Tactica AI

Tactica is an AI tactical engine built for coaches, analysts, and serious football fans who want more than opinions and gut feeling. Auto-Tactics breaks down formations and tactical setups automatically. Opponent Analysis runs a full breakdown on whoever you’re about to face. Coach’s Sandbox lets you build and test tactical ideas before matchday. The Live Simulator projects how a match could actually play out. AI Chat answers tactical questions in plain language, powered by the same engine underneath everything else. And FPL Scout takes that same analysis and turns it into captain picks, differentials, and transfer calls for Fantasy Premier League managers, free to use. The engine already called Forest’s win over Liverpool, Atletico’s result against Sevilla, and Como beating Napoli before any of those games kicked off. That track record is the whole point: Tactica is built to replace the guessing with an actual number, whether you’re a coach preparing for Saturday or a fan trying to win your FPL mini-league. Follow along for pre-match breakdowns, halftime reads, full-time analysis connecting the numbers to what actually happened, and build-in-public updates as the platform grows. Football intelligence that used to belong only to clubs with a data department, now built for everyone else. Try it: tactica.com.ng

Man City top of England and rated just 37.6% at home to Brighton. Inter favoured at 47.5% in the derby with Lautaro out. Bayern on 44.4% without Musiala and Diaz. Barcelona 46.2% with four defenders out. Four leaders, three backed.

Jordan Henderson sits at just 1.7% ownership ahead of Chelsea hosting Manchester United at Stamford Bridge. With the GW9 deadline locking tomorrow at noon WAT, the cheap midfield bracket is where rank actually moves this week, and four sub-15% picks under £6.5m stand out on the underlying data and Tactica’s fixture model: 1. Jordan Henderson (Chelsea · £4.9m MID · 1.7% TSB) Chelsea went ninety minutes and a shootout at Anfield on Wednesday and lost it 6-5, two and a half days before a 12:30 kickoff. Alonso has to rotate, and Henderson’s 360 minutes across the season is the profile of a player who comes in when legs are needed rather than one who gets dropped for them. He has 25 points from those minutes at 6.2 per game, and his 7.7 expected points next is the highest figure on either differential list. United arrive rated 43 attack, second lowest in the division, with Bruno Fernandes a doubt. The cheapest route into the weekend’s most one-sided rating gap. 2. Julio Enciso (Ipswich · £5.5m MID · 0.9% TSB) Ipswich did not play midweek, and neither did Hull, so this is the rare fixture with no fatigue story on either side, which means the ratings are doing all the talking. Tactica has Ipswich at 45.4% away against Hull’s 38.5%, one of only three away sides favored this gameweek. Enciso carries 0.23 xG/90 and 0.23 xA/90 off 645 minutes, so he is playing, and at 0.9% ownership almost nobody is watching. Ipswich rate 62 attack against a Hull side on 45. 3. Evanilson (Bournemouth · £6.3m FWD · 11.2% TSB) The widest rating gap of the entire gameweek is Bournemouth at 49.3% against Leeds at 31.0%, and nothing else on the card separates two sides that far. Evanilson has 43 points from 678 minutes at 5.4 per game with form at 8.3 and 0.41 xG/90, which is the best actual output of any forward under £6.5m. The one caveat is real: Bournemouth beat Aston Villa 3-0 on Wednesday while Leeds had the full week off. A 3-0 lets you manage minutes, but it is still minutes. 4. Keane Lewis-Potter (Brentford · £5.5m MID · 2.0% TSB) Nottingham Forest rate 38 attack, the lowest figure in the Premier League, from a side that has scored six goals in eight matches and sits eighteenth. That is the softest opponent profile anywhere on the card. Lewis-Potter has 35 points from 625 minutes with 0.20 xG/90 and is owned by 2.0% of the game. Brentford did lose 3-2 at Sunderland on Wednesday while Forest rested, so the legs question is live, but Brentford rate 72 attack at home against the division’s weakest. One to leave alone: Dan Ndoye has the best underlying numbers on the list at 0.40 xG/90 and 0.22 xA/90, but he is a 50% hamstring doubt, and his expected points have already collapsed to 2.0. Low ownership is not a differential when the player might not start. Full FPL Scout & Fixture Ticker: app.tacticaengine.com/fpl

