Tawn (@TawnFin) header
Tawn (@TawnFin) profile picture

Cycle trader, Crypto / Alt investments. Econ @Columbia To everything there is a season.

Joined March 2026
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Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.
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November 17th.
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People who bought zcash:native after it sat on lower lows for 3 years are the dumbest rich people alive
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Clarity act wont pass
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NFT's are NOT some golden ticket leveraged play on a given altcoin. Whatever you do, do not buy a Hypurr or Pudgy Penguin expecting the valuations on not only the coin, but also the NFT to align at YOUR point of sale. You're asking for liquidity problems.
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Sentiment check
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I dont even have to check the timeline to know everyones probably celebrating the start of the bull market. This is the type of sentiment we need for a real low to come in. Beautiful development.
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The financial enlightenment of individuals to have their "money work for them" is leading to the eventual and likely soon-coming stagnation of the stock market for what will be a decade long drought. Why is "Just buy S&P" abruptly the general consensus among everyday people?
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They want the little that you have left to be the fuel to their monopoly. "For whoever has will be given more, and they will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken from them."
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The fact that so many non-beneficiaries of personal financial enlightenment are funding the "awakening" on social media, really convicts me that we're going to have a lost decade. "Just DCA da S&P". I'm good bro.
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I was at my friends house in Hollywood and realized while I was waiting for my Uber he lives right down the street from ricegums old house😭 14 year old me would've been gassed
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😭😭😭😭😭 Expect lower lows
Lacy revealed he recently sold all his personal assets to put EVERY dollar of his name into Bitcoin, claiming he knows something people don't 😳 "I actually put all my money every dollar I have and put it into Bitcoin, I'm telling yall right now I know things"
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Its hilarious to see even "cycle" accounts drifting from the idea of rigid 4 year cycles. If the 4 year cycle invalidates, im putting some money in ETH and never coming back. But it won't, you're just getting bored from the lack of action. Sideways hell sentiment.
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Im not saying ETH could flip bitcoin if quantum ends up becoming materially dominant Buuuutttt
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Reading debates by your typical normies in instagram comment sections is very conflicting. The common man has 0 imperical thinking skills or creative thought. At the same time that they're your competition, they're also a drain on any complex idea that could be productive.
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If you aren't smart enough to think creatively and come up with ideas that become vindicated, find someone who does. Its better to be a stupid successful person with humility, than a prideful "smart" guy whos wrong about everything.
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Happy mothers day.
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(1/3) A common rebuttal to the 4 year cycle I hear is "once everyone knows about cycle's they don't work". Lest we even begin to quantify how much of the market actually, knows, and lives to play for the cycles with 0 flaw.
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(2/3) Even aside from the quantitative issues, this idea wouldn't meaningfully change cycles, only how people fell into them.
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Biggest fumble of my life was not getting in on metals some 2 years ago I was so unbelievably convicted and yet I just didn't pull the trigger for one reason or another With that though, I learnt I'm better off at least dipping my toe in everything I'm convicted in
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Maybe one of the best alternative investments of the coming 5 years is the 15' Vox Holo. The Vox Holo is already emerging as the main running alternative to desirable Kato 14 Holo's as they become obsolete, barring the Hell Raisers Holo (for now). As every other class is killed by fundamental supply changes and controlled valuations, what will the next store of value be? If knives and gloves are being killed by terminals and trade-ups, and play skins are facing far too much inflow and competition in modern supply to make gains based on fundamentals, then where is the wind blowing?
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(1/2) This Iran war will very likely be a forever war, until some kind of nation building or surrender takes place. Short term resolve may come and go as it already has, but long term they are far too objectively wedged against each other. Iran simply wont, and can't win.
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(2/2) Temporary resolve even could be as long as an entire democratic term, come 2028 if Israel's objectives aren't achieved. Until Israel achieves their objectives, Iran will always be in at the very least, a state of conflict with war impending.
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I repeatedly see the sentiment that Alt's are in some way out of order, or are lagging Bitcoin to a magnitude never before imaginable. Let's not get too deep in the weeds over it. Alt's don't move the market, and their performance is conditional.
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