If you want to understand why Tehran thinks in these terms, I'd recommend my book, West Asia. A new security architecture will eventually take shape across the region, and the open question is whether it will end up as two architectures or one.

My book West Asia argues that a Turkey-Pakistan will be foundational to a broader Indo-Islamic coalition (not an alliance) that would bring in Qatar Saudi, and perhaps Egypt, and eventually link with Indonesia and Malaysia. And here we are: the Iran war has catalyzed the thesis.

What happens in the Gulf doesn't stay in the Gulf.. Yesterday I joined @BeckyCNN on @CNN from Abu Dhabi to talk through where the region stands. Yemen: The Saudi defense minister's visit to Abu Dhabi matters. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have more in common on Yemen than before, and the Houthis are pushing a two-front war on Iran's behalf. Russia: It's no longer speculation that Moscow gave Iran equipment and targeting capacity early in the war.. Capital: I'm not worried about Gulf sovereign wealth funds in the year ahead. They are long-horizon investors with strong, successful bets. But the longer the war runs, the more budgets and reconstruction bills could come under strain. Watch 2027. AI Infrastructure: The fundamentals haven't changed: abundant energy, capital, political commitment, and proximity to markets that need compute. The world needs about 150 GW online in three years, at roughly $50B per gigawatt. Few places outside the US and China can fund that. What has changed is the security profile, so data centers will go underground and inside air defense umbrellas. Ukraine Playbook: Kyiv doubled its compute capacity, and that is a big reason Ukraine is still in the fight. Without AI, it would have lost the war. The Gulf is now facing its own confrontation with Iran, and it will need to follow the same playbook. @MiddleEastInst