The Black Lab 🇺🇸

SAF FACTSHEET: After every pro-Second Amendment ruling and reform of the last several years, gun control groups, advocates, and public officials predicted more shootings and more death. Instead, American murder fell to record lows. In our new factsheet, we compile the relevant data and link to 85 discredited predictions, all in one easy-to-read reference document. Whether it be Bruen, ATF rulemaking, or states adopting constitutional carry, there is one guarantee: if something favorable to the Second Amendment is happening, anti-gun groups and their allies in elected office will issue statements claiming that a surge in violent crime is imminent. When they make those predictions, journalists often quote them uncritically in their coverage. For example, in its recent article on the Justice Department declining to seek a stay of a ruling against National Firearms Act registration of suppressors and short-barreled rifles and shotguns, CBS News quoted Giffords Executive Director Emma Brown warning that these items “can now easily get into the wrong hands and be used to harm innocent people.” The article did not tell readers that predictions like this one have repeatedly failed to come true in the past. Not only have they been wrong, but they have missed the mark in breathtaking fashion. For example, following the Bruen ruling, Brady, Everytown, Giffords, and March For Our Lives issued a joint statement saying in no uncertain terms that “this ruling will mean more guns in more places, which will inevitably lead to more tragic acts of vigilantism, gun violence, and preventable deaths.” As we all now know, nothing of the sort occurred. Four years on from Bruen, the United States will likely record the lowest murder rate on record in 2026. The predictions weren't just wrong. The very opposite of what they said would happen is what actually came to pass. Yet to our knowledge, no mainstream journalist has demanded that gun control advocates answer for these failed predictions. Instead, they keep quoting their latest claims without even telling the reader that their prior predictions were uniformly wrong. Hopefully, that is because the news media generally isn't aware of all those prior claims or the current crime data. If so, SAF would like to help them (and the public) be better informed on this topic. We have developed a factsheet that compiles the relevant data, as well as 85 failed predictions from anti-gun groups, prominent anti-gun activists, and anti-gun politicians. These predictions span several topic areas: 39 from Bruen, 17 from states enacting permitless or "constitutional" carry, 11 from the NFA tax being zeroed out and related NFA litigation, 7 more from other Trump-era DOJ and ATF actions, and 11 from the Supreme Court's bump stock decision in Garland v. Cargill. A link is provided to each, as well as to all of the relevant crime data. Note that even at 85 examples, we do not claim this factsheet is comprehensive. There are likely hundreds more examples out there. But we think we have made our point. It is time for the news media to push back on the steady stream of failed predictions from the anti-gun side, and we hope our factsheet will be a valuable resource in helping bring about that accountability. The document is linked below!