Engineer studying the emotional state of the Bitcoin market using language analysis. Writing about my findings at Bitcoin Sentiment Weekly.
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Joined July 2022
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Ya'll asked... I listened.
I'm officially kicking off a weekly newsletter for anyone that wants to stay up to date with the most recent changes across the Bitcoin sentiment landscape.
First issue is live!
sentimentsully.substack.com/âŚ
Michael Sullivan retweeted
NEW EPISODE with @_Checkmatey_ and @SullyMichaelvan just dropped on @TitcoinPodcast
Watch it here: youtu.be/obM46vs1jBo
We discuss:
⢠Has Bitcoin finally run out of sellers?
⢠Why price is recovering while Bitcoiners still feel bearish
⢠Hoping Bitcoin goes up isnât the same as buying it
⢠Bitcoin adoption happens âone funeral at a timeâ
⢠Why AI can copy almost anythingâbut not Bitcoinâs history
Michael Sullivan retweeted
I have not watched it yet but every time i see @SullyMichaelvan its dam good!. Watching it now.
Bitcoin Is Up. Why Do Bitcoiners Still Feel Bearish? | James Check & Michael Sullivan
youtube.com/watch?v=obM46vs1âŚ
Michael Sullivan retweeted
âThere is no one left to sell.â - @_Checkmatey_ with @SullyMichaelvan on the Bitcoin disbelief rally.
Bitcoinâs Disbelief Rally: Who Is Left to Sell?
@_Checkmatey_ & @SullyMichaelvan with @WalkerAmerica
Fountain: fountain.fm/episode/n9EEN4EZâŚ
YT: youtube.com/watch?v=obM46vs1âŚ
Rumble: rumble.com/v7hd090-has-bitcoâŚ
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5XDâŚ
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcasâŚ
Get Emailed: walkeramerica.substack.com/
The bears want you afraid.
The bears DEFINITELY don't want you to too see all the signs of disbelief in the market.
But the signs are there for those with the eyes to see them... Bitcoin looks bullish. Here's James, Walker, and myself discussing this thesis in detail.
Bitcoinâs Disbelief Rally: Who Is Left to Sell?
@_Checkmatey_ & @SullyMichaelvan with @WalkerAmerica
Fountain: fountain.fm/episode/n9EEN4EZâŚ
YT: youtube.com/watch?v=obM46vs1âŚ
Rumble: rumble.com/v7hd090-has-bitcoâŚ
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5XDâŚ
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcasâŚ
Get Emailed: walkeramerica.substack.com/
Live now!
Come hang out and chat Bitcoin sentiment.
Good morning! Set your reminder and join us today at 10:00 am EST!
xitter.cf/i/spaces/1oJMvNojWQpxQ
Michael Sullivan retweeted
Good morning! Set your reminder and join us today at 10:00 am EST!
xitter.cf/i/spaces/1oJMvNojWQpxQ
Michael Sullivan retweeted
Bitcoin investor sentiment is showing an interesting divide.
Newer investors are expressing historically high levels of anger and declining optimism, while experienced holders are considerably more positive.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ collaborates with @SullyMichaelvan to combine sentiment and onchain profitability data, exploring why these two groups see the Bitcoin market so differently.
newsletter.checkonchain.com/âŚ
Teamed up with Checkmate to put together another fantastic piece to start your week.
A lot has happened in Bitcoin since we collaborated on Peak Apathy... This go-round, we combine sentiment and onchain data to answer a different question.
Is this actually a disbelief rally?
We're back with another collaborative piece with Sultan of Sentiment @SullyMichaelvan.
Last time we joined forced we discussed Peak Apathy during the late stage bear.
This week, we're analysing what onchain + sentiment analysis tells us about Disbelief.
newsletter.checkonchain.com/âŚ
Michael Sullivan retweeted
Great interview.
If you arenât following @SullyMichaelvan, youâre missing out.
$MSTR holders are more convicted than Bitcoiners. And the data proves it.
@SullyMichaelvan joins @AdamBLiv to break down the sentiment data behind amplified Bitcoin, $BTC's philosophical civil war, and why he thinks weâre in a disbelief rally.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:39 Bitcoinâs Philosophical Civil War
06:29 Why Buy Bitcoin Treasury Companies
11:30 The Merton Model Explained
22:33 Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Historic Lows
32:41 How Michael Measures Sentiment
37:47 MSTR Holders Vs. Bitcoiners
44:20 The Coldcard Divide
47:49 Strive Sentiment After The Reverse Split
53:48 Is The Bitcoin Bottom In?
57:07 Bitcoinâs Correlation With Gold
59:29 Closing Thoughts
Michael Sullivan retweeted
I had an awesome conversation with @SullyMichaelvan on a personal theory of mine:
Investors deliberately choosing amplified Bitcoin exposure may have even stronger conviction than Bitcoiners themselves.