Jordan Henderson sits at just 1.7% ownership ahead of Chelsea hosting Manchester United at Stamford Bridge. With the GW9 deadline locking tomorrow at noon WAT, the cheap midfield bracket is where rank actually moves this week, and four sub-15% picks under £6.5m stand out on the underlying data and Tactica’s fixture model: 1. Jordan Henderson (Chelsea · £4.9m MID · 1.7% TSB) Chelsea went ninety minutes and a shootout at Anfield on Wednesday and lost it 6-5, two and a half days before a 12:30 kickoff. Alonso has to rotate, and Henderson’s 360 minutes across the season is the profile of a player who comes in when legs are needed rather than one who gets dropped for them. He has 25 points from those minutes at 6.2 per game, and his 7.7 expected points next is the highest figure on either differential list. United arrive rated 43 attack, second lowest in the division, with Bruno Fernandes a doubt. The cheapest route into the weekend’s most one-sided rating gap. 2. Julio Enciso (Ipswich · £5.5m MID · 0.9% TSB) Ipswich did not play midweek, and neither did Hull, so this is the rare fixture with no fatigue story on either side, which means the ratings are doing all the talking. Tactica has Ipswich at 45.4% away against Hull’s 38.5%, one of only three away sides favored this gameweek. Enciso carries 0.23 xG/90 and 0.23 xA/90 off 645 minutes, so he is playing, and at 0.9% ownership almost nobody is watching. Ipswich rate 62 attack against a Hull side on 45. 3. Evanilson (Bournemouth · £6.3m FWD · 11.2% TSB) The widest rating gap of the entire gameweek is Bournemouth at 49.3% against Leeds at 31.0%, and nothing else on the card separates two sides that far. Evanilson has 43 points from 678 minutes at 5.4 per game with form at 8.3 and 0.41 xG/90, which is the best actual output of any forward under £6.5m. The one caveat is real: Bournemouth beat Aston Villa 3-0 on Wednesday while Leeds had the full week off. A 3-0 lets you manage minutes, but it is still minutes. 4. Keane Lewis-Potter (Brentford · £5.5m MID · 2.0% TSB) Nottingham Forest rate 38 attack, the lowest figure in the Premier League, from a side that has scored six goals in eight matches and sits eighteenth. That is the softest opponent profile anywhere on the card. Lewis-Potter has 35 points from 625 minutes with 0.20 xG/90 and is owned by 2.0% of the game. Brentford did lose 3-2 at Sunderland on Wednesday while Forest rested, so the legs question is live, but Brentford rate 72 attack at home against the division’s weakest. One to leave alone: Dan Ndoye has the best underlying numbers on the list at 0.40 xG/90 and 0.22 xA/90, but he is a 50% hamstring doubt, and his expected points have already collapsed to 2.0. Low ownership is not a differential when the player might not start. Full FPL Scout & Fixture Ticker: app.tacticaengine.com/fpl

Man City given just 37.6% at home to Brighton and their 79 DEF. Arsenal favored at Anfield on 47.5% despite Saka being out for six weeks and Saliba absent. Bruno a doubt as Man Utd sit on 34.1% at Chelsea. Full Gameweek 9 board.

Scout by Tactica is live. Livescores, match detail, player comparison, and win probabilities that were locked before kickoff. That last part is the whole reason it exists. Every scores app in the world shows you a win probability. Not one of them can tell you whether the number you’re looking at is the number they had before the match started. Tactica’s numbers get written once, hours before kickoff, and the database physically refuses to change them afterwards. ATK rating, DEF rating, win probability, frozen. So when a result makes the model look stupid, the record stays stupid. Keeping it is the point. Open any match and you get lineups, head-to-head, and a Facts tab where the pre-match numbers sit next to what actually happened. The comparison tool takes any two players, any season each, and reads them off against one another on a radar. Then there’s Scout Editor, which is the other half of it. If you run a competition, you can host it. Doesn’t matter what it is. A five-a-side league that plays Tuesday evenings. A university cup. A weekend tournament between three towns that nobody outside those towns has heard of. You enter the match data live as it happens and it shows up in Scout for everyone following along. Hosting is free and there’s no limit on it. That’s the loop. Organizers run their competition on Editor. Players and fans follow it on Scout. The same app that hands you a Premier League win probability hands your Sunday league its own table and its own numbers. scout.tacticaengine.com scouteditor.tacticaengine.co…

