Tatsuki

The top is not in. The market is not over. Anyone who is parroting this does not understand the macro and global liquidity situation. We have been in a deep liquidity constricting environment for years, and Crypto has not pushed overall because it is a vehicle of that liquidty we have not had. BTC has pushed on institutional adoption and global acceptance. Stocks are only pushing because of AI. GOLD has been pushing because of financial and trade uncertainty. There has not been an overall bull market. It is only BTC and a select few others, and the exact same in the stock market. Most stocks, like most crypto, are under-performing... And that is because of how the macro has been for years. BUT that is literally about to change, and we are leaving the liquidity constricting phase and re-entering expansion. Let me explain guys. - TGA is at $1tn(the highest in 4 years). As soon as the US Gov reopens a lot of this will be emptied into the reserves, increasing liquidity and lending, pushing M2 about $1tn, adding large fuel for risk assets. If we were entering a bear market this would be bottoming out, not peaking. - ON RRP is at near zero The Overnight Reverse Repo is at near zero which shows us that all money is parked in private markets. If we were entering a bear market and a liquidity constricting environment this would be accelerating aggressively, just like it did in 2021/22, as Money market funds stop fucking with treasuries and seek safe haven from liquidity constriction. - QT is ending The FED has been reducing their balance sheet for 4 years, from $9tn to $6.5tn, reducing liquidity and stifling lending, which fucks growth entirely. December 1st this stops and liquidity begins to enter expansion again. $25bn/mo stops falling off the balace sheet/reserves. If we were entering a bear marker this would not be happening. - Interest rates are coming down Interest rates coming down makes lending cheaper, promotes business and growth and increases liquidity in risk markets. If we were entering a bear market, rates would not be coming down alongside all these other factors. - China and Japan stimulating China have been stimulating all year, and Japan have announced a further $93bn fiscal package and are keeping interest rates at 0.50%. This Yen stimulus enables the Yen carry trade to continue which creates a risk on environment, funelling capital straight into riskier assets. You CANNOT compare this current market to 2021 in any way shape or form it is worlds apart. You cannot compare it to 2019 either... the financial landscape was in crisis then and the FED stopped QT because liquidity was getting so low SOFR rates were hitting 10% and the system was cracking. Right now the financial situation is controlled and easing, and the liquidity is about to flow in a big way. We literally have a super cocktail of liquidity on the very near horizon, better than anything we have had in years. The markets are not going to enter a bear market just as they are about to receive huge liquidity injections. It's impossible. And this is all happening whilst BTC is about to hit its 1W 50SMA and everyone is capitulating. Coincidence? No. Understand where we are, understand the macro, and understand how this game works. You are being shaken out on the eve of liquidity xmas and no one is looking at it properly. The ONLY thing that matters for Crypto is liquidity, and we have been in a liquidity starved environment for years. This is why Alts have suffered so greatly... they are the highest risk asset in the world, and need positive liquidity to run. This cycle has played out longer because this process has ben delayed and the FED have held rates too high for too long... But it has to change, and it is about to change. Don't fuck it up here.