Former Project 2049; USAF veteran; #SIGINT; former OSD Senior Country Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia; #wedorecover🇺🇲🇹🇼
Joined May 2014
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This ain’t hard. The status quo in the TW Strait is the existence of two equally legitimate governments on both sides. A democratic ROC (Taiwan) and an autocratic PRC. US cross-Strait policy needs to reflect a much more accurate representation of this status quo. @amanda_hsiao
Mark Stokes retweeted
NEW EVENT! Join @Project2049 on 3/28 at 10:00am EDT for "Why We Stand with #Taiwan and Allies in the #IndoPacific." This live stream discussion will feature P2049 Chairman #RandySchriver and
@SenDanSullivan, followed by a panel of experts!
RSVP Here: ow.ly/9qeA50Ni6Mu
Mark Stokes retweeted
Proud to see the latest op-ed by @Project2049 team on US-Taiwan defense industrial cooperation. Good work, @Stokes2049, @ColbyFerland, and @Eric_K_Lee!
thehill.com/opinion/national…
Mark Stokes retweeted
NEW: “A peek at the future of US-Taiwan defense industrial cooperation.” By my esteemed @Project2049 colleagues @Stokes2049 @colby_ferland @Eric_K_Lee thehill.com/opinion/national…
Mark Stokes retweeted
ONE WEEK AWAY from @Project2049's next webinar! Join us Thursday, 10/6 at 2:00pm US EDT for "Chairman #RandySchriver and @DAlexBlumenthal: "A Turning Point in Competition with #China." RSVP & participate in LIVE Q&A: ow.ly/frui50KXjfU
Mark Stokes retweeted
[the bottom line] ...the overwhelming majority [in Taiwan] prefers the status quo, which to them means that the country—the Republic of China (Taiwan)—is already sovereign and independent, negating the need for a change of name or a declaration of de jure independence. 10/
Mark Stokes retweeted
For the cyber side of the story see both the fantastic FBI indictments (unprecedented with how much detail they had) and my 2018 reporting which pulls it all together (unfortunately later pulled from CS site due to a marketing snafu, NOT inaccuracy) 🤷♂️ passle-net.s3.amazonaws.com/…
Mark Stokes retweeted
The #PLA has routinized its naval and aerial presence on the #Taiwan side of the “median line” in the Strait, a tacit demarcation that, for decades, had served as a buffer against provocative adventurism as well as accidents. My latest for the @ProspectF pf.org.tw/tw/pfch/13-9621.ht…
Mark Stokes retweeted
Sullivan, like many other American officials before him, noted that China's position on Taiwan has changed over the decades while the US one hasn't. My question is why does the US believe that it can maintain the peace and status quo by being irresponsive to China's changes?
Mark Stokes retweeted
It's the last day of the month, which means it's time for my first monthly report on Taiwan ADIZ violations.
The big story of the month was @SpeakerPelosi's trip to Taiwan, which was met with large-scale military exercises by the PLA ETC that surrounded the island.
Mark Stokes retweeted
Correct. Military deterrence is the predicate. But then there must be a political strategy to induce Beijing to live with it.
Mark Stokes retweeted
Remarkable and disquieting PLA activity near Taiwan (See excellent open source analysis by @tshugart3 below).
Beijing’s campaign of coercion against Taiwan (Republic of China, ROC 🇹🇼) continues and, absent US pushback, seems likely to intensify & further destabilize the region.
Mark Stokes retweeted
How does the Chinese Communist Party think about external influence work? My latest piece argues that policymakers and analysts need to get on top of this, and worry less how CCP influence relates to received concepts like 'info ops' and hybrid threats. aspistrategist.org.au/seeing…
Mark Stokes retweeted
Rich Armitage and I have a new piece today @WarOnTheRocks about how the United States can help Taiwan (and ourselves) by getting the Taiwan Policy Act right.
A quick 🧵 on our main points:
warontherocks.com/2022/08/ge…
Mark Stokes retweeted
One of my PhD students, Col. Steve Li, wrote his doctoral dissertation on this conundrum: “Why so little?” digital.lib.washington.edu/r… A short thread of some of his findings:
Mark Stokes retweeted
Great piece by @michaelturton "Washington...needs to clearly state...it does not recognize China’s claim to Taiwan...The use of..“acknowledge” to represent [its] position must cease....[its] dangerously misleading [and] makes [it] look weak and confused."
taipeitimes.com/News/feat/ar…
Mark Stokes retweeted
I'd say Taiwan not presenting consistent messages or doing the best it can on its own defense are also issues There's a sense of entitlement and victimhood from some Taiwanese that seems hollow given its actual situation and that there're many other people who are truly suffering
Mark Stokes retweeted
Our other narrative weakness is the general error, silence, and obfuscation on what the actual status of Taiwan is under the policy of the US and other democracies. Hard to answer "why are we defending Taiwan?" w/o explaining the last 100 years of diplo history Zzzzzzzz
Mark Stokes retweeted
Hard to overstate how poorly Westerners understand Taiwan's situation. Decades of CCP propaganda have worked wonders. Large majority think of TW as being similar to HK, a "quasi Chinese" territory somehow linked officially to the PRC. This remains our primary narrative weakness.