Stephvrealtor

TORNADO SEASON BEGINS SOON: Alabama’s tornado season runs from November through May, so we will be in that season in less than one week. Here's a map that needs a little explaining. It's from Dr. Victor Gensini's group at Northern Illinois University — a 'top ten analogs' map for Week 3, November 10–16. Dr. Gensini is a friend and they do wonderful work at NIU. Here's what that means: they found the ten past weeks whose large-scale patterns best matched the one expected that week, then plotted where tornadoes happened in those weeks. Each dot is a tornado report from those analog weeks. Red dots are significant tornadoes, EF2 or stronger. Total: 290 tornadoes across the ten weeks, an average of 29 per week, with 39 significant ones. Notice where they cluster: the Deep South, including right here in Alabama, plus parts of the Midwest. That's the classic fall severe weather setup for “Dixie Alley”. Important: this is NOT a forecast of 290 tornadoes that week, and it doesn't mean your town gets hit. It's a heads-up: the pattern shaping up for mid-November has historically produced elevated tornado activity in the Southeast. Stay weather-aware as we get into November.

I am sick and tired of people in traditional "broadcast meteorology" posting smiling selfies during the approach of Isaias. Their theory is... "It's all about ME!!" These nitwits need to spend this week in places like Lenox, Peterman, and Canoe Alabama cutting trees off homes and feeding people. If you want to be a social media influencer or a model, fine. But stay out of weather. Please.

WIND: Here is a look at the potential peak wind gusts as Hurricane Isaias move through Alabama tomorrow night and Saturday morning.  The model is showing 10 meter wind gusts, for what is expected a little over 30 feet off the ground. But the surface wind gusts will be similar to these values.  Zoom in and you can see the numbers more clearly. Be prepared for power outages… 

ISAIAS GROWING STRONGER: Tropical Storm Isaias this afternoon has sustained winds of 50 mph, and is about 520 miles south/southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It is moving to the east/northeast at 8 mph. The latest NHC forecast track pushes Isaias into the Central Gulf Coast around midnight Friday night with sustained winds of 90-95 mph. The circulation then moves quickly through West Alabama during the day Saturday. Here are the key messages this afternoon *A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the northern Gulf Coast from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi to Indian Pass, Florida. This includes all of the Alabama Gulf Coast. *On the latest forecast package, NHC nudged the track a little to the east, showing landfall near Perdido Key Friday night around midnight. Winds at the time of landfall are still expected to be in the 95-100 mph range. As you look at the maps, remember a hurricane is not just a dot or a skinny black line. Wind and rain impacts will extend far from the center, mainly on the eastern side of the system. *A five to seven foot storm surge is forecast for the Alabama coast and Mobile Bay. *Rain amounts could exceed 6 inches along the coast Friday through Saturday morning. The most significant rain and wind on the coast will come from 12 noon Friday to 12 noon Saturday. *Saturday will be a windy, wet day for inland Alabama. Rain amounts of 2-4 inches are possible over the western half of the state, with 1-2 inches over North and East Alabama. Winds could gust to 40/50 mph over West Alabama as Isaias moves northward. *A few tornadoes are possible Saturday morning, mainly over the southern half of Alabama. *Models continue to trend faster. A good chance much of the rain will be over in time for the Alabama/Georgia game in Tuscaloosa, and the Zach Bryan concert in Auburn. There will still be a risk of showers at both venues, but not the widespread rain we will experience Saturday morning. *The weather improves on the coast by late Saturday morning with a clearing sky and diminishing wind. The rest of the weekend and all of next week will be dry. *Rain will move out of North Alabama Saturday night, and Sunday will be warm and dry statewide. And, remember, with any tropical system forecast changes are likely, so keep up with the latest updates.

MID-MORNING UPDATE: Some notes... *Isaias is still expected to make landfall on the Alabama Gulf Coast late Friday night with winds of 90-95 mph. *Storm surge flooding is likely on the coast along and east of the point of landfall. *Impacts inland during the day Saturday include heavy rain and flooding (2-4 inches for West Alabama), strong winds (40/45 mph gusts possible across West Alabama), and a few isolated tornadoes (highest tornado threat is over the southern half of the state. *Models continue to trend toward a faster forward motion. This is good news concerning the Alabama/Georgia football game in Tuscaloosa, and the Zach Bryan concert in Auburn. Most reliable models now suggest the rain will be ending sometime between 6:00 and 8:00 p.m. with diminishing wind. Will have another update with more details a little later this morning.