Gyokeres and Havertz started against a League Two side on Tuesday. Isak, Wirtz, and Barcola sat on the bench on Wednesday. Arsenal are still six points better off than Liverpool. Rest is not form, and Gameweek 9 is full of fixtures where those two things point in opposite directions. 🔵 CHELSEA (5th, 13pts) v MANCHESTER UNITED (16th, 7pts) · Saturday 12:30 Chelsea played Wednesday, and Alonso protected nobody, with Caicedo captaining and Fofana, Gusto, Neto, Henderson, Welbeck, and Rogers all out there past the hour, then penalties. They get 64 hours and the earliest kickoff of the weekend. Lacroix went off with a suspected hamstring. United had no cup tie at all, out in round three. But six days of rest is the only thing they have. One league win all season, no win in their last six, 16th in the table, and a 0-3 home defeat to Bournemouth last Sunday that had Old Trafford turning on the people above Carrick. Fresh legs on a side that cannot score is not an advantage; it is just fresh legs. Chelsea are tired and better. Genuinely a toss-up. 🔴 LIVERPOOL (4th, 15pts) v ARSENAL (2nd, 21pts) · Sunday 16:30 Iraola held his forwards back. Isak came on in the 82nd, Wirtz and Barcola in the 59th, Mac Allister in the 81st, and Van Dijk off after 72. Arteta did the opposite and got punished for it, Gyokeres and Havertz starting at Fleetwood, Odegaard on for the second half, and Arsenal out on penalties to a fourth-tier club. Max Dowman was sent off in the 90th. Then look at the table. Arsenal have 21 points from eight, seven wins, one defeat, and they have won their last three league games. Liverpool have 15 and have drawn three. Arsenal also played on Tuesday, so they arrive with 116 hours against Liverpool's 92. Liverpool have the fresher forwards. Arsenal have the better team and more recovery. That is the fixture. 🩵 MANCHESTER CITY (1st, 21pts) v BRIGHTON (3rd, 16pts) · Saturday 15:00 Top against third, and the away side has the best goal difference in the division at +16, better than City's +11 from five points further back. These two drew 2-2 three days earlier and went to penalties, Maresca resting five while Hurzeler kept Gross and Ayari on for 90. Identical 67-hour turnarounds. City also lost their last league game to Aston Villa. A side that has won seven of eight is not in crisis, but the one team to beat them did it by setting up to absorb, and Brighton defend better than anyone on current numbers. Brighton used more legs on Wednesday and are still the value here. 🟣 ASTON VILLA (9th, 11pts) v FULHAM (15th, 8pts) · Saturday 20:00 Emery made nine changes and lost 3-0 to Bournemouth, which means the eleven that beat Manchester City has not played since. They get the latest kickoff of the weekend on top. Fulham played Wednesday too and lost at home to Crystal Palace. Villa are four places and three points better off with a rested first team and home advantage. The clearest edge of the six. ⚪ TOTTENHAM (14th, 9pts) v CRYSTAL PALACE (17th, 7pts) · Saturday 17:30 Two sides in the bottom half, but one is rested and in better touch. Spurs had no cup tie, six days off, and have won their last two league games. Palace won 1-0 at Fulham on Wednesday, which was their first decent result in a while, and they carry the worst goal difference of any side playing this weekend at -10. Tottenham on rest and on form. 🍒 BOURNEMOUTH (13th, 9pts) v LEEDS (7th, 11pts) · Saturday 15:00 The most misleading fixture of the round. Bournemouth sit 13th but have won five in a row in all competitions, including 3-0 at Old Trafford and 3-0 against Villa's reserves with eight changes of their own. Leeds sit seventh, having lost once all season, but they have drawn five of eight, which is how you reach seventh with 11 points. Leeds get six days. Bournemouth get 67 hours but rested the players who matter. A side winning everything against a side drawing everything. Level, and probably another draw. What it adds up to. Three clubs come in with no midweek football at all: Manchester United, Tottenham, and Leeds, and only one of them is in any kind of form. The two who played their strongest sides, Chelsea and Arsenal, both face opponents who rested. And the one fixture where both teams went close to full strength, City and Brighton, is a rematch three days later between the first and third in the table. app.tacticaengine.com

