Matthias

DOTCOM FRACTAL UPDATE | August 4, 2026 ───────────────── A little over a year ago, looking at the S&P on a large timeframe, the structural similarities between the final phase of the Dotcom cycle and the current cycle became visible. From there, tracking began in earnest, published regularly here. This spring, revisiting the substructure comparison between the Dotcom cycle and today showed two things. First, the wave count had progressed further than initially assumed, a byproduct of only having tracked the weekly timeframe. Second, and more importantly, the current cycle is mapping the S&P Dotcom fractal essentially one to one. The Nasdaq is running the same fractal the S&P ran back then, and the Russell is tracking its own Dotcom fractal in parallel. The same S&P Dotcom fractal also appeared during the financial crisis cycle. What separates this cycle from both of those is structural. Back then, the S&P moved through overlapping, corrective structures rather than, impulsive ones, with only a small parabolic phase at the very end. The Nasdaq, in the same window, ran its own distinct pattern, a full parabola between October 1999 and March 2000. Today, both the S&P and the Nasdaq are running that Nasdaq-style parabola simultaneously, something neither the Dotcom nor the financial crisis cycle produced. Both indices have been building that parabolic structure since the late March low, which represents the final leg of the entire cycle. ───────────────── NASDAQ 100 As flagged last week, the correction from the June 3 high has run deeper and sharper than what the S&P and Russell have shown. The June 9 low held between the 0.236 and 0.382 retracement, a threshold that marks the boundary most parabolas respect before reversing. Given how much momentum was concentrated in AI and how extreme the underlying leveraged product infrastructure has become over the past three years, this correction extended further, into the 0.5 zone, exactly as flagged last week as a possibility. Wednesday July 29 saw a move down to roughly 27,200, briefly touching the November support area. One day later the index reversed sharply and closed back above the 0.382, and the week itself closed there too, a meaningful signal. Yesterday, August 3, added another 1.8%. Since the July 29 low the Nasdaq is up roughly 5.8%, in a V-shaped recovery that closely echoes the reversal seen at the March 30, 2026 low. That March structure has been overlaid in purple on the chart as a reference, the same overlay used on the S&P, to see whether the current move steepens the same way the April to June advance did. The Nasdaq still has ground to cover, roughly 6.9% from current levels to its all-time high. As written yesterday, there remain solid reasons for the Nasdaq to participate fully in the next leg, and the parabola is holding its structure. A deeper dip back toward the 0.5, around 26,800, cannot be ruled out. But the character of this move suggests we are drifting toward a breakout, not away from one. ───────────────── S&P 500 The picture is cleaner here. The July 29 low, following the June 9 low that held the 0.382, printed a higher low, and the index has since rallied more than 4% at the peak. Currently sitting roughly 0.3% from all-time highs, the S&P has already broken the trendline that had held since June 3, and futures have briefly touched a new high pre-market, though not yet confirmed a breakout close. The correction here has been notably shallower than the Nasdaq's, roughly 5% at the deepest point versus nearly 12% on the Nasdaq. The March-to-June move has also been overlaid here in purple as a structural reference, purely to gauge whether the strength and extension repeat, not to claim any precise timing. ───────────────── RUSSELL 2000 The Russell has been in a mild downtrend since July 1, breaking support near 2,930 on July 29 before immediately reclaiming it the next day, followed by a retest on Friday. Since then it has rallied as much as 3.7% at the peak, alongside yesterday's broader move. Targets remain unchanged. ───────────────── TIMING This is my own read on the structure, not a hard rule. Roughly speaking, the topping window sits somewhere in late summer to early autumn across all three indices. Once a breakout is confirmed, the emerging substructure will tell us more precisely where we actually stand. ───────────────── Structure The March-to-June advance does not need to repeat identically. It can compress, as the KOSPI demonstrated. It can also extend further than expected if genuine euphoria enters the picture. Anyone trying to pin down a maximum target in order to exit at the exact top runs into the same problem every cycle: that level often only gets touched briefly, because too many people are waiting for exactly that point to take profit. This is the phase where caution and clean risk management matter more than chasing a precise number. There is a real case for extension here specifically because we have not seen classical euphoria yet, not in sentiment surveys, not amplified by media coverage. What we have seen instead is the quiet, structural version of FOMO. If the narrative shifts during this next leg, if earnings, seasonality, midterms, and a year-end rally become the new justification for higher targets, many participants will read the next correction after this leg as just another normal pullback within a normal rally, not as the actual top. That is precisely the setup that tends to extend a move further than the structure alone would suggest. Whoever is chasing the last piece of this move will find plenty of participants doing the same. ───────────────── WHAT THIS MEANS AI will almost certainly continue participating in the next leg, but the bulk of its momentum has likely already been spent. For most participants, the eventual top will not feel like a top. The dominant narrative on the way there will most likely shift toward this being the continuation of a normal rally, followed by a normal correction, with a strong seasonal, midterm-driven year-end rally expected afterward. The Dotcom fractal structure across the S&P and Russell does not support that read once this leg completes. Once the structure breaks for the first time at the top, it will mark the first significant correction since April 2025. If classical euphoria has entered the picture by then, that break will look to most like a dip to buy, a chance to ride the next wave up. In reality the parabola will most likely already be broken, and the next move will not do what the crowd expects. We are not there yet. The next step is watching for the breakout, its confirmation, and how the initial substructure forms. This is a genuinely interesting window, crypto included. The probability that Bitcoin has already found its bottom is high, and the probability that Bitcoin participates in this move alongside a breakout in the indices is, in my view, very high. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #DotcomFractal #SP500 #Nasdaq #Russell2000 #CIF #EndCycle #TheBigCycleGame

