Swade (@SwadeHD) profile picture

Swade

@SwadeHD

Not financial advice...👀

Joined May 2012
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Elliott spoke of "the right look" as a guideline in his work, for the people who are doing janky counts like the one on the right, you should heed that advice, 9 times out of 10 theyre wrong, play the statistics.
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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if we are still in our downtrend and this is the major wave 4 this should be the end of this leg up but i have been thinking of a possible diagonal scenario
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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scenario 1 might still have 1 more small leg up, that was a strong 4hr candle close, subwaves of Y might be a wxy
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Swade retweeted
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Swade@SwadeHD13 Oct 2018
i will say though, If we break down from here, i dont believe 3k will be our bottom, this is not the first time ive looked at the 2011 fractal and if we break down rather than up our move will more closely resemble 2011 rather than 2014 this could end up taking a while ...
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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The way the count is looking atm we could likely see 2.5 - 2.8k before the major bounce, feels kind of surreal that we are sitting in the target we've held to since feb of this year, there is a possible count where that could be our bear market bottom depending on the bounce
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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have seen a couple of other posts talking about the 2011 fractal now, funny since people laughed at me saying 1k btc before we broke 6k support, that structure would still be in play also, it would feel almost too easy if the bottom was 2.5-2.8, i still believe we deadcat but 🤷‍♂️
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i left you guys with a bunch of triangle scenarios, triangles can take a long time to resolve, only thing left before i can give a more detailed EW count is getting confirmation of where the orthodox top of the triangle was Should have something within a week i hope
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With this breakdown any 2014 fractal comparison is dead, 2011 fractal looking pretty eerie, i have no doubt that 3k will provide a nice bounce as all the ppl sitting on the sidelines waiting for 3k finally buy back in, setting up for the final bulltrap
Swade (@SwadeHD) profile pictureSwade@SwadeHD13 Oct 2018
is this better quality?
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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is this better quality?
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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i will say though, If we break down from here, i dont believe 3k will be our bottom, this is not the first time ive looked at the 2011 fractal and if we break down rather than up our move will more closely resemble 2011 rather than 2014 this could end up taking a while ...
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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Havent been around much cause theres honestly not much to say, we've been mostly sideways for months, i have no bias for either direction atm, last time i gave a bunch of scenarios and not much has been invalidated i need to start shitposting 😬
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Everyone stopped talking about the 2014 fractal because they all assumed we were going faster for some reason, not saying this is the correct count for either one but the fractal similarities are still very much there unfortunately the continuation of the move is not so pretty
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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Just gonna post everything im looking at for btc, theres too many possibilities open atm to say confidently, the further along we get into the pattern the narrower the possibilities become, thats just how EW works Theres also so many valid triangles i can't even post them all
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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even the 12hr rsi is in a triangle
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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Right i am kind of ignoring that stupid candle on btc, that could affect my count, letting everyone know, same with the candle a few days earlier, counting from the close and ignoring the wick fits better in both scenarios so up to you if you agree or disagree
م.Abdulla AlHameli (@3b_ah) profile pictureم.Abdulla AlHameli@3b_ah22 Sep 2018
Replying to @SwadeHD
How come the smaller2 is lower than the bigger2!?
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As with the eth/btc chart im expecting 1 more lower low for eth, could very well be wrong as it does look quite bullish but nothing out of the ordinary for this major 4 just yet, although i was wrong about subwave 5 so if im wrong again ill cop it on the chin My primary count
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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Nothing really to update for BTC until either my count plays out or gets invalidated, but i do see something for $ETH/BTC, usually it is a leading indicator for alts and i see it following the same fractal that ethusd played out twice, bad sign for alts if it follows
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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wave 3 looks complete for eth/btc, if correct we should have a bullish week here for eth, theres always a possibility this wave 5 extends, but it wouldnt be my primary count atm
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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This wave 5 did end up extending and we got a double extension of this blue 3, with the extended 5th we should expect the retracement to come back to the wave 2 of the extended 5th before 1 more leg down, the end of this blue 5 will be the alt season ive been preparing for
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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Our current move for BTC is so far an almost exact fractal of the april bottom, at this point my primary count is up until the 5.9k low is broken, makes more sense to be bullish when your so close to bottom invalidation
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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This fractal and count is looking on point, not so much for the eth one i posted, we had an ABC up and then a continuation up, i can assume that was wave 1 of the diagonal as i maintained from the start that the move down was not an impulse wave Alternate count would be wxy up
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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just a thought for eth, lets see how price action unfolds, i think today will give us some direction but just sharing my thought process at the moment
Image from Swade (@SwadeHD)
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Not sure of what to make of the count now with this giant wick...do i ignore it as an aberration? gonna have to wait and see tbh, kind of annoying in an EW sense
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