Tactica published numbers on seven matches last night. One of them was right. 🇮🇹 Venezia 0-2 Inter Called. Inter 50.8%, the strongest single probability on the board, and they won. 🇮🇹 Milan 2-4 Bologna Milan were 51.0%, the highest home probability of the night. They lost at home to an attack Tactica rated 49, the second weakest playing anywhere yesterday. Mbangula scored three. 🇮🇹 Genoa 2-0 Juventus Genoa were 34.6%. They won inside 28 minutes. Juventus finished with more expected goals, 1.28 to 0.97, and scored none. 🇮🇹 Monza 1-4 Napoli Monza were 45.6% and ahead of Napoli in the model. They lost by three. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Bournemouth 3-0 Aston Villa Villa were 44.8%, Bournemouth 41.7%. Bournemouth made eight changes and won by three. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Man City 2-2 Brighton Both finished level. In both, the draw was the outcome Tactica rated least likely, 15.3% and 13.5%. One from seven. Four days after two from two on Manchester United and the Clásico. Two things went wrong, and they are worth naming rather than quietly deleting. The first is the draw. Tactica calculates each side's win probability independently and leaves the draw as whatever is left over, which means it is structurally the smallest number on almost every card. In two cup ties where both managers changed their team, that is exactly the outcome that was most likely, and the model had it rated last in both. That is not bad luck. That is a flaw in how the number is built. The second is who actually played. The ratings describe each club's first-choice eleven over its last ten matches. In a cup round where Bournemouth made eight changes, Aston Villa made nine, and Milan rested Pulisic and Modric for the derby, the ratings were describing teams that did not take the field. Bologna rated 49 in attack and scored four at San Siro. The number was not wrong about Bologna. It was wrong about which Milan it was facing. What the model does not do is change after the fact. Those seven numbers were frozen before kickoff, and they are still sitting in the database exactly as published, including the six that missed. That is the entire point of freezing them. app.tacticaengine.com

Xabi Alonso returns to Anfield, this time as Chelsea manager. Andoni Iraola picks a Liverpool side four days before Arsenal come to the same ground. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Liverpool vs Chelsea 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 21:00 WAT · EFL Cup · Fourth Round · Anfield Tactica win probability Liverpool 43.1% · Draw 15.3% · Chelsea 41.6% ATK/DEF: Liverpool 78/53 · Chelsea 76/47 Two attacks the model can barely separate, 78 against 76, and two defenses that are the real story. Chelsea's 47 is the weakest rating in either English Cup tie tonight. Liverpool's 53 is better only in the sense that it is a bigger number. Neither of these teams has been difficult to score against, and both are about to field sides built from whoever is left. That is what makes the ratings misleading here and worth saying plainly. They describe the squads that played the league games, not the eleven that will walk out tonight. Both managers are expected to rotate heavily, with Liverpool leaning on the younger players and Chelsea resting the spine. A backline already rated in the forties and fifties does not usually improve when you change most of it. The fixtures behind this one explain everything. Chelsea plays Manchester United at 12:30 on Saturday. Liverpool hosts Arsenal on Sunday afternoon. Neither manager can afford to treat a cup tie in late October as the priority, and the team sheet at 20:00 will tell you more about how they rate those two games than anything either says in a press conference. app.tacticaengine.com

