Pinned Tweet
New blog!
The past two weeks kept me fully occupied, but as usual the material piled up across public notes, private thoughts, Discord, and my prep and review docs.
I pulled it together into one post: my current read on the market, how I'm positioned, and why ever since the massive short and followed bounce trade around the AI trade.
I'm also working on several posts in parallel, covering more frameworks and actionable processes (pyramiding among them) and answering the questions that came in through the Q&A series.
More very soon!
Let me know what you think and don't hesitate to share it around.
theshortbear.substack.com/p/…
The internet is getting to experience what Crypto has had to endure for a decade.
Crypto just like all online businesses is built on code.
For the last decade the only reason Crypto was targeted was unit economics. In short, large hacking groups operate like a business, on risk/reward.
„it’s going to take us an average of $20k with a winrate of 10% to find an exploit, but the reward is a clear $10 million“
Over time the expected value pays off and the transparency Crypto provided in regards to the payoff made it a massive target.
Furthermore the transparency of the technology made it a global target, with tens of thousands and years of defense to protect against attacks.
The unit economics have now shifted.
Each passing quarter, the cost to hack is decreasing exponentially and thus the balance between cost * win rate against the payoff is changing.
Expected Value= (Win Rate * Average Win )-(Loss Rate * Average Loss})
In short, each passing day, the expected value ratio between going for Crypto vs the old tech stack is shifting.
Hacking/exploiting crypto, that has played defense as one of its core missions, is becoming increasingly harder to do then attacking the regular online world.
Not only that but Crypto becomes a real security proposition in a world where the cost to defend increases exponentially.
Growth in liquidity, adoption, lower fees, gains in speed, network effects, new products and more all come on top.
Finally AI is not only shifting the unit economics but it’s also prime to use blockchain for micro-transactions, composability and custom higher velocity products.
The balance is shifting in favor of Crypto from almost all angles. Macro to Micro, the incentives are aligning.
The times are dynamic, volatile and full of risks, but I believe the longer term path is clear.
THE SHORT BEAR retweeted
SEVERAL SENIOR TRUMP ADVISERS BELIEVE AN ISRAELI GOVERNMENT WITHOUT NETANYAHU COULD BE EASIER TO WORK WITH, DESPITE TRUMP’S ENDORSEMENT AHEAD OF TUESDAY’S ELECTION, WITH JD VANCE HAVING GROWN DISILLUSIONED WITH NETANYAHU OVER THE IRAN WAR AND OTHER OFFICIALS RAISING CONCERNS ABOUT ISRAELI POLICIES IN SYRIA, LEBANON AND THE WEST BANK - AXIOS
THE SHORT BEAR retweeted
US equity market breadth is rapidly improving:
The proportion of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average surged +5 percentage points on Friday, to 61%, the highest reading since mid-August.
Since the October 1st intraday low, this figure has more than tripled.
Additionally, the proportion of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average rose +3 percentage points on Friday, to 57%, the most since September 9th.
Over the last 3 weeks, this figure has risen +17 percentage points.
This comes despite the S&P 500 remaining roughly unchanged over the same period.
This also ranks among the 3 sharpest improvements in market breadth over the last 3 years.
On Thursday alone, 335 S&P 500 stocks finished higher, despite the index declining -1.2% on that day.
The market is strengthening beneath the surface.
THE SHORT BEAR retweeted
Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the United States lifts its blockade on Iranian ports, according to Saudi broadcaster Al Arabiya, citing its own sources. Tehran passed the proposal to Washington through Pakistan.
30 years repeating the same line.
Like clockwork in front of elections.
BREAKING: Netanyahu says Iran has now restarted its nuclear program and intends to destroy Israel within a short time.
"Iran has restarted its nuclear program, and it wants to destroy us within a short time," Netanyahu said an hour ago.
IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has warned that resuming the war this close to Tuesday's election will force the vote to be postponed indefinitely.
Netanyahu said on Wednesday that toppling the Iranian regime is now his directive to the IDF and Mossad.
THE SHORT BEAR retweeted
GS: Sharp HF derisking drove this week's equity rotations.
Our HF VIP L/S basket fell 4% on Thursday—a drop rivaled only twice in 10 years: DeepSeek Monday (Jan '25) and the COVID crash (Mar '20).
THE SHORT BEAR retweeted
Introducing the free Government & Legal Index for ChatGPT & Claude.
Give your AI agents 30M+ US government pages, from federal statutes and court opinions to city codes and permits.
Research tax rules, permits & case law with the Firecrawl plugin.
firecrawl.dev/alexandria/gov…
THE SHORT BEAR retweeted
Things just got more extreme this week with Goldman seeing hedge fund gross leverage increasing to the 64th 1-year percentile while net leverage fell further (can't get any lower than the 0 five-year percentile though) meaning an even higher net short position.
Unsurprisingly then the long/short ratio remained at the 0 percentile over the 1, 3, and 5-year lookbacks. Just liberation day has been lower.
Overall hedge fund net positioning according to Goldman has dropped to levels we haven’t seen outside of liberation day in the past five years.
While US Long/Short Fund gross leverage is at the 56th percentile one-year (and the 90th five-year percentile), US net leverage saw “the largest weekly decline since Apr ’25 (week of Liberation Day) and the 4th largest weekly decline in the past five years to 43.7%” which is the 0 percentile for both the one and five-year lookbacks.
The US Fundamental long/short ratio (MV) remained at the 0 percentile one-year (and now also five-year).
So hedge funds decreased longs and increased shorts last week, likely in a move to preserve what has been a good year, but leaving a huge amount of room for them to eventually reengage with the market.
