of this research he ended up as the Director of R&D for the Los Angeles Dodgers, then left to be the founder of Zelus Analytics, which he recently coordinated an exit to Teamworks and cashed out a presumably solid amount of money. The people and organizations who embrace analytics (whatever this means these days) tend to have a lot of success along process-oriented lines. The fact that the dadcoach/boomer guy doesn't agree doesn't mean they're misinformed. They are just innumerate and hate math in all parts of their life. The worst ones are the ones who are marginally intelligent enough to use "both-sides-ism" arguments in bad faith when they really mean they want Microsoft Excel and ChatGPT deleted from everyone's computer. No war is being fought. Everyone [0] in power realizes that running a billion dollar pro sports organization should probably use good ideas on how to manage said organization. But if you're arguing for the sake of arguing, that's fine. We all need hobbies. [0]: Well, mostly. There's like 1-2 holdouts.
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MLB games used to be longer than Oppenheimer Now, thanks to the pitch clock, they are only as long as The Dark Knight Rises!
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Regarding NBA/sports analytics discourse, I've been saying this for a while, but it's long past time we stop celebrating a team or sport for simply "using analytics" and start evaluating how teams are using analytics. Same as a strength coach or a team dietician.
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Players who improve their teammate's shot quality the most when they're on the court.
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The New York Knicks have outscored their opponents by 272 points in the past 12 games That's the best 12-game stretch from any team in NBA history, regular season or playoffs
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The Spurs are the youngest NBA finalists in almost 50 years. Scary?
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We're one week into the playoffs, and 3 All-Stars have already missed a game. Ant will likely make it 4 Add in Reaves, Gordon, J-Dub, Divincenzo... The NBA has a playoff injury crisis. It's been brewing for about a decade, and it's getting worse
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Replying to @MLB
@MLB season starts tomorrow! I thought it would be cool to create an animation of all 30 stadiums. All of them are unique and awesome. One of my favorite parts of baseball.
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That a town the size of Baní has produced this many pro baseball players is insane. The DR is an incredible study in skill development.
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No one has ever scored 70 points in a win against a winning team. Only MJ scored over 65, and it was in a game that went into overtime. Single-game records are fun, but kind of gimmicky. That's true for Bam Adebayo, but also for Kobe, Wilt, etcetera. Either enjoy them every time or dismiss them every time, but you can't have it both ways.
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How about just stop talking about it, because revenue disparity isn't a real problem, it's an owners talking point.
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One of the reasons DVOA liked the Seahawks so much this year is that it downweights turnovers as less predictive than yards and first downs. The Seahawks, unless something very weird happens, will have no turnovers in their final four games.
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