Fabian Hürzeler brings the best defence in tonight's football to the Etihad. Enzo Maresca has to beat the same team twice in four days. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Man City vs Brighton 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 20:30 WAT · EFL Cup · Fourth Round · Etihad Tactica win probability Brighton 46.9% · Draw 13.5% · Man City 39.6% ATK/DEF: Man City 80/56 · Brighton 78/79 Brighton's 79 at the back is the highest defensive rating on tonight's entire board, across both competitions. Inter are at 56. City are at 56. Nobody else is close. Pair that with an attack of 78, a point off City's 80, and you have the only side here the model rates as complete, which is why the away team is ahead at the Etihad. City's problem is not the 80. It is what sits behind it. A 56 defense against an attack rated 78 is the same shape of mismatch that has decided most of the fixtures Tactica has called correctly this month, and Maresca is carrying it into a tie; he cannot rest players for in the usual way. Because here is the part nobody else will mention. These two meet again on Saturday afternoon, same ground, in the league. Rotation normally means saving legs for a different opponent. Tonight it means something stranger: whatever either manager shows now, the other has three days to study before doing it again. The cup tie is the dress rehearsal and the scouting report at the same time. app.tacticaengine.com

Rúben Amorim picks a Milan side three days before the derby. Domenico Tedesco brings a Bologna attack rated 49. 🇮🇹 Milan vs Bologna 🇮🇹 18:30 WAT · Serie A · Matchday 9 · San Siro Tactica win probability Milan 51.0% · Draw 17.7% · Bologna 31.3% ATK/DEF: Milan 69/66 · Bologna 49/60 51.0% is the highest home probability on the board tonight, and the reason is at the other end rather than Milan's. Bologna's attack rates 49. Only Venezia at 42 and Genoa at 45 are worse across the matches being played, and both of those are away to Inter and Juventus, respectively. Tedesco's side are not built to hurt anyone at San Siro right now. Milan's own numbers are less commanding than the probability suggests. An attack of 69 is mid-table among tonight's sides, and a defense of 66 is solid without being Brighton. This is a favorite by comparison, not by dominance, and the 17.7% draw figure is the highest on the board for a reason. What makes it interesting is the calendar. Inter come to San Siro on Saturday evening for the derby, and Inter spend tonight at Venezia against the weakest side playing anywhere. Both Milan clubs get a soft midweek before the biggest match of their season so far. Which of them uses it to rest and which uses it to build rhythm is the thing to watch, and the team sheets land within minutes of each other. app.tacticaengine.com

Xabi Alonso goes back to Anfield as Chelsea manager. Enzo Maresca faces Brighton tonight and again on Saturday. Andoni Iraola picks a Liverpool side four days before Arsenal. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EFL Cup fourth round · 🇮🇹 Serie A matchday 9 Wednesday, 28 October, 2026 Liverpool v Chelsea · 21:00 WAT Liverpool 43.1% · Draw 15.3% · Chelsea 41.6% ATK/DEF: 78/53 v 76/47 Man City v Brighton · 20:30 WAT Man City 39.6% · Draw 13.5% · Brighton 46.9% ATK/DEF: 80/56 v 78/79 Bournemouth v Aston Villa · 20:45 WAT Bournemouth 41.7% · Draw 13.5% · Aston Villa 44.8% ATK/DEF: 76/68 v 79/71 Venezia v Inter · 18:30 WAT Venezia 35.8% · Draw 13.4% · Inter 50.8% ATK/DEF: 42/42 v 78/56 Milan v Bologna · 18:30 WAT Milan 51.0% · Draw 17.7% · Bologna 31.3% ATK/DEF: 69/66 v 49/60 Genoa v Juventus · 20:45 WAT Genoa 34.6% · Draw 15.8% · Juventus 49.6% ATK/DEF: 45/60 v 66/63 Monza v Napoli · 20:45 WAT Monza 45.6% · Draw 13.8% · Napoli 40.6% ATK/DEF: 72/45 v 68/46 The number that stands out tonight is Brighton's 79 at the back. That is the strongest defensive rating on this entire board, better than Inter at 56 and better than anything England has on show, and it is why the model has the away side ahead at the Etihad despite City carrying an attack rated 80. Hürzeler's team are the one side here whose structure the ratings genuinely rate, and they get to test it against the same opponent twice in four days. City and Brighton meet again on Saturday afternoon at the Etihad in the league. Neither manager is preparing for a different team. That changes what a rotation decision even means tonight. The Serie A pattern is cleaner still. Inter, Milan, Juventus, and Napoli are all in action, and on Saturday and Sunday they play each other. Milan hosts Inter in the derby, Juventus host Napoli the day after. So tonight's selections from Amorim, Chivu, Spalletti, and Allegri are being made with one eye on a fixture three days away, and the sides that come out strongest tonight are the ones telling you they feel safest about the weekend. Watch Monza in particular. The model has them ahead of Napoli at 45.6%, on an attack rating of 72 against a Napoli defense of 46, and Allegri has Juventus waiting on Sunday. For the two English ties, the ratings are already pointing at the weakness. Chelsea's 47 at the back is the lowest number in either competition tonight, and Liverpool's 53 is not far clear of it. Both of those sides have a serious Saturday or Sunday ahead, Chelsea against Manchester United at lunchtime and Liverpool against Arsenal, and both are expected to rotate heavily. A defense already rated in the forties does not usually get sturdier when you change four of the back five. None of these are league points. What they are is information, and by tomorrow morning the team sheets will have told you more about the weekend than any preview will. app.tacticaengine.com