@SullyMichaelvan and I put that hypothesis to the test using actual investor sentiment data.
The findings are fascinating.
Lots of interesting signal as we look into the data here.
Youâre gonna want to check this one out!
$MSTR holders are more convicted than Bitcoiners. And the data proves it.
@SullyMichaelvan joins @AdamBLiv to break down the sentiment data behind amplified Bitcoin, $BTC's philosophical civil war, and why he thinks weâre in a disbelief rally.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:39 Bitcoinâs Philosophical Civil War
06:29 Why Buy Bitcoin Treasury Companies
11:30 The Merton Model Explained
22:33 Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Historic Lows
32:41 How Michael Measures Sentiment
37:47 MSTR Holders Vs. Bitcoiners
44:20 The Coldcard Divide
47:49 Strive Sentiment After The Reverse Split
53:48 Is The Bitcoin Bottom In?
57:07 Bitcoinâs Correlation With Gold
59:29 Closing Thoughts
Had a fantastic conversation with Adam discussing the philosophical divide in the Bitcoin community... and why I continue to believe we're in a disbelief rally.
If you watch till the end, I promise you'll get a perspective on $MSTR sentiment you've never heard elsewhere.
$MSTR holders are more convicted than Bitcoiners. And the data proves it.
@SullyMichaelvan joins @AdamBLiv to break down the sentiment data behind amplified Bitcoin, $BTC's philosophical civil war, and why he thinks weâre in a disbelief rally.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:39 Bitcoinâs Philosophical Civil War
06:29 Why Buy Bitcoin Treasury Companies
11:30 The Merton Model Explained
22:33 Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Historic Lows
32:41 How Michael Measures Sentiment
37:47 MSTR Holders Vs. Bitcoiners
44:20 The Coldcard Divide
47:49 Strive Sentiment After The Reverse Split
53:48 Is The Bitcoin Bottom In?
57:07 Bitcoinâs Correlation With Gold
59:29 Closing Thoughts
Michael Sullivan retweeted
The Revealing | The Reckoning 000
Episode zero. Apocalypse means an uncovering.
Before the first live show, @Erikcason and @WalkerAmerica sat down to say what theyâre afraid of, what they hope for, and why itâs one fight. The digital panopticon. P(doom) vs P(boom). The strongman temptation.
Edited, scored and fact-checked on screen by The Reckoningâs own AI voice, in one shot. Erik and Walker watched it before it went out and didnât change a thing.
Apocalypse or abundance? That is up to us.
The smarter you are, the better you (likely) are at lying to yourself. We're all ruled by emotions... regardless of how intelligent you think you are.
This is why HODLing Bitcoin is so challenging.
Your own psychology can betray you at precisely the wrong moment.
Michael Sullivan retweeted
Indeed my Brother Sully!đ
Bitcoin is the Tidal wave and Strategy harnesses its Power.
Mission Bitcoin is Mission Strategy. @zaidlikesmstr
2034đ
This behavior is insanely bullish IMO.
People are getting angrier every time Bitcoin dips... despite it being orderly rebought.
But the most bullish thing, IMO, is that negative emotion isn't evenly distributed. The plebs are increasingly pissed off, while the OGs are vibing.
$BTC:
Nothing has changed in the big picture. Bitcoin remains above support and has just retested it once again. Every move back towards support seems to create another wave of panic, while the structure remains the same. My longs I announced few days ago on X from $81,000 remain FULLY OPEN. I see no reason to panic and no reason to close any of these positions, as they are yet remaining in profit as we speak. Overall, I dont understand the nonsense of fear right now, but thats how the market works.
Besides the longs, I continue holding the spot positions I started building at $60,000! Nothing changed, $94,000 remains my next big move Target.
Bitcoin price keeps bouncing around the same range... and people are paying CLOSE attention.
Weâre seeing a higher density of BTC price mentions than we have in a couple of years. Itâs as though the crowd knows weâre currently standing on the precipice of something important.
But that attention hasnât translated into enthusiasm.
People are checked out.
People are bored.
So two things are true at the same time⌠the crowd is watching these price levels closely, but thereâs relatively little excitement about what comes next.
What does that combination tell us about where we are in the cycle? Where might Bitcoin go from here?
sentimentsully.substack.com/âŚ
$MSTR shareholders are still extremely bored despite the positive price momentum.
Just disbelief rally things.
All while the average Bitcoiner is bored, checked out, and angry.
You've made it this far... now comes the fun part.
HODL.
My senses are going off.
Something is happening.
All of a sudden, Fidelity and BlackRock are putting out promotional pieces on Bitcoin.
BlackRock's IBIT just took in $665M in a single day, its biggest inflow in over a year.
J.P. Morgan is now predicting Bitcoin will be the best performing asset over the next decade.
The Bitcoin bull market is going to kick off in a big way.