Nice quarter from $sofi. A 79 rule of 40 and net charge offs are down. Noto is a great CEO, future is bright.
Great points. Look at how much $INTR and $nu grew earnings under Lula. Yes, business won't be as good, but they will still be earning. Only problem is if Lula devalues the BRL to nothing since you have to exchange this into USD.
$INTR at $4.5, the market is pricing as if today's profitability never improves.
A bank at roughly book value is priced to earn about its cost of equity, with no value creation above it.
What are the levers I see which are not priced in:
1) Loan book repricing: Old loans earn c.12% ROE while new loans are written at c.22%. As old loans are replaced, ROE should climb toward management's 2029 target of 28%.
2) Private payroll maturity: It has been the biggest driver for increasing NPLs, we should see an improvement with automatic re-linking, Inter's own relinkage, credit insurance (Aug-26) which will also drive higher revenues. Lower NPLs = higher profit.
3) Credit catch-up: Inter handles ~9% of Brazil’s Pix payments (Brazil’s instant payment system, created and run by the Central Bank), but holds only ~1.5–2% of most loan markets. Its clients bank with Inter but borrow elsewhere. Closing that gap = growth with near-zero acquisition cost.
4) Secure lending: Top-5 banks still own c.82% of secured personal loans (R$2.6-2.7tn) vs 63-67% in unsecured (already disrupted). Real estate is a R$1.4tn pool. There is already an increasing real-estate demand funnel, 3.5-4x in 18 months.
5) Demographics: Kids accounts: 5mm opened, ~2mm live. ARPAC under-17 ~R$3 -> R$30 at 18+ -> mature cohorts >R$100/month (avg R$59)
6) AI at scale: headcount has been flat at ~4,000 since 2022. Management’s 28% ROE target assumes a conservative 35% cost-to-income ratio; AI could push it to 30% or below. Pure upside, not in the plan.
7) Fee engines: Subscription plans (One/Prime/Win), Inter Ads (Jun'26), investment advisory, payroll credit insurance, InterPag acquiring, card interchange (credit TPV share >2%). Target: fees at 25% of revenue, from c.22% today.
Other levers excluded but could potentially be:
Selic easing: the Brazilian Central Bank is cutting rates, from 15% in Feb’26 to 13.75% in Sep’26. Lower rates ease households’ debt burden (fewer defaults) and boost demand for long-term secured credit like mortgages. The market is fearing that with more Lula the rates might go up, but we were actually seeing a downward trend these last months with him.
Not financial advices, just my thoughts.
Not great report tbh, they missed on everything. I sold
AMKOR $AMKR Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $1.99B (Est. $2.01B) 🔴; vs $1.99B LY
🔹 EPS: $0.76 (Est. $0.78) 🔴; vs $0.51 LY
🔹 Gross Margin: 18.3% (Est. 19.1%) 🔴
🔹 Operating Income: $225M (Est. $247M) 🔴
Q4 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $1.9B-$2.0B (Est. $2.02B) 🔴
🔹 EPS: $0.65-$0.75 (Est. $0.76) 🔴
🔹 Gross Margin: 18.0%-19.0% (Est. 19.0%) 🟡
🔹 Net Income: $160M-$185M (Est. $189M) 🔴
🔹 FY26 Capital Expenditures: ~$2.5B
Product Revenue:
🔹 Advanced Products: $1.63B; vs $1.68B LY
🔹 Mainstream Products: $359M; vs $303M LY
End Markets (% of Net Sales):
🔹 Communications: 37%; vs 51% LY
🔹 Computing: 26%; vs 19% LY
🔹 Automotive & Industrial: 22%; vs 16% LY
🔹 Consumer: 15%; vs 14% LY
Other Q3 Metrics:
🔹 Net Income: $191M (Est. $191M) 🟡; vs $127M LY
🔹 EBITDA: $435M (Est. $440M) 🔴; vs $340M LY
🔹 Operating Margin: 11.3%; vs 8.0% LY
🔹 Cash & Short-Term Investments: $2.4B
🔹 Total Debt: $2.5B
Key Updates:
🔹 Share repurchases: ~$32M
Comments:
🔸 “We are executing on our strategy, advancing key customer programs and benefiting from expanding customer commitments that improve visibility and support disciplined investment to meet future demand.”
$amkr will have a 12B plant that is worth 120% of company at current prices
I can't wait to have like 5 years of experience and clear 250k per year by the time I'm 30 and be a senior FP&A at some tech firm with fully remote job. This is the life
$ETOR is a long here. Yes, heavy competition and losing customers. However, inflation is a structural tailwind from asset prices increasing which increases assets on platform. More assets, higher fees, growth regardless of losing customers.
It's hard to estimate how much their cash can improve their margins going forward because of the increased interest income. More cash, more interest income, higher net income, and the cycle repeats. Boring thesis, but it works.