WEEKLY MACRO UPDATE | November 8, 2026 ───────────────── MARKETS S&P 500 Close: 7,376 | Weekly: −3.07% CNN Fear & Greed: 22 — Extreme Fear Nasdaq 100 Close: 26,989 | Weekly: −5.50% Russell 2000 Close: 2,754 | Weekly: −2.39% Dow Jones Close: 51,275 | Weekly: −1.17% S&P 500 Equal Weight (SPXEW) Close: 8,748 | Weekly: −1.06% SPXEW/SPX: +2.00% | Russell/SPX: +0.43% Another week of heavy selling in tech. The Nasdaq lost 5.5%, the S&P 500 3.07% and the VIX jumped almost 35%, with CNN Fear & Greed back in extreme fear. The equal weight index and the Russell held up clearly better, with the equal weight index beating the cap weighted S&P by about 2%. ───────────────── DOTCOM FRACTAL STATUS There was a detailed update on Friday and the reading has not changed. The structures remain intact. With more structure added, especially in the Nasdaq, it looks as if the Nasdaq follows the 2007 structure in its final act, and the correction that began in the summer fits that structure on both the large and the small time frame. The chances are good that the correction is either already behind us or close to its end, which many do not expect. If the recovery that began on Friday continues early in the week, analysts will probably answer reflexively that it is only a dead cat bounce, as they did in April 2025 and again in April this year, which led to many misjudgments. One should still not be surprised if it goes lower once more. teapawt.net/thebigcyclegame/status… The S&P also seems to follow the 2007 structure and has not gone as deep so far. The difference to 2007 is that the breadth only corrected then once the S&P began to sell off, while in this phase breadth started to correct much earlier without the index showing it. A large part of the correction has therefore already run hidden, and the index is now catching up. teapawt.net/thebigcyclegame/status… The Russell gave back the whole recovery it had started and formed a lower low on Friday. The reading is unchanged. A bounce lies ahead, and the area between roughly 2,900 and 3,000 could be tested once more. A stronger move toward new all time highs is not ruled out, but technically much would have to happen first. For now the Russell has its top in, and after the bounce the correction should continue lower. teapawt.net/thebigcyclegame/status… ───────────────── SECTOR ROTATION Weekly performance: XLC +4.40%, XLRE +1.93%, XLY +0.56%, XLF +0.37%, XLP +0.11%, XLV +0.08%, KRE −0.52%, XLU −0.48%, XLB −2.33%, XLI −3.72%, IGV −5.69%, XLK −8.69%, XLE −10.47%, SOX −14.08% XLK vs XLU: −8.24% | XLY vs XLP: +0.30% Only six of fourteen sectors finished higher, after nine. The sector that carried the rally for months is giving up the most, with semis down 14.08% and tech down 8.69%, and according to the Dot-com fractal the SOX topped in the summer and has been correcting ever since. Energy lost 10.47% as oil fell almost 12%. For the last leg up to come, breadth probably has to return, because the momentum is out of semiconductors. A hard comeback there is possible, but the reading of the SOX makes it difficult, and a comeback in breadth is more likely. ───────────────── RATES, DOLLAR AND COMMODITIES 30-year: 5.263% | Weekly: −1.24% 10-year: 4.859% | Weekly: −1.84% 2-year: 4.512% | Weekly: −2.04% DXY: 102.28 | Weekly: +0.30% Oil (WTI): $90.35 | Weekly: −11.76% Gold: 4,069 | Weekly: +4.84% Silver: 51.90 | Weekly: +5.61% VIX: 25.63 | Weekly: +34.54% Yields fell for the fourth week in a row, the 2 year most. Oil dropped almost 12% on hopes for a peace deal after the midterms, while gold gained 4.84% and silver 5.61%, so among the commodities the precious metals are stronger than almost everything else this week. ───────────────── CRYPTO Bitcoin: 75,800 | Weekly: −3.11% Bitcoin vs S&P 500: −0.20% Crypto Fear & Greed (CoinMarketCap): 32 — Fear Ethereum: 2,238 | Weekly: −1.56% Bitcoin has fallen for five weeks in a row and has bounced twice off the 50 week moving average that many watch. A weekly close below it would mean the bear market is not over and new lows are coming. At the same time the biggest names in the scene are speaking up again. They read the start of the correction in traditional markets as the beginning of the broad correction, as it often is around the midterms, expect crypto to be dragged down and see traditional markets finding their low only at the end of the year or early next year. Even so, crypto held up well against traditional markets, and Bitcoin against the S&P was almost unchanged on the week. The core of the debate is the new cycle. One camp says the bottom is in and the new cycle has begun, the other says the bottom is not in yet and the new cycle starts afterwards. Why many indicators work less reliably than people are used to may simply come from the width of the cycle in traditional markets, in which crypto no longer experiences the cycle many expect. My reading is that this is only a bullish phase inside a bear market that has not ended, in which Bitcoin makes another corrective rally, as in the second half of 2021 or in 2025, while the altcoins complete the structures they could not finish at the end of 2025. That is why I look less at structures that build from scratch after a classic cycle bottom and more at those that follow a completed bull cycle, as after April 2021. A lot of the misunderstanding comes from thinking only in black and white. ───────────────── RETAIL AND NARRATIVE MONITOR Both monitors cover the week of October 25 to 31, so they do not yet reflect last week's selloff in equities or the further drop in Bitcoin. Interest among newcomers stays at the bottom. The crypto search score held at 1 for a second week, and with Bitcoin falling below 80,000 neither bargain hunters nor panic arrived. Bitcoin searches stand only 28% and Coinbase searches 20% above their five year lows, the equity score rose to 32 from 29, and Coinbase's third quarter shows monthly users at 7.4 million, 20% fewer than a year ago, with consumer spot volume down 59%. teapawt.net/thebigcyclegame/status… In the Narrative Monitor the bull share rose to 52% from 47%, above 50% for the first time since mid September, while searches for the four year cycle and for a bottom stay above 90% of all weeks since 2021. Most of that week's searches came before the drop below 80,000, so this week's data will show whether the crowd turned more cautious. A small, mostly unconvinced core and an absent public is still the picture, and the warning would come with a bull share above 60% and rising supercycle searches while retail stays away. teapawt.net/thebigcyclegame/status… ───────────────── CREDIT MONITOR The broad junk bond market started to move. The high yield spread widened to 348 basis points, up 45 in a month and only 12 below the stressed trigger near 360, while BB bonds rose to 2.13% from a low of 1.50% in late August and CCC spreads held at 13.20%. The signal changed from DIVERGING to CONFIRMING, which is no relief, because with the S&P now 5.9% below its high, stocks have started to confirm what credit has signaled since late September. teapawt.net/thebigcyclegame/status… Stress concentration fell to 5.2, but only because BB is rising and not because CCC is falling, which is how stress began to spread in 2000 [Link]. A high yield spread above 360 basis points with BB holding above its recent range would turn the signal to STRESSED. ───────────────── MIDTERMS The midterms were one of the topics of the week. Democrats won the House by a wide margin and flipped the Senate, with seven Republican seats changing hands, and they did so in traditionally Republican states as well. In Texas, Democrats won both the Senate seat and