Stuart Adam retweeted
A pre-budget-day guide to Britain's bad taxes, with a guest appearance from Hotblack Desiato:
as.ft.com/r/35162cac-87af-45…
Stuart Adam retweeted
NEW PODCAST: What should we expect from this year's Budget?
🎙️ In this special live edition of IFS Zooms In, @HelenMiller_IFS, @StuartAdam_IFS and @MaxWarnerIFS discuss the choices facing the Chancellor on energy bills, taxes and public spending:
Stuart Adam retweeted
😠I am deeply disappointed by the Welsh Government's decision to postpone the council tax revaluation - and the misinformation from some opposition parties about what a revaluation would have entailed.
We're sending out a PR shortly. But some quick thoughts...
Horrible decision from Welsh ministers not to go ahead with a much-needed update of property valuations for council tax in 2028, having previously voted for the legislation. Inexcusable. 1/3 bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6ly…
The reason given for postponing revaluation is nonsensical. In effect saying they won't go ahead because, to pay for phasing in losses gradually, they don't want to similarly phasing in gains – so instead no gains at all! Absurd logic. 2/3
Officially postponing to 2032 – but no reason it'll be any easier to go ahead then. Wales’ planned revaluation had been a beacon of hope for reform in Scotland & England; no longer. A setback for the cause of sensible policy. Depressing.
Our full response: ifs.org.uk/articles/welsh-go…
Stuart Adam retweeted
The profile of departmental spending growth was already set to slow significantly.
Now higher inflation is eroding the real value of depts' spending.
Holding down spending growth is an option, but means accepting lower quantity or quality of public services.
The main challenge the Chancellor will face at the Budget will be from public service spending. Pressures could plausibly sum to £35 billion in 2030-31.
Even back in March, plans already looked tight because spending growth is planned to slow markedly.
ALT Chart shows planned annual real-terms spending growth for day-to-day and capital spending based on March 2026 OBR forecast. Title states: "On inherited plans, departmental spending growth is front-loaded, and set to slow sharply after this year."
Stuart Adam retweeted
Public service spending is rising, but there are increasing pressures on existing plans, spending growth is set to slow sharply and the govt may have ambitions to spend more in some areas.
Our chapter examines the Chancellor’s choices at the Budget: ifs.org.uk/publications/publ…
Stuart Adam retweeted
Final reports of @theIFS annual Green Budget now out!
The punchline: the economic situation has worsened since spring and the main challenge will come from inflation eroding departments’ budgets & squeezing public services rather than falls in ‘headroom’
ifs.org.uk/news/spending-pre…
Stuart Adam retweeted
NEW: "It would push up the price of high-end housing, benefiting existing owners more than those who might buy such properties in future."
IFS Senior Economist @StuartAdam_IFS responds to the Conservative Party's announcement on changes to inheritance tax.
ALT Quote from Senior Economist Stuart Adam. Quote reads: "The biggest beneficiaries would be those with the highest wealth and the most valuable homes. These will mostly be people living in London and the South-East. When put alongside the abolition of stamp duty on main homes and a cancellation of the ‘mansion tax’ it would push up the price of high-end housing, benefiting existing owners more than those who might buy such properties in future."
Stuart Adam retweeted
Econ profs: if you have talented students interested in academic careers in applied micro, point them towards @TheIFS.
We provide support for people undertaking PhDs part-time alongside work.
Our placements of people completing PhDs over the last 15 years are great. (1/4)
Stuart Adam retweeted
NEW: The government has committed to sharing a portion of income tax revenues with mayors. But how will this work?
Part of the IFS Green Budget 2026 with support from @CIPFA and @NuffieldFound, our new report examines the key choices and trade-offs the Chancellor faces ⬇️
Stuart Adam retweeted
This is the chart the explains the change to the triple lock - rather than a ratchet effect it has a glide path back to average earnings. Much more sensible
NEW: How will the new triple lock work and what effects will it have?
📊@JCribbEcon, @Heidi_Karj and @HelenMiller_IFS' new comment explains how the new triple lock would work, how much it would cost and how it compares to the previous triple lock:
ALT Chart is an illustration of how the new triple lock would operate compared to the old triple lock.
Huge improvement to how the triple lock will work from 2030. (Great explainer from my @TheIFS colleagues here.)
V. important for the long run. But likely to be many years before it saves enough to fund much extra social care spending. That will need more money from elsewhere.
NEW: How will the new triple lock work and what effects will it have?
📊@JCribbEcon, @Heidi_Karj and @HelenMiller_IFS' new comment explains how the new triple lock would work, how much it would cost and how it compares to the previous triple lock:
ALT Chart is an illustration of how the new triple lock would operate compared to the old triple lock.
Stuart Adam retweeted
However high you want the state pension to be, the ‘triple lock’ is awful way to achieve it
It ratchets up value of state pension in an unpredictable way - could reasonably be expected to push up spending by anywhere between £5bn & £40bn a year in 2050
Stuart Adam retweeted
NEW PODCAST: Land value tax, the perfect tax?
🎙️@HelenMiller_IFS, @StuartAdam_IFS, and @BenZaranko explain how a land value tax would work, who would gain and lose from introducing one, and why its effects can be very different for existing landowners and future buyers.
Stuart Adam retweeted
#Counciltax is in the news again as Reform UK defend council tax rises. Some facts and figures to help make sense of this debate.
1⃣ The county councils where Reform won a majority in 2025 put up council tax by 3.9% on average, compared to 5.0% on average elsewhere. BUT...
Stuart Adam retweeted
NEW PODCAST: How to fix business rates
Would cutting business rates actually help shops and pubs - or simply make landlords richer?
Listen to our new episode with @HelenMiller_IFS, @StuartAdam_IFS and @BenZaranko
ifs.org.uk/articles/how-fix-…
Stuart Adam retweeted
@reformparty_uk have announced a big set of proposals for benefit cuts. Here's a short* thread of some quick reactions
*quite long
