The Reckoning Project

‼️ IMPORTANT: We expect Putin to use the evacuation from Oleshky as a PR stunt and an attempt to rewrite the history of what happened in the city. The American public should be aware of Russia’s disinformation tactics and know what warning signs to watch for. Here are some key Q&As ⬇️ What is happening in Oleshky, and how severe is the humanitarian situation? Oleshky, located across the Dnipro River from Kherson city, has been under Russian occupation since 2022. An estimated 2,000 civilians remain trapped in the city, including around 50 children. Most are elderly people, people with disabilities, and their caregivers. Residents face severe shortages of food and medicine, with no access to drinking water, electricity, gas, or heating. The last regular road deliveries of food took place in May 2026. Medical and sanitary conditions have deteriorated dramatically. Russia does not provide humanitarian relief to the city and has refused to allow the ICRC or the UN to enter, despite multiple attempts. Why have residents been unable to leave? Swarming drones, heavily mined roads, and destroyed infrastructure have made it extremely dangerous for residents to leave. Russian forces have blocked civilians from fleeing and prevented humanitarian aid from reaching those trapped in Oleshky. According to @nytimes, people who managed to escape the city described residents being used as human shields. What exactly has been agreed upon now? A localized ceasefire took effect at 3 a.m. Kyiv time on October 27 to facilitate humanitarian assistance and prepare for civilian evacuations. The plan involves demining, aid deliveries, and the opening of a humanitarian corridor, with evacuations expected to begin on October 29. Ukraine welcomed efforts to provide humanitarian relief, brokered by @FLOTUS Melania Trump and @Pontifex Pope Leo XIV. Ukrainian officials have agreed to the localized ceasefire but remain concerned about implementation and compliance, given Russia’s long history of violating humanitarian agreements. Where will civilians be taken? According to @FT, residents seeking evacuation will be first taken to occupied Crimea or Russia rather than directly to Ukrainian-controlled territory across the Dnipro River. Will the evacuation through Russia be voluntary? Establishing genuine consent will be particularly difficult when residents are desperate for food, water, and medical care and have limited access to independent information. Many of these people will likely be taken to Russia against their wishes. According to Ukrainian officials, some people may decide to remain in Oleshky. What will happen to evacuees afterward? Russian officials have said that residents wishing to return to Ukraine will be able to do so. However, there are serious concerns that people transferred to Russian-controlled territory could face interrogation, filtration procedures, detention, or pressure to obtain Russian documents or register with Russian authorities. Children face additional risks, including separation from their families or placement in Russian custody. People seeking to reach Ukrainian-controlled territory may have to travel through Russia and Belarus, and then through EU countries before entering Ukraine from the west. Why is independent international monitoring essential? Ukraine's Human Rights Commissioner, Dmytro Lubinets, is coordinating evacuation requests, but important operational details remain unclear. There is no confirmation that the ICRC, UNHCR, or other independent international organizations will monitor the evacuations. Independent monitors should have access to evacuation routes and destinations, be able to speak privately with civilians, verify consent, protect children and vulnerable people, and investigate alleged violations. Will there be American observers on the ground? The White House has said an impartial American media organization will accompany the operation and document the process. @Newsmax has announced plans to send journalists to Oleshky. Their presence could provide invaluable reporting and documentation. However, journalists are not a substitute for humanitarian monitors: they do not have the same mandate, expertise, or access guarantees to protect civilians and enforce compliance with international humanitarian law. Moreover, American journalists themselves also face serious security risks in Russian-controlled territory. What Russian disinformation tactics should the public watch for? @peterpomeranzev of @TRPforJustice, who has been studying Russian propaganda for years, warns in his analysis for the @KyivIndependent that residents of Oleshky, under the pressure of living on the brink of death, could become props for Russian propagandists. Russia may be preparing to stage dozens of videos in occupied Oleshky, in which local residents will be forced to say on camera that they are happy, well-fed, and grateful to the Russian occupiers. Ukrainian officials have warned that Moscow could portray the evacuation as evidence that Ukrainians freely choose to move to Russia. Russia will most likely try to blame Ukraine for the horrors Russian army has unleashed on Oleshky — and take more Ukrainian children under the pretext of “protecting” them and providing humanitarian assistance. If you’ve read this far, please share this so more people are aware of the situation and know what to expect next. Thank you!