the governorship, and voters cited high prices and the war in Iran. Stocks rallied on Wednesday, with the Dow having its best post-midterm day since 1982. On Thursday the Nasdaq fell 5.5% as fears grew that a Democratic Congress and states like Texas could tighten rules or even pause the buildout of AI data centers. I would not over-interpret this. It is not a fundamental reason, the market is looking for an explanation, and the sell off of the heavyweights was visible in the structure beforehand. ───────────────── MACRO AND EARNINGS REVIEW On Friday the October jobs report beat expectations clearly, with 165,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.1% and September revised higher. Expectations for a December hike rose, but the 10 year yield fell about 1.8% on the week and closed Friday only slightly higher, by roughly 0.5%, which I would not overweight. The reading fits, because yields would have reacted much more strongly if the market saw the jobs data as the core of the inflation problem, and Warsh has pointed out that the labor market is not the reason for inflation, so the reflex that strong data means a hike does not hit the core of it. As I laid out in my post on payrolls around the top, payrolls are no longer the best indicator of strength at the end of a cycle, and the level the market celebrates is low compared with earlier cycles. teapawt.net/thebigcyclegame/status… Earnings continued with Apple, Palantir, AMD, Super Micro, Arista and Qualcomm. Apple earned 2.10 dollars per share on revenue of 114.5 billion, up 12%, and Palantir grew revenue 96% to 2.31 billion and raised its outlook, yet both fell after the reports before Apple reached a record high on Wednesday. AMD grew data center revenue 97% but free cash flow fell 64%, and the stock fell 17% on Thursday. Super Micro beat revenue by a wide margin and Arista rose 12% on guidance, while Qualcomm lost 9.5% on a weak outlook and Arm 13% despite 27% revenue growth. AppLovin jumped 31%. Expectations were mostly met or beaten, but the market now reacts to outlooks, margins and cash flow more than to the quarter just reported. ───────────────── GEOPOLITICS On Iran, markets are pricing in peace, with Brent down about 16% on the week, its biggest drop since 2020, as the midterm result raised hopes of de-escalation. Qatar submitted a 48 hour plan in which Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and commit to nuclear talks. Neither side has formally accepted it, and Iran is reviewing it. Trump says the talks continue and a deal is still possible, yet the US struck an Iranian air defense system on Qeshm Island on Saturday for the second time in five days, and attacks on tankers continue. One energy analyst sees an 80% probability that fighting resumes. In Russia and Ukraine, negotiators from both sides and the US meet on Tuesday in Abu Dhabi for a fourth round of talks. Ahead of it, Russia hit Kyiv and other regions with missiles and drones on Saturday, damaging networks that carry power from nuclear plants to Kyiv, while Ukraine struck industrial sites in Oryol. Zelensky says Moscow is stepping up the pressure before the talks. ───────────────── THE WEEK AHEAD October CPI follows on Tuesday, with consensus at 0.3% on the month after 0.6% in September, core at 0.2%, and a Cleveland Fed estimate of about 3.7% year over year. Producer prices follow on Friday, expected at 0.3% to 0.4% after 1.3% in September. CPI is the last inflation report before the Fed's December 9 meeting. It can come out hotter than expected, as the ISM prices component and energy prices suggested, but with yields lower the weight of the data should be a different one. CoreWeave reports on Tuesday and Cisco on Thursday. ───────────────── BOTTOM LINE The picture is interesting. Until early summer we saw very strong advances in the indices and in single stocks, and since the summer a correction has been running that is still not over. At the same time the rotation was in full swing. The indices looked strong while many sectors bled and were already in bear market territory weeks ago, and now the indices are catching up with what the weak breadth had shown. Tech gave up the most last week, while the equal weight index and the Russell held up comparatively well, and Bitcoin and Ethereum did too, despite the Binance hack more than a week ago and despite the selloff in tech. That shows the rotation is still under way. Next to technical data, Fibonacci levels and support zones, the psychological side is often ignored. Many in traditional markets now call for a further correction, and big names have started to look at a fourth quarter bottom again, which is actually good for the market. In crypto the crowd will not be right. It looked at a fourth quarter bottom, watched the rally from the sidelines and now hopes it goes lower. The more big names say it will go much deeper because the indices are correcting, the more people take that narrative back up, and those on the sidelines will not start building positions now but wait, as so often, for the best possible entry, which is neither here nor at 72,000 but much lower. Many compare today's structure with 2023, but psychologically there is a clear difference. The Retail Monitor and the Narrative Monitor both show interest at an extreme low. If this were the 2023 structure and the bottom were already in, it would meet a base that is far more uncertain than it was then, because at the same point in 2023 sentiment had already flipped clearly toward a bullish bias. The flip came quickly, the majority already assumed the bottom was in, and the structure held without forming a new low. Today many compare the structure but expect another leg down, while the flip has not happened yet. On the psychological timeline we are still behind the 2023 structure, and since that structure held with a better psychological base, it is hard to imagine that with less interest and no flip yet, much lower lows should follow now. Whichever narrative is used, whether the election, the better jobs data or inflation, all of them point lower, which is exactly the kind of setting in which markets tend to turn. The market expects another hike in December and with it more pressure on risk assets, yet Treasuries have fallen since the end of September, and they may well have seen their top. In this phase the market does not move as rationally as many would like. The index surface has already corrected far more than the indices show, and Nasdaq and S&P seem to follow the 2007 structure in their final act, whose base in the years before was the same Dot-com fractal from 1996 to 2000. History does not repeat but rhymes, so the end phases can still run somewhat differently. The current reading therefore strongly allows that we are already at the end of the correction or close to it, in traditional markets and in crypto. Psychologically the sentiment is perfect for a further rise. The rally in crypto was driven more by uncertainty and worry than by conviction, so declines fall on a base that never assumed it could go higher, and the altcoins, which are still bleeding and have given back most of the August move, offer the base from which further gains can start. I stay with the picture of all the sequences we see, which recall 2000 and a combination with 2007, with several indices already having followed their Dot-com patterns and now in correction mode. We are in the last phase, and crypto will probably not experience a complete new spring in it, but a last rally before the final bell. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #WeeklyMacroUpdate #CIF #Nasdaq #Bitcoin #Russell2000 #Credit