🏆 BALLON D'OR 2026 WINNER: HARRY KANE From one of the world's best goalscorers to officially the best player on the planet. ⚽ 61 goals Year after year, Harry Kane proved that excellence isn't a moment, it's a habit. The golden boot. The trophies. Now the Ballon d'Or. A legendary career reaches another historic milestone. 👑

The Spaniards have taken all 6 awards presented tonight. España domina el menudo del fútbol. Will they get their hands on the ultimate award of the night?

Mbappé scored twice at Camp Nou and Mourinho did the knee slide. Evanilson finished from 35 yards at Old Trafford. Two away wins, and Tactica had the away side ahead in both before kickoff. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Manchester United 0-3 Bournemouth 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · Old Trafford Rayan 38' · Tavernier 43' · Evanilson 71' Pre-match: Bournemouth 49.7% · Draw 13.8% · Man Utd 36.5% · ATK/DEF 56/47 v 71/63 🇪🇸 Barcelona 1-2 Real Madrid 🇪🇸 La Liga · Spotify Camp Nou Mbappé 41', 87' · Raphinha 61' Pre-match: Real Madrid 45.9% · Draw 12.8% · Barcelona 41.3% · ATK/DEF 80/52 v 80/60 The pattern across both is the same one, and it is not about the away teams at all. In each fixture the home side carried the weaker defensive rating, and in each the result turned on exactly that. United at 47 conceded three and could have conceded five. Barcelona at 52 held for an hour after Raphinha equalised, then lost the game in the 87th minute when Bellingham turned in midfield and Camavinga reached the byline. The attacks were never the problem for either home team. United had 62.5% of the ball. Barcelona had Yamal hitting the post and forcing blocks all evening. What that says about the ratings is worth sitting with. A high attack number tells you a side can hurt someone. A low defence number tells you how long they can hold what the attack earns them, and that is the one that decides matches. Barcelona rate 80 going forward, identical to Madrid, and still lost at home while top of La Liga. The gap was never in the final third. Context neither club will enjoy tonight. Carrick needed a performance at Old Trafford and the home crowd finished the afternoon singing about the people above him. Barcelona sit on 27 points from nine wins and have now lost twice in a week, both times to sides their defensive rating said could get at them. Two different leagues, same lesson.