THE SHORT BEAR retweeted
Goldman: The GS Risk Appetite Indicator saw one of its largest drops on record, now at its lowest level since April of last year.
Choppy week overall as we saw a true episode of capitulation and de-grossing on Thursday due to AI financing worries and geopolitical escalation. This led to a notable lack of participation during Friday’s session … -21% vs 5d avg and -33% vs 100d avg – a demonstration of investor fatigue and defensive posturing.
GPUs are aging like fine wine, with rental rates up across the board since January 1st
Approximate change YTD:
- H200: +160%
- B200: +120%
- RTX PRO 6000: +65%
- H100: +35%
Even the 6-year-old A100 rents for more than it did at the start of the year
Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-we…
With the comments on Cuba, almost seems like they want to shift to a conflict that will recreate Venezuela.
Attack nuclear facilities in Iran, pull back, „liberate“ Cuba and come home as „winners“.
Weird comments otherwise given the military in the Middle East and people are mad about a failed war.
THE SHORT BEAR retweeted
Prompt Brent crude futures price now above $116/bbl
Higher than all but two daily closing prices in March and April, and both of those were nearer expiry than today.
THE SHORT BEAR retweeted
TRUMP REPORTEDLY PLANS TO EASE 50% TARIFFS ON CANADA
The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to remove 50% tariffs on certain Canadian agricultural and forestry products, potentially as early as Friday.
The move is intended to provide relief to trade-dependent states, including Maine, ahead of the U.S. midterms.
However, tariffs on other Canadian goods could rise to offset the reductions.
THE SHORT BEAR retweeted
Remember not to mistake a leverage event for a change of fundamentals.
The biggest onslaught I can remember among Macro HFs through my career.
This shall (too) pass
THE SHORT BEAR retweeted
Hedge funds are getting absolutely crushed right now and it helps explain why the stock market has been behaving so irrationally lately.
According to Goldman Sachs, global hedge funds just experienced one of their broadest daily declines since COVID. Fundamental long/short funds lost 1.4% on Thursday, while funds focused on technology, media, and telecommunications fell an average of 2.7%. More than two thirds of hedge funds finished the day in the red. Now, these numbers might not seem that significant compared to what we're seeing in individual stocks, but remember, hedge funds are supposed to manage risk. Many of these funds are designed to make money whether the market goes up or down, yet they're getting hit on both sides of their trades.
So here's what's happening. Most hedge funds own stocks they believe will go higher while simultaneously betting against stocks they expect to fall. Normally, one side is supposed to help offset losses on the other. But right now, their long positions are getting crushed as technology and AI stocks sell off, while some of their short positions are moving higher, forcing them to buy back shares at a loss. And this is where things get interesting. When hedge funds start losing significant amounts of money, they're often forced to reduce their exposure to the market. That means selling positions, raising cash, and reducing leverage. The problem is that they don't necessarily sell companies with deteriorating fundamentals. They often sell whatever they can sell quickly.
This creates a situation where even companies reporting strong earnings, growing revenue, and improving fundamentals can get dragged lower simply because institutions need liquidity. We've been seeing this across semiconductors, memory, AI infrastructure, and other high growth sectors. What's even more interesting is how bearish hedge funds have become. Goldman Sachs reported that short exposure was approaching five year highs, with short selling significantly outpacing long purchases. In other words, a lot of institutional investors are positioning themselves for further declines.
But there's another side to this. When too many investors are betting on the same outcome, even a small market recovery can trigger a significant reversal. If heavily shorted stocks begin recovering, hedge funds may be forced to buy back shares to close their bearish positions. That buying pushes prices higher, potentially forcing even more funds to cover their shorts. Now, does this mean we've officially reached the bottom? Not necessarily. Forced selling can continue longer than people expect, especially when leverage is involved. But I do think it's important to understand that a lot of what we're witnessing right now isn't necessarily being driven by deteriorating company fundamentals. A significant portion could be related to hedge fund positioning, leverage, and institutions being forced to reduce risk.
There's a massive difference between a stock falling because its business is struggling and a stock falling because institutions are being forced to sell. And that's exactly why I'm paying more attention to what these companies are actually reporting than what their stock prices are doing on any given day.
This selloff is a lot closer to the bottom than we think.
According to Jefferies, over the past 10 trading days, its clients have been net sellers of more than $1B worth of technology stocks on 7 separate days. This chart tracks the buying and selling activity of Jefferies’ clients over a rolling 20 day period. When the purple line is above zero, investors are buying more than they’re selling. When it’s below zero, they’re selling more than they’re buying. Right now, that number has collapsed to approximately negative $11B, making this one of the most extreme periods of technology selling we’ve seen in the past two years.
For comparison, even during the major selloffs earlier in 2025 and 2026, the selling pressure wasn’t consistently this severe. And remember, this is just one investment bank’s trading activity. This also helps explain why companies across semiconductors, memory, power, and AI infrastructure have been getting absolutely crushed despite reporting strong earnings and continued demand. A lot of this selling isn’t necessarily happening because the fundamentals have changed. Large institutions are reducing exposure, managing risk and raising cash. When everyone starts selling at the same time, even the best companies get dragged down.
Now, does this mean the bottom is definitely here? Of course not. Nobody knows that but historically, when selling becomes this extreme, it can be a sign that we’re getting closer to exhaustion. Eventually, the forced selling slows down, buyers return, and stocks can recover. My personal view is that we’re likely getting much closer to a bottom, I’m not changing my long term outlook on AI because hedge funds and institutions are aggressively selling technology stocks. The demand for compute, memory, power, and AI infrastructure hasn’t suddenly disappeared. I’m investing with years in mind, not weeks.

