CREDIT MONITOR | November 7, 2026 ───────────────── Last week, the broad junk bond market started to move. The high-yield spread widened to 348 basis points, up 45 in a month and only 12 below the stressed trigger near 360. BB bonds, the better part of junk, rose to 2.13% from a low of 1.50% in late August. CCC spreads held at 13.20%, more than four points higher than a year ago. The signal changes from DIVERGING to CONFIRMING. That is no relief. With the S&P now 5.9% below its high, stocks have started to confirm what credit has signalled since late September. Stress concentration, the CCC gap divided by the BB spread, fell from 5.8 to 5.2, but for the wrong reason: BB is rising, not CCC falling. That is how stress began to spread in 2000. ───────────────── One caveat matters. BB spreads have swung between 1.84% and 2.13% over the past three weeks, and similar early moves since 1997 have faded about as often as they kept going. On their own, they are not yet a turn. What gives them weight is the context. The Russell, semis, transports and other markets appear to have completed their dotcom-era fractals, and the credit picture looks most like the months before the top in 2000. In late-cycle phases like 1998, mid 2007 and late 2021, a rising BB spread was the start of something larger. The test is clear. A high-yield spread above 360 basis points, with BB holding above its recent range, would turn the signal to STRESSED and confirm that stress is moving beyond the weakest borrowers. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #CreditMonitor #HighYield #JunkBonds #CreditSpreads #CIF #TheBigCycleGame