Thibaut Courtois is out with illness. Vinícius Júnior is suspended, Rodrygo is injured, and Andriy Lunin starts a Clásico in goal. 🇪🇸 Barcelona vs Real Madrid 🇪🇸 9PM WAT · La Liga · Gameweek 10 · Spotify Camp Nou Tactica win probability Real Madrid 45.9% · Draw 12.8% · Barcelona 41.3% ATK/DEF: Barcelona 80/52 · Real Madrid 80/60 Both attacks rate 80. Exactly level, Yamal and Raphinha against Mbappé and Bellingham, and the model cannot separate them by a single point. The whole gap in this Clásico sits at the other end, where Barcelona are rated 52 and Madrid 60. That eight-point difference is the only reason Madrid are favored away from home. Which is now the interesting part, because the team with the better defensive rating has just lost its goalkeeper. Lunin comes in for Courtois, Valverde plays right back, and Konaté and Huijsen are the center-back pairing. Madrid's 60 was the stronger number on paper, and it is being asked a question before anyone has kicked a ball. Barcelona's 52 has been exposed for weeks, and the absences land exactly on it. Christensen, Eric García, and Koundé are all out, which leaves Cubarsí and Martín in the middle with Cancelo and Espart on either side. A side top of La Liga on 27 points from nine wins is walking into the biggest fixture of its season with its weakest department picked from what is left. Madrid's reshaped front line is the counterweight. No Vinícius and no Rodrygo means no natural width or running in behind, so Güler starts right, Diomande left, and far more of the attack funnels through Mbappé centrally with Bellingham behind him. Barcelona's defensive number says the room is there. Whether Madrid can still find it without their two quickest outlets is what the next ninety minutes decides.

Evanilson from 35 yards on the angle. Tavernier after a Yoro slip. Rayan to start it. Bruno Fernandes watched all three from the bench. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Manchester United 0-3 Bournemouth 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Full Time · Premier League · Gameweek 8 · Old Trafford Rayan 38' Marcus Tavernier 43' Evanilson 71' Tactica before kickoff had Bournemouth 49.7%, Draw 13.8%, and Man United 36.5%; with attack and defense at 56/47 for United and 71/63 for Bournemouth. The away side was the pick. The scoreline was the kinder version of it. Start with that attack rating of 56, because United's afternoon is the clearest illustration of it anyone will see this season. They finished with 62.5% of the ball, 618 attempted passes at 82.8% accuracy, and 16 shots. All of that produced 1.00 expected goals, and only 0.33 once you measure what actually reached the target. Bournemouth had 37.5% of the ball, took six fewer shots, and generated 2.18 xG with 2.78 on target. One side controlled the game. The other side played it. The 47 at the back was the weakest number in the fixture, and it broke in all three ways you would expect. A slip from Yoro for the second, a goalkeeper caught outside his area for the third, and seven blocks and thirty clearances at the other end showing how differently Bournemouth defended their own box. Marco Rose's team also missed three big chances. Gary Neville said it should have been five, and the numbers agree with him rather than with the scoreboard. The part the model could not price was the team sheet. Carrick dropped Fernandes after his captain questioned the tactics publicly following Como, then left him on the bench for ninety minutes while Zirkzee and Lacey came on instead. United were already rated 36.5% with Fernandes in the calculation. They played without him, and the supporters spent the closing stages singing about the people above the manager rather than the manager himself. Full numbers on every match: app.tacticaengine.com

Bruno Fernandes has been dropped. Matheus Cunha too. Michael Carrick has picked the team that may decide whether he keeps his job. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Manchester United vs Bournemouth 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 3PM WAT · Premier League · Gameweek 8 · Old Trafford Tactica win probability Bournemouth 49.7% · Draw 13.8% · Man United 36.5% ATK/DEF: Man United 56/47 · Bournemouth 71/63 Worth being clear about what those numbers describe, because they were calculated with Fernandes in the side. An attack rated 56 is already a side that struggles to manufacture chances. Carrick has now removed its captain and main creator, days after Fernandes publicly questioned his tactics following the 4-1 defeat at Como. Mason Mount and Amad come in, Tielemans and Baleba sit behind them, and Mbeumo carries the front line on four goals in seven league games. Bournemouth bring an attack rated 71. Fifteen points of separation, and they are the away side. Marco Rose's team beat Milan 3-0 in the Europa League on Thursday, so they arrive with less rest but considerably more rhythm, and they have not lost to United in their last six league meetings. United's 47 at the back is the weakest rating in this fixture, and it has not been fixed by anything in the last two months. The interesting part is that the market disagrees. United are the favorites with the bookmakers. Tactica is not, and the reason sits entirely in that 47. A defense rated there does not need to be dismantled; it needs one clean sequence, and Bournemouth have the output to produce several. Carrick's answer to that has been to take out the player most likely to keep the ball away from it.

