🔴Iran updated analysis, October 25 I feel like Trump is inducing an internal coup in Iran: the regime’s technocrats against the IRGC. Lest we forget, President Pezeshkian is literally a heart surgeon! Look at Tom Barrack’s comments the other day, he said ther regime itself is just religious, not inherently "evil," and that the only problem is the IRGC. That distinction was telling. After Khamenei’s death, the top IRGC brass effectively took over everything, and the technocrats alone were too weak to challenge them. But with outside backing, those technocrats and the national military might finally have the leverage to stage a coup, take the government back, and put things right. Remember: the IRGC was empowered specifically to protect the regime and more importantly Khamenei himself, while the traditional national military (Artesh) was intentionally weakened. While the IRGC is thoroughly vetted and loyal at the top, you can still find potential defectors within Artesh, as its screening process was not as rigid. Furthermore, the IRGC survived on looted oil revenues, but that lifeline is now practically cut off by legendary @SecScottBessent . Without that cash flow, the lower ranks have zero incentive to fight to the death, especially if @realDonaldTrump or external intelligence reveals that Mojtaba is dead (or better yet, was dead all along, and the top brass lied to manipulate them). That sense of ultimate betrayal could shatter their willingness to resist. As for their only external backer, Russia, it's clear Moscow won't risk its overarching Ukraine deal just to bail out this collapsing regime. On top of that, the US has reportedly warned the Iraqi government to keep the PMF (the regime's proxies) on a tight leash and prevent them from coming to the rescue in the event of a conflict. We saw this playbook in Syria: once financial and military aid ( from Hezbollah and Russia) dried up, Assad fled, and his technocrat Prime Minister handed over the government. So, I’m waiting for a targeted "peeling back" of the IRGC leadership, mid-ranks, and even lower echelons, accompanied by the systematic destruction of IRGC bases (both inside and outside the cities). All of this will likely go down at "Hour Zero" to leave them zero time to react, which explains the massive concentration of forces currently in the region. Given how vast Iran is, total dominance at "Hour Zero" requires more than just U.S. bases in the south. With Washington's recent diplomatic outreach and deepening ties in the region, countries like Azerbaijan, nations in Central Asia (like Uzbakistan), and Iraq are likely to grant airspace access. Over the past few months, every single time the regime tried to repair its air defense or radar systems, they were promptly destroyed again (that’s precisely what those sporadic strikes were all about). Right now, the IRGC is effectively blind and defenseless. The fallout from the previous conflict and the widening rift between the IRGC and the government needed time to become crystal clear. Notice how Ghalibaf (who used to be the pivotal figure back during the MoU days) is completely sidelined from negotiations now. Ghalibaf was always an IRGC security man; today, U.S. overtures and proposals are directed squarely at Pezeshkian. I expect the next war to be short. Strike and then wait for the dust to settle to fully measure the impact, and then again if necessary. Next comes returning to the table and handing over the nuclear program. Once the regime is disarmed and defanged, the path will finally be clear for the Iranians to finish the revolution they started in January 8 and 9. As for the timing, the major carrier strike groups haven't arrived yet; they are still on their way, pointing to a move likely right after the midterms. Until that day, President Trump will keep the IRGC in a state of constant, exhausting panic, wearing them down day by day with endless threats and mixed signals. I’m not saying this is bound to happen, war is full of unpredictable variables that can change the course at any moment. But as someone who knows the regime well, I believe this trajectory is entirely plausible, and everything is aligning for it. Iran will be free, sooner than you think! #JavidShah‌‌‌‌‌