Mountain Bike San Francisco offers bike tours and rentals in Northern California. Mark Baeder, the founder, has been leading private rides, full-day adventures, and corporate events for over 14 years in the Bay Area. With El Niño underway, Northern California could see high monthly rainfall throughout the wet season, especially in November and December. To protect himself against lower bookings for his business, Mark decided to hedge this risk on Kalshi by taking a $1K position on heavy rain in Napa from November 2026 through March 2027. If El Niño doesn't produce heavy rains, his mountain bike business will continue to thrive and serve the community. If El Niño does produce heavy rains, his mountain bike business can expect lower bookings, but his Kalshi position can help cover the difference. Either way, Mark has protected his business against a rainy season.

What type of people are successful on Kalshi? We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found: Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds. -79% went to public school -They are over 2x as likely to have worked retail or service jobs than on Wall Street -65% are self-taught The majority of top traders: : -Actively seek out primary documents for research -Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs -Outperform the public on numeracy tests The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.