Former prof stock analyst/portfolio manager. Focused on dividends, particularly value opportunities. Not advice, do your own research.

Toronto
Joined August 2022
TD has a much more positive view of the $BCE.TO tower deal, raises target $4.
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The Morguards start reporting this week, with $MRG.UN tonight and $MRT.UN tomorrow. For MRG, I expect flatish FFO, but they should announce an increase to the distribution as in past years (payout under 50% YTD). MRT will likely show good growth, and an update on refinancing.
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Big tower deal announced by $BCE.TO today is greeted by the market with a big yawn. Scotia analyst says they will likely 'recycle' (spend) the money in short order.
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Highliner getting bought out - cash deal, 79% premium! Small cap dividend stock I missed unfortunately. $HLF.TO highlinerfoods.com/news/item…
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TD initiates coverage on A&W. Long track record, growth potential, and 5.5% yield. $AW.UN
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I haven't posted about AltaGas in awhile, but this caught my eye. RBC making big upward revisions, now forecasting a 27% jump in EBITDA for Q3. $ALA.TO
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$PLZ.UN closed today at $5.30, slightly above the unsolicited offer of $5.28, implying the market is expecting a deal at $5.50 or more? That may be a bit aggressive as the REIT sector has dipped meaningfully (and $MRC.TO, the largest holder, said they would sell at $5.28).
Plaza Retail REIT reports solid quarter, and more importantly, discloses that more interested parties have come along since the Axia bid. $PLZ.UN RBC comments:
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This should take some of the pressure off Toronto residential REITs $CAR.UN, $MRG.UN
The condo rental glut in the Toronto area is clearing fast. There were 5,978 condos for rent at the end of September, down 29% from last year and 44% below last November's peak. A short thread on what's going on. 1/
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NBF upgrades CT REIT - low debt level gives it an advantage in current environment. Well covered 5.7% yield $CRT.UN
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In a new note TD analysts detail the numerous problems with the H&R transaction, and set out the better alternatives if the deal is rejected. Apparently six institutional unitholders now publicly saying they will vote against. Snippet below, the deal is clearly unfair. $HR.UN
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Don’t forget to vote $HR.UN
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US CPI was higher than expected yesterday, but by the end of the day, yields were down. Now today the PPI is much higher, and the US 10-yr is down another 14 bps?! I think it was Peter Lynch who said if you spend 15 minutes a year thinking about macro you've wasted 10 minutes.
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TD analyst cuts target prices for mortgage lenders on negative sentiment (no change to estimates). 🙄 Also, he seems to be having a problem with math. Timbercreek pays 69c in annual div, which does not get a $5.50 target at a 10.5% yield. $TF.TO
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Last week's Starlink news pummeled telecom stocks. The threat to incumbent cellphone providers is debatable, and highly uncertain for Canada. Comments below from NBF. $BCE.TO, $T.TO, $RCIb.TO (and $CGO.TO now with a 8.8% yield! And a dividend increase expected this month)
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RBC does a nice job a reviewing the errors and lack of fairness in the H&R/GO deal. And also highlights something mostly overlooked, the $436 million land sale. Just kill the deal, and use the proceeds of the land sale to buy back units = 17% FFO/unit accretion! $HR.UN
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NBF latest Dividend All-Stars. They have a great track record with this list, and it’s always useful for new ideas.
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This H&R circular is a painful read. $HR.UN received a $12.50 cash offer last year, when the units were trading at $10.65. Now we are looking at a garbage non-cash deal and trading at $9.40. The entire board should be fired.
$HR.UN circular is out and it shows that Hofstedter and the "commitee" turned down numerous superior cash offers to the $Go.U deal. Add these facts to the activist letter yesterday and Mr. Ho-Fraudster and "Shady Steve" Gross is clearly in trouble and won't be getting approval.
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Timbercreek Financial $TF.TO yield now over 13%, company must be in big trouble. Oh, hold on, the CEO is buying more! 🧐
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