PAYROLLS AROUND THE TOP | November 7, 2026 ───────────────── Friday's payroll report beat expectations, with 165,000 new jobs in October, and jobless claims came in better than expected too. The verdict was quick: the economy is strong. It is worth asking what strong used to look like. In the year before the 2000 top, the US added 250,000 jobs a month. Before the 2007 top, 106,000. Over the last twelve months, 74,000. And the economy is bigger now. Applied to today's 159 million payroll jobs, the pace of 2000 would mean about 307,000 jobs a month, the pace of 2007 about 123,000. Today's job growth is a quarter of 2000 and a little over half of 2007. ───────────────── The recent months did pick up, to 137,000 a month since August. That is no all clear. In March 2000, right at the top, the report showed 484,000 new jobs, partly census hiring, and the slide into recession began within a year. The numbers themselves keep moving. August was first reported at 162,000 and now stands at 186,000. The benchmark revision in August erased 706,000 jobs, about 78% of the gains first reported for the year to March 2026. Near turning points, monthly payrolls are the least reliable data we have. A beat is measured against expectations that have been lowered for years. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #NonfarmPayrolls #JobsReport #LaborMarket #Recession #CIF #TheBigCycleGame

BITCOIN FRACTAL UPDATE | November 7, 2026 After this turbulent week, a look at the structure in comparison with the fractal from September 2021. As mentioned before, I follow two fractals, and the 2021 one more closely. We are in a corrective structure that looks very similar to 2021, and just as then, Bitcoin is testing the support area between roughly 75,000 and 76,000. With Friday's move it also swept the low of September 15. ───────────────── The indicators show interesting similarities as well. On October 30 the RSI was near 34, the same level it reached at the low in the 2021 fractal, before the reversal began a few days later. That does not mean we rise straight away, but the chart structure now comes with an indicator picture that looks similar. The MACD shows momentum fading, and the daily RSI already has bullish divergences. As in 2021, Bitcoin also moves around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. Another wick lower is not ruled out, but everything looks good overall. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #Bitcoin #CryptoFractal #RSI #MACD #CIF #EndCycle #TheBigCycleGame

NASDAQ 2007 FRACTAL | November 6, 2026 ───────────────── The Nasdaq has traced its 2006/07 path closely. Lined up on five turning points, from the April 2025 low to the low this week, the two paths match with a correlation of 0.93. Today runs about 1.5 times slower and with larger swings, but the last correction fits almost to the day: 28 days and 12.7% in 2007, 31 days and 16.6% now, both overlapping rather than impulsive. The S&P tells a different story. In July and August 2007 it fell 12.2%. This time it fell only 7.3%. The sectors explain why. In 2007 the correction hit a market that had barely corrected, so all twelve sectors fell. In 2026, seven of fourteen sectors had already dropped 8% or more over the summer. During the decline since October, eight sectors rose, while semis and tech took almost all of the selling. ───────────────── Credit adds a second difference. In the summer of 2007 stress hit the whole junk market at once, and BB spreads jumped by more than a point. The final leg into October came only after the Fed cut rates and that broad stress eased. Today the broad market is calm, with BB spreads near their lowest levels since 1997, while the pressure sits with the weakest borrowers. There is no broad fire to put out, so a final leg may not need the Fed at all. History allows for it. Since 1998 the Russell never set a record while CCC spreads rose two points or more in three months. The S&P did, in 1998 and 1999, the late phase of the dotcom cycle. Large caps can keep rising while stress builds at the bottom. ───────────────── What could carry such a leg is open. Semis do not look like the engine for now, a bounce at best. A broader move led by the sectors that corrected first seems more plausible. This is a thought to follow, not a forecast. It holds only as long as stress stays at the bottom. If BB spreads start to widen and high yield moves toward 360 basis points, the setup turns into 2007 without the Fed. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #Nasdaq #SP500 #DotcomFractal #CreditSpreads #MarketBreadth #CIF #TheBigCycleGame

