Charts, setups & market thoughts. 📈 Watching markets. Sharing what I see.
Joined November 2015
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This market cycle chart dates back to 1875.
It marks 2007 as a year of high prices. The S&P 500 peaked that year, just before the 2008 financial crisis.
Now it highlights 2026 as another high-price year.
Coincidence or something worth paying attention to?
Time will tell.
Understanding oil helps you understand the pressure building across the economy.
Higher oil prices can set off a domino effect:
Higher production & transport costs → higher consumer prices → less spending power → weaker demand → lower profits & slower growth.
That can put pressure on stocks and bitcoin:native too.
An inflation shock can become a growth problem.
Everyone is calling for Uptober for bitcoin:native, but there’s one thing worth paying attention to:
Bitcoin hasn’t performed particularly well during October in U.S. midterm election years.
Largest October drawdowns in previous midterm years:
2014: -18.8%
2018: -18.7%
2022: -11.2%
2026: ?
Midterm Octobers have historically underperformed the usual bullish seasonal expectations.
bitcoin:native: I think it’s safe to say we’re heading into a very important weekly and monthly close.
A close above the range high would open the door for further upside and potentially some consolidation above it.
But a close back below? That could get ugly quickly and turn this breakout into a deviation back inside the range.
This close matters. 👀
bitcoin:native is showing something we haven’t seen before.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has never had a green August followed by a green September.
📊August: +24.95%
September so far: +9.76%
Q4 is historically strong, but after two unusually strong months, blindly expecting seasonality to continue might be exactly what catches people off guard.
Let’s see if bitcoin:native can actually hold this strength.
bitcoin:native Fear & Greed: 78. 🟢
Everyone gets comfortable when greed takes over.
That’s usually when I start getting cautious.
Fear is for buying. Greed is for managing risk.
Data: @Spectre__AI - ethereum:0x9cf0ed013e67db12ca3af8e7506fe401aa14dad6
The Crypto News retweeted
Interesting ❤️
Give him a follow for the alpha
Yes obv is a good indicator to look for false breakouts
Obv stands for on balance volume
On-Balance Volume (OBV) is a technical indicator that uses trading volume to track cumulative buying and selling pressure over time
@VECTORCP wanted to share this with you; watch obv on the weekly timeframe. Interesting..... Indicator flashes before the price. But price moving higher then the last local high from the range.
bitcoin:native : We finally created that higher high and broke out of the range, but everyone is long will the market makers really make it this easy? Watching this closely. Bottom is in thats for sure, but remember dips are for buying and patience we will get them.
bitcoin:native update: We’re sitting at the range high. Don’t get bullish too fast. Wait for the triggers and let price confirm the move.
My $BTC orderflow setup for AGGR is now available for free.
Lite & Full versions below. 👇
ETF flows are starting to put some pressure on BTC.
BTC spot ETFs: -$296M 1D / -$969M 7D
ETH spot ETFs: -$224M 1D / -$252M 7D
Meanwhile, bitcoin:native is sitting around $76.5K, right above a key daily support area.
Nearly $1B in weekly BTC ETF outflows while price is still holding. Worth keeping an eye on.
I’ve filled in the easy part.
ethereum:0x9cf0ed013e67db12ca3af8e7506fe401aa14dad6 → S tier.
Now help me fill the rest. What belongs where? 👀
Literally everyone is using this bitcoin:native fractal from the previous cycle.
Surely it won’t be that easy… right? 👀
What could possibly go wrong.
The Crypto News retweeted
TLDR of Gerovich’s letter:
The CEO acknowledges shareholder criticism of Metaplanet’s old management options (Series 10) and governance. In two years the company went from a small, struggling hotel operator to a large international Bitcoin treasury company. The 2023 incentive structure no longer fits.
What they are doing now (the board decided; Gerovich recused himself because he holds these options):
1. Cancel 41% of the potential option shares. The conversion ratio drops from 696 to 410 shares per warrant — the level just before the September 2025 international offering. He says this extinguishes over $220 million of warrant value and lifts Bitcoin per fully diluted share by about 8.8%.
2. Delay exercise of unvested warrants to 2029, 2030 and 2031. The lock-up through August 2031 stays in place.
3. Scrap the plan to move 20% of the warrants into a new employee incentive pool. Those warrants are cancelled as part of the 41%. A new compensation plan will be designed with an external consultant.
He argues the options were needed in 2023: near-bankrupt company, little cash pay, the team bought the warrants with their own money and took real downside risk. Now that the company has scaled, compensation and governance have to mature with it.
He also promises a stronger board (9 of 10 directors independent), more internal controls, and better disclosure in both English and Japanese.
He mentions the pending controlling stake in Nasdaq-listed Super League Enterprise.
In short: he admits the communication fell short, cuts a large slice of the disputed options, and says governance and pay will become more institutional.
CPI in 1 day.
CLARITY Act vote in 5 days.
FOMC in 6 days.
A huge week for crypto is coming.
Expect volatility. 👀
And then you wonder why no new retail is joining the crypto space.
$LAPTOP down 99%.
Unpopular opinion: most people lose money on memecoins. For every screenshot of a 100x, there are thousands you’ll never see.
Reality hits different.
Study mNAV. 👀
$MTPLF is trading at just 0.81x Enterprise Value / BTC NAV.
@Metaplanet is currently trading below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
With bitcoin:native around $79K, you’re effectively paying ~$64K of enterprise value per BTC held.
Discounted Bitcoin exposure.
