Talking Cards with Grand Salami & The Jewce

Bert Ryan of @GrandSalamiSC had roughly $70K tied up in 2022 Finest Flashbacks. He knew the checklist, understood the sourcing, and had customers who wanted the product. I love hearing an operator explain the work behind a decision. Bert takes us through his on Hobby Jobs.

2026 Allen & Ginter X Deep Dive Quite an action-packed day in Topps land. Even after THREE back-to-back free loan queues (AKA pre-orders), they still somehow found the time to drop a tiny odds sheet for a tiny little product. To me, this one is probably more interesting than it should be. Allen & Ginter X will be a super limited product with not much going on as far as odds, but there will definitely be some sneaky low print runs in here as a result. If you read my content, you probably know how much I love my sneaky low print runs. Welcome to the often overlooked Allen & Ginter X. Part 1: The Basics Allen & Ginter X, not to be confused with Allen & Ginter, is set to launch next Wednesday, November 11. No pre-order period on this one...it's just going straight to release day. Allen & Ginter X could very accurately be called Allen & Ginter Black as it's simply a darker version of the base set. Despite the similarities, there is very little overlap in the checklists. The only cards from regular A&G that you should be able to pull in A&G X are the Inserts & Rookie Design Variations. Everything else is exclusive to the X format. Each box consists of 18 packs of 8 cards. Though we don't yet know pricing, last year's was $180/box at release, which was considerably higher than regular A&G. I would expect nothing different from this year. 2026 A&G dropped at $160/box, so I would expect A&G X to drop around $200/box, possibly slightly higher. Part 2: Production Numbers Total cards in the product: 1,795,200 2025 A&G X- 1,009,152 YOY- +77.9% On the surface, a nearly 80% increase in production over 2025 looks daunting. But the production run on this product, even after an 80% increase is still quite limited. Total Boxes Produced: 12,467 (1,039 cases) 2025 A&G X- 7,008 boxes (584 cases) At ~1k cases, production is similar to that of an average Sapphire release. OK, production is up. Ho hum. So are 98% of other products this year. But we're not even to the fun stuff yet. Here's what those nearly 1.8m cards consist of and how that compares to last year: 2026 Total Inserts- 164,560 2025 Total Inserts- 150,584 YOY- +9.3% Keep in mind, there are no inserts that I would call desirable in A&G X. They are some of the exact same inserts found in regular A&G. And there are none that would be mistaken for "rare". 2026 Total Parallels- 241,156 2025 Total Parallels- 148,503 YOY- +62.4% A vast majority (over 224K) of the parallels in 2026 A&G X are the Mini Blacks that fall 1 per pack. This is no different than last year, except with the extra production and shortened checklist of 300 as opposed to 350, the print run of these more than doubled. Like 2025, there are no Relics in A&G X. But if you know me, you know I like to bury the lead... 2026 Total Autos- 25,059 2025 Total Autos- 9,669 YOY- +159% To me, this is the most fascinating number in the entire breakdown. Total production increased ~80%. That is true. But Total Autos essentially 2.5xed. Let me detail what this means. Topps states 1 auto per box of A&G X. Based on the odds they gave us, there are over 25k Autos in a <12.5k box product. Meaning the average autos per box should be right at 2. Does this mean 2 autos are guaranteed? Not at all. Could odds still be off? Absolutely. But within the odds, there is nothing that stands out as being a mistake. Usually, when that's the case, I can tell, and adjust accordingly. It would not surprise me in the least to see 2-3 autos being pulled regularly from boxes of A&G X. This is nothing new for X. Last year, there were also a considerable number of extra autos in the product. But average autos per box calculated to 1.4, still quite a ways off from 2 per box. With extra autos comes extra auto signers. This year, just like we saw in regular A&G, the baseball auto checklist checks in at an absurd 177 players, up from 148 last year. Non-baseball auto subjects are up slightly to 59 signers from 52 last year. Fortunately, there are a ton of big baseball names, both active and retired. Though I can't co-sign for the impressiveness of the non-baseball signers as that's not really my jam. Part 3: Heat Map Expected Hit Rate Per Box: Autos- ~2 Parallels- 19.3 (Including 18 Mini Black Parallels per Box. Technically, I suppose every single black base card could be considered a parallel since they are alternate versions of regular A&G base. But for our purposes, I'm not counting them as such.) Inserts- 13.2 Numbered cards- 1 per 6.9 boxes (Though this sounds abysmal, keep in mind, aside from Autos, the only numbered cards possible in the product are Mini Reds /5 and Mini Silvers /1. At this point, I'm not sure if Mini Chromes are numbered. Last year, they were unnumbered with a print run of ~10 copies. This year, it's possible they could be /25. If that's the case, then numbered will fall every 2.9 boxes on average. Regardless, if you pull a numbered card, you're hitting something legitimately scarce. There is no /199 nonsense in A&G X. Part 4: A Squatch Record In more important news, we have a new leader in the clubhouse for longest official parallel name that I've ever encountered: MINI NON BASEBALL AUTOGRAPH CARDS FRAMED MINI SIZE SILVER FRAME BLACK GOLD INK PARALLEL Yes, all that is the actual name. What it surpasses, I can't say I remember. But I assure you its name wasn't as long as that monstrosity. Part 5 would normally be a Value Map detailing all the "$ Per" Metrics. Since pricing is still a mystery, I'll have to add that next week when Topps drops the price. However, there is one thing I want to highlight that should indicate how good or bad this release is. And it has to do with my favorite metric- Quality Hits. This includes any parallel or insert /100 or less, any case hit or rarer insert, and any Auto /100 or less. The numbers say you should see ~2.35 Quality Hits Per Box. On average, two of these should be autos...and ALL the autos are scarce. Assuming drop price is $200/box, then the $ Per Quality Hit would be $85.11. Even at $220/box, that comes out to $93.62. This is EXCELLENT for a baseball product. And better than Update Jumbos at drop price, which previously held the best $ Per Quality Hit of any Baseball format this year at $102.90. But there is one caveat. If there happen to be some shenanigans with the odds, and we're not actually seeing boxes commonly produce 2 autos, then this will be a moot point and deflate the product immensely. So it's a bit of a leap of faith at this point. Do we trust the odds...or not? Topps has pleasantly surprised us before. They've also profoundly disappointed us on more than one occasion. My guess? We're good to go. But I've been accused of over-trusting the odds on occasion. So take that with a grain of salt. Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do? First, let me be clear...I'm not a fan of typical Allen & Ginter. I probably made that abundantly clear in my A&G breakdown, but it bears repeating here. Not to alienate any followers, because I know there are some A&G purists out there who embrace all the oddities. They are just not for me. I like cards of things I like. I don't need cards of instruments and how to say hello in 50 languages. But it's fine if you do. Now, I'm not a complete curmudgeon. A&G has had some wickedly cool stuff and wild offerings over the years. From Dinosaur Fossils, DNA & teeth, to 1/1 Hair Relics, Topps has done things with A&G that you won't find in any other set. And I applaud them for it. I think the Daguerrotype Autos are phenomenal and would love to have one. But unfortunately, none of that wicked cool stuff is in here. But I'm still buying at drop and here's why: 1) Despite the production increase, it's still very limited. 2) Black cards are way cooler than white. 3) Sneaky low print runs. But most of all, I really hope these odds hold up. Because 2 Autos on average in a box that only claims one is about all it takes for me to recommend a product. Assuming it starts at ~$200, I think there's an excellent chance this product goes up a fair amount. 2025 Ginter X currently sits at $300/box at Big Bully resellers. And this year is better than last and should be at least that much, making it a safe stash play, not to mention a pretty fun rip. @Topps, Let's try to make a habit of this under-promise and over-deliver thing. It's much more becoming than some of the shenanigans you've been up to lately. Part 7: Print Runs Base A&G X Production: ~4,550 ea Unnumbered Parallels: Ginter X Chrome Parallel- ~125 ea Mini Black Parallel- ~750 ea Mini Ginter X Chrome- ~25 ea Unnumbered Inserts: These are also in the regular A&G release, so first I'll list how many additional copies are added by A&G X, then how many total copies of each parallel there are. 50 Ways to Say Hello (50 card CL)- ~320 -----> Total ~11,695 ea Musical Methods (20 card CL)- ~320 ------> Total ~11,695 ea N34 (50 card CL)- ~320 ------> Total ~11,695 ea N43 (20 card CL)- ~2,245 -----> Total ~94,125 ea Rookie Design Variations (20 card CL)- ~320 ----> Total ~11,695 ea Wicked Power (30 card CL)- ~2,495 ----> Total ~95,500 ea Autos: Please note: I fully believe every auto will be numbered. However, I also believe the serial numbers will vary, even among the same parallel. What I am listing will be the average print run of each parallel. So, when you see a Caglianone /15, when I have the PR listed at ~32, that is why. These are not precise, but should give you an idea as to general scarcity of each variation. Baseball Mini Silver Frame Black Parallel (177 card CL)- ~55 ea Baseball Mini Black Frame Black Parallel- ~32 ea Baseball Mini Silver Frame Black Gold Ink- ~10 ea Non-Baseball Mini Silver Frame Black Parallel (59 card CL)- ~85 ea Non-Baseball Mini Black Frame Black Parallel- ~45 ea Non-Baseball Mini Silver Frame Black Gold Ink- ~10 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026AllenGinterX