DOTCOM FRACTAL UPDATE - RUSSELL | November 6, 2026 After the Russell 2000 took out the April 30 low with its low of October 16, a rise followed that reached about 6% at the high on November 4. Yesterday it gave back more than 5% during the day, so it took out the low of October 16, and in premarket trading today it is also below yesterday's low. Interestingly, the recovery ran up to the first marked and often mentioned zone near 2,887. ───────────────── The reading for the Russell is now somewhat more complex. According to the Dot-com fractal, the Russell may already have seen its bounce, but I would not assume that for now. As things stand, the weekly close does not appear to land in yesterday's area, which could still allow the bounce toward 2,900 and 3,000 that has been discussed for some time. The ratio of the Russell to the S&P also still sits above its support, which for now speaks for a bounce still ahead. It could also be that this was already the bounce and that the structure and the correction continue lower from here. That is not the primary reading for now. The primary reading is that another, stronger bounce comes, especially once the traditional markets have finished their correction as well. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #DotcomFractal #Russell2000 #SmallCaps #CIF #EndCycle #TheBigCycleGame

DOTCOM FRACTAL UPDATE - S&P | November 6, 2026 On the futures chart the S&P lost almost 5% at its low yesterday and closed down about 4.5%, stopping just short of the 0.382 retracement at 7,309. Because the Nasdaq appears to follow the 2007 structure, I looked at the S&P in 2007 as well. Since the last correction low at the end of March 2026, which matches March 6, 2007 in the analogy, we first had an impulsive rise this year. In 2007 the S&P was strong too, but more overlapping, especially after it took out the high of February 22, 2007 at 1,465, where our first move was clearly stronger. What we see since then are corrective, overlapping moves, which still holds up in the analogy. ───────────────── One difference to the Nasdaq is the depth of the correction. In 2007 the S&P fell by more than 12% from the high of July 16 to the low of August 16, and today we are at about 7%. It moved deep into the last larger correction between February and March 2007, formed no new low and then started the last phase into the top on October 11, 2007. In the current phase the Nasdaq has reacted much more strongly, while many sectors in the S&P had already corrected sharply in recent weeks without the index showing that weakness. This correction may be ending just as it may be for the Nasdaq, although a move somewhat lower is possible, today or over the course of next week. Even if the S&P falls considerably deeper, the 2007 analogy shows that the last phase can still follow, which is what I currently expect. The structure remains intact and the targets remain realistic. What will matter is whether we get impulsive or overlapping structures, and that is something I will watch when it comes to that. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #DotcomFractal #SP500 #Fractal #CIF #EndCycle #TheBigCycleGame

DOTCOM FRACTAL UPDATE - NASDAQ | November 6, 2026 After yesterday's selloff the Nasdaq futures lost 6.72%, almost 7.3% at the low, which is a substantial move. The question now is whether the correction continues lower and what the fractal can tell us. The base I am watching is that the S&P and the Nasdaq both run inside the S&P Dot-com fractal from 1996 to 2000. Both have been in a parabolic move since April 2025, and after the correction at the start of this year, into the end of March, they entered the last phase of the parabola. ───────────────── It has become obvious in recent days that the Nasdaq has not finished the correction that began in the summer. Measured against the whole move from the end of March to the high of October 6, it has run into the Fibonacci zone between the 0.5 and the 0.618 retracement and tested the highs of October 2025, which is initially a strong support area. Whether it holds will show. A move somewhat lower is possible, and the Nasdaq could dip below the October highs, perhaps toward the 25,000 region. The structure that has formed strongly resembles the end phase of the Nasdaq fractal from 2006 to 2007. Between the interim top of July 19, 2007 and August 16, 2007 the Nasdaq fell almost 13%, and today's move from October 6 to November 5 is almost 17%, with a very similar structure. Back then it also tested the January high, dipped briefly below it during the day and started a V shaped recovery the next day. That recovery began the last run into the top on October 31, 2007. ───────────────── If the analogy holds, the depth of this correction and the structure behind it make the area toward 36,000 relevant again, possibly with an overshoot. There is no guarantee, and I am generally not a fan of going for the last lemon. The orange line in the chart shows the last piece of the 2007 fractal after the end of the correction, adjusted to today. It makes no claim to timing or height and serves only as a symbol. The structures remain intact. We seem to be moving in the 2007 setup for the final piece of the parabola in the Nasdaq. Whether the bottom is in, or whether it goes lower once more today or early next week, is possible and even likely before the reversal begins sooner or later. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #DotcomFractal #Nasdaq #Fractal #CIF #EndCycle #TheBigCycleGame

