that1618guy

Memecoins and shitcoins dumping because of midterm election results. highly sophisticated traders indeed Credit where credit is due I guess

If you haven’t already, I spent some time breaking down why I’m interested in these 4 protocols building on RH chain in the below thread $priors / $raeto / $orbio / $bun the speed of teams shipping and their ability to pivot and adapt to what the market demands is next level

~17 more days in this Cooperation regime until my $BTC GT model main alloc triggers (Cooperation regimes are marked by holders coordinating together to choose delayed payment over instant gratification, this is game theory mechanics) Chart 1: current C regime path is underperforming the mean by 6%, but so far it’s still within 1SD. Looking for a mean reversion over the coming 2 weeks esp if we can remain in C. As current CPS is low, it won’t take much for a regime flip which is not what the bulls will want to see. More on CPS below Chart 2: tbh not surprised with the lackluster returns in this current regime as CPS (Composite Patience Score) for this current C regime started off very low and is still grinding out we want to see higher CPS as this measures patience for the BTC market, higher patience = C regime persisting for longer, and longer C regime persists = the more returns over time. This model rewards allocation in strong, durable C regimes and together with CPS, helps to build that case fwiw this model uses a participant behavior lens and game theory to analyze BTC

Today on MCG @Stateofblocks w/@that1618guy Highlights :n ex Delphi analyst and founder of State of Blocks, a trading community that shares setups and research. Highlights Include: 00:58 - Marcus's Background 03:24 - Relative strength is only relative until the fall catches up 07:03 - @AnthropicAI IPO could drain liquidity like @SpaceX 10:10 - Add risk early and cut risk late 11:21 - Crypto has no passive bid so the marginal buyer rules 11:54 - Calls the Bitcoin low in at $60K 14:21 - $NEAR at $1.80 vs $4 and fundamentals follow price 16:36 - Bitcoin Google searches explain price 18:13 - HYPE at $70 with everyone talking was the warning 20:16 - What gets retail back into crypto? 25:23 - Binance hack of $6B with half frozen 26:00 - Real test is the bank run 28:36 - Bybit handled its hack like a masterclass 31:04 - Bids $HYPE and @Lighter_xyz as the marginal buyer returns 32:50 - Bullish Robinhood Chain after 70-80% pullbacks 33:14 - The trench special bids at a 78% pullback 33:34 - Likes $ORBIO for real revenue 35:05 - Priors dev call at a $2M market cap 43:19 - $700K rewards post was an overreaction 48:36 - Too many copy paste launchpads 49:18 - $BUN is different with AI market making 54:13 - Four agentic finance picks 57:19 - Loves $HOOKR and $STONKBROKER 1:00:06 - HYPE attention and why Kinetic is the beta play 1:03:03 - State of Blocks Discord

Quite frankly I think what we're seeing with software hacks and this AirBnB stuff is just the simple societal rule that every rule in society exists because of the bottom quintile A small percentage of bad actors use AI much faster than good actors can catch up - and now airlines, fridges, electronics, databases and god knows how many old companies w outdated infra are just getting hacked I feel like we're witnessing the collapse of software from a cultural perspective. I don't know about software stocks, but I can feel that people at the fringes just hate using software The solution isn't "use AI to fight the AI hacks" because that doesn't take into account the fabric of human nature - the solution that people will opt for is instead a mass exodus out of software Unironically the only thing AI might have killed is the very thing that built it. We're basically reverting back to 2010s era type of stuff - IRL meetups, only booking hotels, etc. I think the conclusion of "oh but better software will be built" is just not intuitive because there are just a myriad of vectors beyond traditional software - like look at Binance social engineering hack. It was, at the end of the day, not a cyber-hack but a social engineering that could have only been done at scale using AI - imagine just some guy deploying 100 agents of a female and it's just a numbers game before one gets hit It is what it is.

