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AI bubble concentration is higher than most recent bubbles, except Japan in 1989 and Railroads in the 1880s 😳
BREAKING: Total consumer credit rose +$8.3 billion in August, to a record $5.19 trillion.
This marks the 14th consecutive monthly increase, totalling +$154 billion.
Since the start of 2022, consumer credit has risen +$684 billion.
Non-revolving credit, covering auto and student loans, rose +$13.1 billion in August, to $3.84 trillion, an all-time high.
Meanwhile, revolving credit, which includes credit cards, fell -$4.8 billion, to $1.35 trillion, its 4th-highest level on record.
US consumers are still borrowing.
France is becoming the next financial crisis in Europe. The level of debt/GDP for France vs Germany is shown below.
Years of financial stagnation, with zero spending discipline, has resulted in the extraordinarily high debt for France relative to the size of it's economy. The bond markets are now demanding higher interest rates to buy French debt.
When this happened to Greece back in 2010, requiring bailouts, it was manageable because Greece was relatively small compared to Germany and could be bailed out.
France's total debt is about 8x larger than Greece. It is not possible for Germany to bailout France this time. The only possible bailout would be the European Central Bank, which would have to print trillions of Euros to buy French debt.
France at the same time would be required to impose massive austerity budget cuts to receive the bailout. Look at the protests happening now, that is child's play compared to the riots when France has to do real hardcore budget cuts.
The Benner Cycle has predicted most major downturns so far 📉
This formula from 150 years ago is still relevant today 🤯
Were you aware of this?!? 📊💸
This is a massive story that not enough people are talking about in housing 🏡
The Silver Tsunami is real👴👵
Demographics are destiny 💸
BREAKING 🚨: Commercial Real Estate
Office Delinquency Rates have soared to their highest level in history, surpassing even the peak of the Global Financial Crisis 👀
Over 1/5 of France's entire economy is providing government benefits to seniors💶
French seniors even earn more than young workers 😳
This is the natural progression of aging, Western democracies👴👵
It just can't last forever📉
Confirmation bias tells you the economy and markets will thrive under your preferred party and collapse under the other 🤔
History tells a very different story📊
Keep politics out of your portfolio💸
In 2008 the European Union and the USA had similar sized economies 🇪🇺🇺🇸
In 2026, the USA is $30.5 trillion and the EU is only $20 trillion🤔
Lousy policy has consequences📉
The US stock market is in its own league
US stock market cap now accounts for 45% of the world equity market value, the most among any other major country or region
This is nearly triple the combined proportion of China and Hong Kong, at 16%
The inflation data is massively under reported 📉
This has been well documented. The govt does that intentionally to limit COLA increases on govt benefits🤔
We have become much poorer since the USA left the gold standard and started running up massive govt debt💸