THE FINAL WASHOUT? | November 5, 2026 Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist Michael Wilson recently wrote that the correction since June is in its "final innings", but that he still expects one more decline and wants to see deeper sentiment capitulation first. Today the market seems to be delivering it. The Nasdaq is down almost 5%, the S&P 500 2.7% and the Russell 2000 3.4%, and the VIX stands near 24. That meets a market that was already fearful and will probably end the day in single digit territory on the Fear & Greed Index. ───────────────── The correction has been running beneath the surface for a long time, and now it has reached the indices. Until a few weeks ago the gap between the S&P 500 and the equal weight S&P was very wide, and the question was whether the equal weight would catch up or the S&P would correct. We now see both, with the sectors beginning to catch up while the index came down. According to Citadel Securities, professionals positioned for this, with hedge funds raising bearish bets until short positions stood close to a five year high, while retail investors bought the dip for 22 sessions in a row. ───────────────── Sentiment will worsen from here, and many will feel confirmed that seasonality has returned with the long overdue correction, even though it has been running under the surface for weeks and months. To most, a bullish case now seems almost impossible. That does not mean it cannot turn out differently, but expecting much lower from here could mean betting on the wrong horse, the one many are betting on right now. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #Nasdaq #SP500 #VIX #Bitcoin #Correction #CIF #EndCycle

RUSSELL AND CREDIT | November 5, 2026 ───────────────── Small companies depend on open credit markets far more than the giants in the S&P. When financing gets harder for the weakest borrowers, the Russell 2000 is usually the first to feel it. Since 2020, a quarter of rising CCC spreads has gone hand in hand with small caps falling behind the S&P. The same order shows up at every cycle top since 2000. The Russell peaked first, 14 days ahead of the S&P in 2000, 88 days in 2007 and 56 days in 2021. In each case, CCC spreads widened while the S&P was still climbing to its final high. ───────────────── 2026 is likely following that order. The dotcom fractal points to a Russell top in mid August, and the structure since then supports that reading, though it is not confirmed yet. The S&P set an interim high on October 6, and its final top may still be ahead. Since the Russell top, the CCC spread has risen more than three points, more than in any of the earlier cycles. ───────────────── Can the Russell still reach a new all-time high? The level of credit stress alone would not stop it. In March 2000 it set its last record with CCC spreads even higher than today. The speed does. On all 356 days with a Russell record since 1998, CCC spreads had never risen by two points or more over the previous three months. Today they are up almost three. After similar jumps, new highs came only once spreads had eased again, as in 2010, 2020 and 2025. In late-cycle phases like 2000, 2007 and 2022, they never came. A clear decline in CCC spreads would reopen the path and put the August top in question. As long as they keep rising this fast, a new record is not what the data points to. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #Russell2000 #SmallCaps #CreditSpreads #HighYield #CIF #TheBigCycleGame

WHAT I AM WATCHING NEXT | November 5, 2026 Macro and the fractals should not surprise anyone by now, so this post is about something else. The coming stretch can cloud the mind of anyone who does not classify it today, and in the end everyone makes their own decision. ───────────────── What I took from the past months is this. Bitcoin's top last year was quiet, with no euphoria, no altcoin performance and many indicators silent. Then sentiment was conditioned for months to expect the bottom in Q4 like clockwork, which left many on the sidelines, and the market did what it always does and moved when most did not expect it. This summer was last year's top in reverse. Just as many refused to believe in the bear market at the turn of 2025 to 2026, many still do not believe a new bull phase has begun. I call it a phase on purpose, not a cycle. ───────────────── The camps are clear, the remnants of the Q4 bottom camp and the camp that says the (super)cycle has started. The Retail Monitor shows no interest from anyone outside crypto, which makes sense, because almost every investment beat crypto in recent years, and the credit market says we are not at the start of a new cycle but entering phases that begin to end one. Applying the timeline of a typical bull run assumes plenty of time in an environment that very likely no longer offers it. My assumption is that euphoria arrives with the next impulse in Bitcoin and Ethereum, once the altcoins fly along for the first time, as the first of two euphoria phases. Those still on the sidelines will come in, targets will keep being raised, and an ever broader base will fix levels in its head that must be reached before it sells. The frame of this run is likely very limited, and I can imagine an interesting run in a short window that does not reach the targets many would like. ───────────────── That can affect me too. I would not assume every asset reaches its best case, and it does not have to, because the pleasant returns start much earlier. But I can only act on that while my mind is present and greed has not taken over. Between fear and euphoric greed, both driven by emotion, sit boredom and patience. The nasty part is that fear has a floor, but greed has no ceiling. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Sentiment #MarketCycle #Altcoins #CIF #EndCycle

ETHEREUM FRACTAL UPDATE | November 5, 2026 Yesterday Ethereum won back the resistance area with a daily candle of almost 8% at the high. That suggests the area is now tested as support first. In 2025 it took 15 days until the next breakout followed, and in 2021 18 days. ───────────────── The two fractals differ in one respect. The 2025 one was impulsive both before and after the correction, while the 2021 one was overlapping and corrective on both sides. Regardless, the structure looks good right now. It is worth preparing for another phase of sideways activity from here, one that will demand patience in a sentiment that has no patience left to begin with. That is the key. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #Ethereum #CryptoFractal #Altcoins #Bitcoin #CIF #EndCycle #TheBigCycleGame