ok here's why I am looking at these 4 tokens for RH S2, full disclosure i hold these so NFA robinhood:0xedbf91223639800bcd5756815caf908df3b890be - team is actually stacked, dev won multiple hackathons before and knows what/how to build. protocol is trying to solve an actual problem in the agenticFi space for credit worthiness by acting as the on chain credit bureau. shipped MANY products including 10 new ERC standards (in draft review now) that borrow/lenders can use to build on top of. team is thinking further ahead on interoperability which gives me the confidence to know that they are building for the long term - why else would they bother to submit these ERCs if not? team is also cooking up some hooks w uni tech atm too so i dont think they're anywhere done. will be watching this one closely covered the protocol in more depth here: teapawt.net/that1618guy/status/211… robinhood:0x72be1277e198d0c476869253cb4e62807e14533c - another team shipping non stop and working with RH crypto projects to get them discounted access to inference, with many more in the pipeline. the team started off w an idea to offer inference via stock staking yields but now building alot more on auto routing and inference access. team clearly knows who their target customers are and has shown that there is a clear demand for their product (discounted, cheap inference for new builders). much more work to do on both the demand and supply side imo, but so far so good robinhood:0xaa07a0e9209e16ac99708c3ec70159c6ef3128a3 - one of the revenue generators on RH. Inference demand is still climbing, with real usage from non-crypto users buying discounted inference via card. Revenue cooled a bit after the initial spike, but the product shows sticky demand. A large portion of revenue comes from trading fees on the underlying token, so this piece is market-condition dependent and should pick up as activity does. Team has partnered with NEAR and Phala for private inference and is expanding supply. they’re also building an agentic launchpad on Mosh where projects pair against ORBIO and fees route into the agent’s stake + CREDIT so agents can fund their own inference. The team already knows how to supply and route demand on RH and the launchpad is the next layer that turns ORBIO into the base asset funding agent runtimes. $BUN - sits at the intersection of launchpad infra × agenticFi × revenue × ownership. Mosh locks ~70% of supply in non-custodial vaults controlled by AI agents that market-make (they can trade but can’t withdraw). BUN was the first token launched this way and already has agents accumulating ETH from activity. Teams like Orbio are using it for their own agentic launchpads. as agents market-make those pairs they accumulate more of the underlying token, which then further supports liquidity. This reflexivity flywheel compounds with every additional launch and becomes more obvious when on-chain liquidity conditions improve. i covered the protocol in more depth here: teapawt.net/that1618guy/status/210…

Big update, and we're directly competing with Venice on this one. Orbio is a privacy OpenRouter with a GPT-like interface. One chat, with private models at your fingertips: 25 sealed across Phala and NEAR, uncensored ones included, beside every major model below list price. Your message is encrypted in your browser and opens only inside a verified enclave. On Venice, by their own description, E2EE needs Pro, and uploads, web search and memory aren't available on it. Here there's no subscription, and the agent keeps working. Next we're stepping into our own inference for uncensored privacy: distributed GPUs and hardware we run ourselves.

Introducing Raeto Console V2. Console V2 will also allow us to build on our mainnet product. Raeto is one balance that pays for your AI agents. One key gets them 400+ models, and you stay in control of every dollar they spend. Build is where you run your agents. See what each agent and each task costs. Give every agent a budget its key can never raise. Catch agents stuck in a loop before they drain your balance, and see exactly how much Raeto saved you. Your agents can buy tools like web search per call, and you can sell your own API to every agent on Raeto. Earn is where your money works. Put assets in a vault and the interest pays for your AI. Hold your AI credits as a token, rCREDIT, where each one spends as $1 of AI and is backed 1:1 by USDG. Earn rCREDIT back on swaps, or give each agent its own private account. Set up in about three minutes. Sign in with Google, email or any wallet. The account layer for agentic finance. raeto.cc/console

$LIT giving us entry now, I’m bidding

Today on MCG @Stateofblocks w/@that1618guy Highlights :n ex Delphi analyst and founder of State of Blocks, a trading community that shares setups and research. Highlights Include: 00:58 - Marcus's Background 03:24 - Relative strength is only relative until the fall catches up 07:03 - @AnthropicAI IPO could drain liquidity like @SpaceX 10:10 - Add risk early and cut risk late 11:21 - Crypto has no passive bid so the marginal buyer rules 11:54 - Calls the Bitcoin low in at $60K 14:21 - $NEAR at $1.80 vs $4 and fundamentals follow price 16:36 - Bitcoin Google searches explain price 18:13 - HYPE at $70 with everyone talking was the warning 20:16 - What gets retail back into crypto? 25:23 - Binance hack of $6B with half frozen 26:00 - Real test is the bank run 28:36 - Bybit handled its hack like a masterclass 31:04 - Bids $HYPE and @Lighter_xyz as the marginal buyer returns 32:50 - Bullish Robinhood Chain after 70-80% pullbacks 33:14 - The trench special bids at a 78% pullback 33:34 - Likes $ORBIO for real revenue 35:05 - Priors dev call at a $2M market cap 43:19 - $700K rewards post was an overreaction 48:36 - Too many copy paste launchpads 49:18 - $BUN is different with AI market making 54:13 - Four agentic finance picks 57:19 - Loves $HOOKR and $STONKBROKER 1:00:06 - HYPE attention and why Kinetic is the beta play 1:03:03 - State of Blocks Discord

Please note today on MCG we will be starting with @that1618guy at 12pm EST to give ourselves more time to talk markets, tickers and ideas. @ChillTRD and @DineroDom0 will be hosting.