Jérémy Doku sits at just 1.2% ownership ahead of Manchester City hosting Ipswich Town at the Etihad. With the GW7 deadline locking tomorrow at 11:00 AM WAT, template squads are heavily concentrated in the same five midfielders. If you need to make up ground without ripping up your structure, four sub-10% differentials stand out on the underlying data and Tactica's fixture models this week: 1. Jérémy Doku (Man City · £7.4m MID · 1.2% TSB) Coming off at halftime against PSG in midweek leaves Doku with fresh legs for Saturday's home tie against Ipswich. In his last domestic outing following his injury return, he posted a goal and an assist in just 34 minutes on 1.26 xGI. With Ipswich conceding high-volume box entries away from home, Doku gives you direct exposure to the highest-projected attack of the week at practically zero effective ownership. 2. Matheus Cunha (Man United · 81.6 Rating · 6.5% TSB) While 33.9% of the game owns Bruno Fernandes and nearly 20% hold Bryan Mbeumo, Cunha is flying completely under the radar at 6.5% ownership heading into a plum three-game run against Leeds (A), Bournemouth (H), and a leaky Chelsea backline (A). Tactica’s projection model has Cunha at 13.4 points across the next three gameweeks, just 0.1 behind Mbeumo, at a fraction of the ownership. 3. Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth · £6.1m MID · 7.3% TSB) Bournemouth welcome a Sunderland side on Sunday that just played a grueling Thursday night Europa League tie in Portugal with a depleted backline. Tavernier offers two distinct routes to points: set-piece and open-play attacking returns paired with 47 defensive contributions (DefCon) and eight bonus points already banked this season. 4. Luka Vušković (Brighton · £5.1m DEF · 4.7% TSB) Brighton lead the league in clean sheets (4) and have conceded the joint-fewest goals (5) through six weeks. Vušković isn't just a clean-sheet play against a Crystal Palace side traveling back from Lyon; he has hit the defensive contribution threshold in three of his last four starts while recording 10 shots (8 inside the box) and 3 big chances at the other end. Full FPL Scout & Fixture Ticker: app.tactica.com.ng/fpl

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 AFC Bournemouth vs 🇦🇹 Sturm Graz, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 8:00pm WAT Tactica: Bournemouth 45.4% (62 ATK / 48 DEF) · Draw 13.2% · Sturm Graz 41.4% (42 ATK / 63 DEF) European football comes to the Vitality Stadium for the first time in Bournemouth’s history tonight, and the numbers point to a clash of complete opposites. Bournemouth carry a 62 ATK rating that sits 20 points higher than Sturm Graz’s slate-low 42 ATK, yet Bournemouth’s 48 DEF rating is the single lowest defensive figure on tonight’s board. That defensive vulnerability was exposed in full during Saturday’s 5-1 defeat at Chelsea, and Marco Rose is still dealing with a packed treatment room: Alex Scott, Julián Araújo, Eli Junior Kroupi, and Justin Kluivert remain out until November, while Amine Adli and Veljko Milosavljević face late fitness checks ahead of Sunday’s Premier League visit from Sunderland. What keeps Bournemouth favored at 45.4%—despite rotating the squad with Lewis Cook returning in midfield and David Brooks back in training—is that Sturm Graz arrive in an even deeper attacking crisis. Sturm are missing six first-team regulars, including playmaker Otar Kiteishvili and forwards Seedy Jatta and Nelson Weiper, forcing them to register 19-year-old Axel Kayombo late just to support lone striker Ousmane Diakité. Sturm held Rennes to a 0-0 draw on Matchday 1 and beat Rapid Wien 1-0 at the weekend, which backs up their solid 63 DEF rating. Still, with the lowest draw probability on the card at 13.2%, Tactica expects someone to break through, and Bournemouth’s 20-point attacking edge at home is the clearest separator on the pitch. Full ratings: app.tactica.com.ng