Not a new cycle. Just a phase. 👇🏻

👀

BITCOIN FRACTAL UPDATE | November 4, 2026 Building on yesterday's analysis, in which I showed the 2021 and 2025 fractals that resemble the current structure, I am watching the 2021 one most closely. In October of that year it broke out and formed the last parabola before the run was over completely. My assumption is that after last year's top we are in a corrective phase, a larger bear market rally that feels like a new bull cycle to most, but is more likely a bullish phase within a bigger bear trend. The altcoins will probably use Bitcoin's bounce, which likely builds further, to complete the structures they left unfinished in 2025. ───────────────── I also added the 100 day moving average to the chart. In September 2021 Bitcoin landed on it several times and bounced, and now we have several touchpoints on it as well. That does not mean it must hold, or that the price will stay above it on the daily chart, but it is one more point worth watching. A dip is still possible, with a visit to the September lows near 75,000 before the price comes back. Overall the structure looks good, and I think we are either at the end of the correction or close to it. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #Bitcoin #CryptoFractal #Altcoins #MarketCycle #CIF #EndCycle #TheBigCycleGame

ETHEREUM FRACTAL UPDATE | November 4, 2026 Building on yesterday's update, Ethereum dipped once more overnight to 2,225 and is now almost 5% above that low. It is running into the resistance area that served as support between August and October. If the fractal holds, as the attached comparison shows, it will be very interesting to see whether it can win the area back and confirm it as support, as it did in June 2025. Back then ETH made a move of around 10% from the lows after the renewed dip, which also shows on the daily chart. The structure looks good so far. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #Ethereum #CryptoFractal #Altcoins #Bitcoin #CIF #EndCycle #TheBigCycleGame

The Retail Monitor in two numbers. Crypto search score: 1 out of 100, at the floor for a second week. Robinhood app crypto volume: down 48% from a year ago. Searches sit just above their five-year lows. Traders are active. Newcomers are not. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR.

ETHEREUM FRACTAL UPDATE | November 3, 2026 Ethereum's current structure resembles two earlier phases. One is August to September 2021, almost the same window I used for Bitcoin this morning. The other is May to June 2025. Both look similar in their sideways and corrective stage, and the 2025 phase began very impulsively and released impulsively upward at the end. ───────────────── What followed is the interesting part. In 2021 Bitcoin made a parabola from October, while Ethereum also pushed higher but no longer impulsively, moving up in an overlapping, corrective way. Many altcoins that had run earlier in the year with Bitcoin into the May 2021 high looked the same. In 2025 it was different. After the correction in May and June, Ethereum released into a parabolic move from July, much as Bitcoin did from October to November 2021. My reading is therefore the same as for Bitcoin. Once the correction is complete, Bitcoin has the potential to follow an impulsive structure as in 2021, and the altcoins could then follow impulsively as well, as Ethereum did in 2025, instead of in an overlapping way. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #Ethereum #CryptoFractal #Altcoins #Bitcoin #MarketCycle #CIF #EndCycle

The midterm comparison deserves a closer look. In 2018 and 2022, the market fell broadly from the start. In the first 24 days after the S&P high, 14 of 14 and 13 of 14 sectors were down, the VIX was already above 25, and high-yield spreads were widening on their way to 535 and 599 basis points. This time, the Nasdaq is down about 10%, but the S&P only 3.6%. Ten of fourteen sectors rose over the same span, health care, materials and staples by 6% to 8%. The VIX peaked at 20, and the broad high-yield spread sits at 326. That is a rotation out of tech, not a broad selloff. The one point that does fit the bearish case is credit at the bottom of the ladder. CCC spreads widened almost three times as fast as in 2018 and 2022. For a deeper correction, the selling would need to spread across sectors, the VIX would need to close above 25, and the high-yield spread would need to break toward 360. None of that has happened yet. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR.

BITCOIN FRACTAL UPDATE | November 3, 2026 With a few more days of structure, Bitcoin's current phase strongly resembles August to October 2021, the period in which the structures of the earlier cycles took shape. There is one difference. Between the two marked corrections of 2021 the price moved correctively, while this time we saw another short, impulsive rise. ───────────────── The traditional markets appear to be at the end of their correction. At the same time I do not expect a new multi year bull cycle, but the start of a bullish phase. We saw something similar in 2021. After the parabolic bull run into April 2021 and the correction into June, another bullish phase began that is best read as corrective overall. It ended in a higher high in November, but no longer had the strength of the first move. The last parabolic phase inside that structure began in October and ran into November 2021, after the correction was complete. I expect something similar now. If the correction has finished sooner or later, such a structure could establish itself. CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange. @TheBigCycleGame Not financial advice. DYOR. #Bitcoin #CryptoFractal #Parabola #MarketCycle #CIF #EndCycle #TheBigCycleGame